The Massachusetts Minutemen (2-6) head down to Starkville, Mississippi, to square off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7, 0-5 SEC) in a matchup of struggling teams desperate for a win.
Massachusetts enters this one following a 35-7 win at home against Wagner after dropping the 3 games prior, while the Bulldogs enter this one having dropped 7 straight.
Mississippi State had shown some life in its matchups with Georgia and Texas A&M, but it's coming off a blowout 58-25 loss at home against Arkansas.
The Bulldogs enter as -18.5 favorites with an over/under of 60.
Can the Minutemen give this struggling SEC team fits, or will the Bulldogs win this one in convincing fashion to show the SEC is just that difficult this season?
Read below for my UMass vs Mississippi State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
UMass vs Mississippi State Prediction
- UMass vs. Mississippi State Pick: Mississippi State -18
UMass vs Mississippi State Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 60 -110 / -110 | +600 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 60 -110 / -110 | -900 |
- UMass vs Mississippi State Point Spread: UMass +18.5 (-110) · Mississippi State -18.5 (-110)
- UMass vs Mississippi State Total: Over/Under 60
- UMass vs Mississippi State Moneyline: UMass +600 · Mississippi State -900
UMass vs Mississippi State Preview
Massachusetts Minutemen Betting Preview: Phommachanh Carrying Lackluster Offense
Don Brown is looking to improve upon UMass' 3-9 record from a year ago, and while this may not be the perfect spot for them to get it done, they have an opportunity.
Massachusetts has seen Missouri from the SEC earlier this year, but the Tigers have a much better team playing much better football than this Mississippi State team. Brown will need to have a good game plan in place to try and steal a road win here.
Massachusetts has averaged 19 points per game on the year with senior quarterback Taisun Phommachanh leading the team through the air and nearly doing so on the ground.
The Minutemen rely very heavily on their quarterback to make plays because they don't have many playmakers outside of him this season.
The Minutemen rank 126th in Success Rate and 122nd in Points Per Opportunity. This offense really struggles as it is, and in this one, they will be suffocated with the sounds of cowbells as they try to run their offense. I don't anticipate them doing much on their own unless they get in some short-field situations in this one.
Despite giving up 30 points per game defensively, the Minutemen defense has not been as bad as advertised from a yards-gained perspective. Their turnover-happy offense doesn't always set them up for success, as they rank 132nd in average starting field position.
The Minutemen also struggle to limit big plays and stop scoring drives. They slow teams down when they try to run a steady offense, as they rank 33rd in Success Rate allowed.
They will need to hope Mississippi State tries to not show much in this one because the Bulldogs have been known to put up quite a few points at times this season.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Expect Plenty of Passing
MSU head coach Jeff Lebby will be desperate to build some momentum for his team and win in dominant fashion for not only his players but the fans, who had been accustomed to watching a solid football team year in and year out.
Lebby is an offensive mastermind, and I figure he will come out with some nice play designs to try to put this game to rest as early as possible. But that's easier said than done when his defense has not been impressive to date.
The Bulldogs put up 27 points per game, which is significant scoring for a team with a 1-7 record on the year. With quarterback Blake Shapen out for the season, the Bulldogs have been rolling with freshman Michael Van Buren Jr.
It's not easy for a freshman quarterback to come in on the fly and compete in the SEC, especially when his team doesn't have as much talent as some of the other teams in the conference.
This week, though, he'll have the more talented team on his sideline in Starkville, so it feels like a game where he could boost his confidence, limit turnovers and play well.
The Mississippi State passing attack under Lebby has been great. They rank 47th in Pass Success Rate and 36th in Pass Explosiveness. I would anticipate they throw the ball all over this Massachusetts team this week.
The Bulldogs have some talented runners on their team as well, which has led to ranking 53rd in Rush Explosiveness.
The problem for Lebby’s team is this defense.
They have been horrendous for the standard that Mississippi State had established in years prior. The Bulldogs allow 36 points per game, which is partially due to a sped up game plan to put up more points offensively. Still, this defense can't get stops.
They rank 115th in Success Rate allowed, which is normally a problem for them week in and week out, but this Massachusetts offense is very one-dimensional.
They should be able to game plan well and limit this UMass team, especially with the home crowd behind them.
UMass vs Mississippi State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UMass and Mississippi State match up statistically:
UMass Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 126 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 118 | 133 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 132 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 129 | |
| Quality Drives | 101 | 132 | |
Mississippi State Offense vs. UMass Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 97 |  |
| Line Yards | 88 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 108 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 120 |
| PFF Coverage | 66 | 131 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 131 | 36 |
| Middle 8 | 91 | 128 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (108) | 23.5 (7) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (51) | 54% (70) |
UMass vs Mississippi State Pick & Prediction
This feels like a confidence-boost game the Bulldogs need, and I would expect Lebby and his staff to have their team ready to prove something to the fans and themselves.
With how bad the Minutemen have been this season on both sides of the ball, I think the high-octane Bulldog offense will give them fits.
I also think the Bulldogs show a bit more drive and resolve on defense against a less-talented Minutemen team.
Give me the Bulldogs -18 at home.
Pick: Mississippi State -18
UMass vs Mississippi State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
UMass vs Mississippi State Betting Trends
- 49% of bets and 68% of the money are on Mississippi St to cover the spread
- 99% of bets and 100% of the money on the moneyline are on Mississippi St to win outright
- 40% of bets and 66% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
UMass vs Mississippi State Weather
