Kicking off this week’s action in college football, the Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) and South Alabama Jaguars (1-2) meet on Thursday, Sept. 19, to open up Sun Belt Conference play. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Mountaineers used an impressive comeback at East Carolina in Week 3 to move to 2-1 on the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars picked up their first win of the year in a dominant effort over Northwestern State last weekend.
App State comes into this game as a 7-point favorite, while the over/under sits at 63.5.
A conference showdown to open Week 4 is exactly what the doctor ordered. So, let’s dive into my South Alabama vs. App State predictions and my college football picks and predictions for Week 4 on Thursday.
South Alabama vs. App State Pick
- Prediction: App State -7
My South Alabama-App State best bet is on the Mountaineers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs App State Odds, Spread, Line
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
- South Alabama vs Appalachian State Point Spread: South Alabama +7.5 · Appalachian State -7.5
- South Alabama vs Appalachian State Total: Over/Under 62.5 Points
- South Alabama vs Appalachian State Moneyline: South Alabama ML +230 · Appalachian State ML -280
College Football Preview
South Alabama Jaguars: Coaching Staff Turnover in Mobile
It was an interesting offseason for South Alabama. Former head coach Kane Wommack guided the program to two bowl games in his three seasons in Mobile but left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama under Kalen DeBoer.
The Jaguars also lost their own defensive coordinator after Corey Batoon took the same position at Missouri.
How did South Alabama replace two coaches who made the jump to the Southeastern Conference? It decided to hire from within by elevating Major Applewhite to head coach after serving as offensive coordinator.
This will be Applewhite's second job as head coach after guiding Houston to back-to-back winning seasons in 2017 and 2018.
So far, Applewhite’s offense has not disappointed. The Jaguars’ 87 points against Northwestern State were the most in a single game in school history. It also set a new Sun Belt Conference record for single-game points, and it was the most points scored by an FBS team since 1991.
Plus, South Alabama accomplished all of this in a contest shortened due to weather.
If Applewhite can get his defense to match the offense, he should be able to get this season back on track.
App State Mountaineers: Aguilar Leads Mountaineers
After the disappointing loss at Clemson, Appalachian State bounced back last week thanks to a great comeback against East Carolina. Those are types of performances that have become the norm under head coach Shawn Clark.
In fact, the Mountaineers have made four conference championship game appearances in the last six seasons. The only other FBS schools to do so are Alabama, Boise State, Clemson, Georgia, Oregon and Utah.
Last year was another successful campaign for Clark’s squad, as it reached the Sun Belt Championship before falling to Troy. Luckily for Clark, he returns a lot of players from that team.
The Mountaineers rank 33rd nationally in returning production with 68% coming back from the 2023 squad. That includes star quarterback Joey Aguilar.
The Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year threw for a career-high 424 yards to help App State overcome a 16-0 deficit against the Pirates last week. He’ll need another huge performance here to start conference play with a win.
Appalachian State vs. South Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Appalachian State match up statistically:
South Alabama Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 131 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 87 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 105 | |
Appalachian State Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 119 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 86 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 100 | 24 |
| PFF Coverage | 114 | 99 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 105 | 82 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 71 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (66) | 26.0 (40) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (93) | 43% (113) |
How to Bet My South Alabama vs. App State Prediction
It didn’t take me long to scan through the opening lines for college football this week before I found a bet I loved. Once I saw this South Alabama-App State line, I could only look toward the home team.
With that said, my best bet is to take Appalachian State at -7 at BetRivers, which I would bet up to -7.5. This is also a solid moneylineparlay piece if you have another partner.
Teams making the trip to Boone have to defend the pass well if they want to leave with a victory. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I don't see South Alabama doing that.
This is a Jaguars defense that allowed 415 yards and three touchdowns through the air to North Texas in the opener. The secondary followed that up by allowing new Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro to complete 71% of his passes and throw for his season-high in terms of yardage.
Ultimately, I just don't trust this new-look South Alabama squad and staff to go on the road and keep up here.
This is a team that lost the program’s winningest quarterback, a 1,000-yard rusher, a 1,300-yard receiver and a pair of defensive masterminds on the coaching staff.
Meanwhile, everything flipped for App State down the stretch last year. It won five of its last six to make the conference title game, including a win over previously undefeated James Madison.
I’ll put my money behind Aguilar and Clark at home on this short week, especially considering the Mountaineers have won 17 of their last 20 in Boone against SBC foes.
Pick: App State -7 (Play to -7.5)
How to Watch South Alabama vs. Appalachian State
| Location: | Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, Sep. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
College Football Betting Trends for Appalachian State vs. South Alabama
- Appalachian State has landed 76% of the tickets and 81% of the money.
- Total-wise, the under has taken 57% of the bets and 58% of the cash.
App State vs. South Alabama Weather
