College Football Thursday Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday nights are for football.
Along with the NFL's 49ers vs. Seahawks matchup, we'll be treated to three college football games: Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison, UTEP vs. Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech.
A Sun Belt battle followed by a Conference USA doubleheader makes for a solid Thursday night before the Week 7 college football action really picks up.
So, let's make the most of it while we still can.
Continue reading for Thursday college football odds and picks, including our top bets for the NCAAF slate on Thursday, Oct. 10.
College Football Pick: Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison
By Greg Liodice
We have a Sun Belt battle on Thursday, Oct. 10, as the first-place Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (4-1, 1-0 SBC) head to Harrisonburg, Virginia, to take on the James Madison Dukes (4-1, 0-1).
Coastal most recently had a heated battle against Old Dominion, ultimately winning 45-37. Despite placing first in the Sun Belt East, the Chanticleers are still a confusing team.
They should’ve dominated Temple but only won by 8 points. Meanwhile, the defense couldn’t stop a beach ball against ODU.
On the other side, JMU had been dominant all season long before UL Monroe got in the way. The Dukes fell to Warhawks in a close battle by the score of 21-19 in their first Sun Belt battle this season.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III struggled, completing just 43% of his passes without a touchdown while getting sacked three times.
Where does the betting value lie in this Thursday night Sun Belt showdown? Check out my Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 10.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Coastal Carolina’s offense was humming last week, and Ethan Vasko was the catalyst. Vasko had a career-best night, throwing for 367 yards and three passing touchdowns.
To that end, the Chanticleers have put together a solid offensive season – ranking fourth in Havoc Allowed, 39th in Passing PPA and 28th in Success Rate passing downs.
Vasko’s been having a party this season with a three-headed monster catching passes at an astounding rate. Jameson Tucker, Cameron Wright and Tray Taylor — Coastal's top three receivers — all average more than 17 yards per catch.
You’ll be seeing a lot of running, though, as the Chants run the ball at a top-10 rate.
Christian Washington has received the bulk of the carries. While we likely won’t see a ton of fireworks from him, he’s been an all-around workhorse. Coastal ranks 27th in Rushing Success Rate and 48th in PPA.
As shown last week, the Chanticleers defense is maddening to watch. They have a great secondary led by Matthew McDoom — a stifling defensive back with two pass breakups and an interception — Tobias Fletcher and Juan Powell.
Additionally, they have some decent pass-rushers in Tray Brown, Joah Cash, Wyatt Gedeon and Will Whitson.
However, they struggle mightily when it comes to stopping the run. ODU had a committee of backs last week and combined for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Coastal is also 96th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 82nd in Havoc.
If this defense improved, the Chanticleers could make a push as a ranked team. However, they leave much to be desired at the moment.
James Madison Dukes
Last year, the Dukes made waves for being one of the few undefeated teams in college football. This year, they dropped 70 points on North Carolina and everyone wondered if they were legit. I'd pump the brakes on that.
James Madison has an incredibly volatile offense, so it’s no wonder it dropped 70 one week and then fell to UL Monroe another.
While he’s done a great job at limiting turnovers, Barnett hasn’t been very efficient. He completes passes at a 57% rate, which is OK, but the team's underlying metrics aren’t all that impressive.
- 112th in Passing Down Success Rate
- 87th in Passing PPA
- 72nd in Passing Success Rate
On top of that, the Dukes rank 120th in Havoc Allowed, which has forced Barnett to run a lot. While it can be a positive at times, it's typically not a great sign when the quarterback leads the team in rushing attempts and yards.
Once again, the metrics don’t favor JMU’s rushing game. While George Pettaway is a decent back and hardly loses yards, not many scoring opportunities come from the ground. The Dukes rank 70th in Rushing Success Rate, 110th in PPA and 117th in explosiveness.
If the offense is so subpar, then how’s the defense? In the words of Larry David, I’d say, “pretty, pretty, pretty good.”
There are some dogs on this defense, most notably defensive linemen Khairi Manns, Eric O’Neill and Chris Fitzgerald.
It’s going to be really tough for guys like Washington to break through these trenches. JMU ranks 11th in defending the run, so I’d expect Coastal to look toward aerial attack more often.
Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison Prediction
JMU enters this game as a 9.5-point favorite, which doesn’t seem so bad considering the Dukes obliterated the Chants last season, 56-14.
I still think Coastal is a good program. However, it likes to run the ball a lot and will probably get stuffed plenty by JMU’s D-line.
Can Vasko repeat a career-best performance? I’m going to err on the side of caution and say no. Vasko can sling it, but I think JMU’s secondary is going to lock down Coastal’s three-headed receiver corps.
On the other side, I love the Chanticleers’ secondary as well, and I have no faith in Barnett. If Jordan McCloud was still manning this offense, I think we see a repeat of last year.
However, both secondaries should steal the show on Thursday night, while there's a heavy emphasis on the run game. If this doesn't hit, I give you permission to chirp me on Twitter.
Pick: Under 61.5 (-110)
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College Football Pick: UTEP vs. Western Kentucky
By John Feltman
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-2) will always be the pride of the commonwealth, even when they struggle. The Hilltoppers are hosting the UTEP Miners (0-5) on Thursday evening in Bowling Green, Kentucky at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
The Miners are having a horrific season and weren’t remotely competitive last week against Sam Houston State, 41-21.
Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers nearly pulled off a massive upset on the road at Boston College (21-20) before their bye week, so there's a lot of reason to be optimistic about their outlook for the remainder of the regular season.
Oddsmakers have the Hilltoppers as 19.5-point favorites on the spread and the total set at 57.5.
Let's dive into the matchup breakdown for Thursday night's Conference USA clash. My UTEP vs. Western Kentucky predictions are below.
UTEP Miners
It only gets tougher for UTEP, a program that was on the rise just a couple of seasons ago. The Miners now find themselves 0-5 and are nearly three-touchdown underdogs on the road.
There's no questioning that their schedule hasn't been the easiest, but their opponents haven’t exactly been elite either. They allowed 518 yards to SHSU last week and entered the matchup with below-average offensive numbers.
The Miners' offense has been a complete disaster thus far. They rank outside the top 100 in the following offensive metrics:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Havoc Allowed
- Finishing and Quality Drives
Despite those mind-numbing statistics, they're averaging 24 seconds per play, which is 20th in the nation. Just as I mentioned last week, they're going nowhere fast.
The Hilltoppers' defense has poor metrics, but it hasn't allowed opponents to sustain quality or finish drives.
Quarterback Cade McConnell got the start last week and had mixed results. He threw for 194 yards, one touchdown and one interception. There's no reason to have faith in the offense, and I feel like it's bound to get boatraced here.
Defensively, it doesn’t get any better. The Miners are 61st in PFF tackling, but I'll spare your appetite and not dive deep into their defensive metrics.
They do nothing particularly well besides tackling and have been shredded on the ground and through the air.
I'm not going to back the Miners here, no matter how ridiculously high the number climbs.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky should be 4-1, as it dominated Boston College a couple of weeks ago before letting up a 17-point lead late.
However, the Hilltoppers are still in decent position as they're 1-0 in conference play. Coming off a bye, I expect a solid effort from head coach Tyson Helton's team.
Offensively, this is a tremendous matchup for WKU’s aerial attack.
Quarterback Caden Veltkamp wasn’t projected to be the starter to begin the season, but he's been spectacular. He's been a bit careless with the ball, but he's completing 70% of his passes with eight touchdowns and four interceptions.
The Hilltoppers have struggled to run the ball, but luckily, this is an incredible matchup against an awful Miners defense. UTEP ranks outside the top 100 in defensive rushing and passing success rate.
The Hilltoppers are also top-60 in passing success rate and Havoc allowed, so they should keep the pocket clean for Veltkemp for most of the night. The Miners have a non-existing secondary and pass rush, so there's a lot to look forward to for WKU’s offense.
I would normally be concerned about the defense, but it gets a soft matchup. It's also 16th in PFF tackling, so even if the Miners break some runs or get some separation in the secondary, there shouldn’t be many missed tackles or explosive plays to worry about.
UTEP vs. Western Kentucky Prediction
I love Western Kentucky’s team total. You can snag a 38.5 right now at BetMGM, and I personally don’t think that’s high enough.
I don’t think the Miners can be trusted to contribute to the overall total, but the passing attack of the Hilltoppers should dominate.
There should be plenty of offensive possessions for the Hilltoppers, especially since the Miners strangely like to go quick on offense.
Expect a strong effort from WKU off the bye.
Pick: Western Kentucky Team Total Over 38.5 Points
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College Football Pick: Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech
By Cody Goggin
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4, 0-1 CUSA) will travel to Ruston, Louisiana, to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-3, 0-1) on Thursday night in a Conference USA matchup.
The game is set to kick off from Joe Aillet Stadium at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Both teams are coming off of a bye and have a combined 1 win on the season, so they'll each be looking to pick up win No. 2. Louisiana Tech enters as a 4.5-point favorite in a game with a total of 49 points.
Without further ado, let’s dig into my Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 10.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee has had a rough start to its season.
The Blue Raiders sit at 1-4 (0-1) and have not been particularly close in any of their games against FBS competition. However, their schedule has been difficult with Ole Miss, Duke and Memphis all classified as above-average opponents, along with a good Western Kentucky team in the conference.
Unfortunately for MTSU, it's been really bad in every game. SP+’s post-game win expectancy says the Blue Raiders haven't been the better team in any of their games this season. That includes a -6.8 projected margin against Tennessee Tech in a game MTSU won by seven.
Middle Tennessee ranks 106th in Offensive Success Rate, 124th in Finishing Drives and 96th in Havoc. The one bright spot has been a mark of 22nd in explosiveness.
The Blue Raiders pass the ball at the 11th-highest rate and sit 49th in Passing Success Rate and 47th in Passing PPA. The ground game is a different story, though, as they rank just 129th in Success Rate and 126th in Rushing PPA.
The defense for Middle Tennessee has been especially poor this year. It's 134th in Success Rate Allowed, 120th in Finishing Drives Allowed, 118th in Havoc Allowed and 91st in explosiveness allowed.
The Blue Raiders have struggled mightily in all facets, ranking 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 115th in Rushing PPA Allowed. They're also 131st in Passing PPA Allowed and 134th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
To make matters worse, they own PFF grades of 133rd pass rush, 123rd in run defense and 100th in coverage.
Ultimately, this has been an all-around bad defense.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana Tech hasn’t had better results, as it's just 1-3 to this point. The Bulldogs beat Nicholls and have since fallen to NC State, Tulsa and Florida International, which are all below-average teams within their own conferences this year.
Louisiana Tech kept those games close but ultimately fell in all of them despite adjusted margins of -5.8 or better, according to SP+.
LA Tech’s offense has been its glaring weakness. The Bulldogs rank 131st in Offensive Success Rate, 89th in Finishing Drives and 111th in Havoc Allowed.
They come in at 132nd in Success Rate on the ground and 114th through the air, but they're fourth in overall explosiveness and eighth in passing explosiveness.
The quarterback position has been a battle this season.
Jack Turner began the season as the starter before getting injured and then playing poorly in his return. It was reported that both Turner and Evan Bullock would play against FIU, but it ended up being Bullock who played the whole game, throwing for 212 yards on 37 pass attempts.
Coming out of the bye, it's unknown who the starter will be, but I'd guess Bullock earns the nod. He's averaging -0.11 EPA per Dropback to Turner’s -0.21.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have been more competitive this season, as they rank 23rd in Success Rate Allowed, including 35th against the pass and 31st against the run.
Their main deficiency has been allowing big plays, as they're 81st overall and 96th in Havoc.
Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction
Louisiana Tech is a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup. Although I wouldn’t count on it having much of a home-field advantage, it's the better team here. SP+ would agree, as it has LA Tech pegged as a 9.5-point favorite.
These teams have faced dramatically different schedules this season, which likely leads to some of the skewed results.
I think Louisiana Tech will have its better option at starting quarterback this week and take advantage of one of the worst defenses in FBS.
The Bulldogs defense is probably the best unit in this game, and while they aren’t great on an opponent-adjusted basis, I still think they'll find success against a Middle Tennessee offense that ranks 124th in SP+.
I'd take Louisiana Tech at -4.5 and would play it up to the key number of 6. Expect the Bulldogs to pull off the victory and cover in this Conference USA clash.
Pick: Louisiana Tech -4.5 (Play to -6)
