College Football Picks & Predictions for Wednesday, Oct. 23
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The second of five straight days of football is here.
Wednesday's schedule brings us two more Conference USA games, as the undefeated Liberty Flames take on the Kennesaw State Owls and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders head south to face the Jacksonville State Gamecocks.
Our college football writers took a deep dive into these matchups and came through with a pick for each.
Check out our Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Wednesday, Oct. 23 below.
Our Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Pick
Liberty continues to win, and it continues to wonder why it doesn’t get the respect of other Group of Five contenders. Wednesday’s matchup won’t do much to change that regardless of the outcome.
Liberty (5-0, 3-0 CUSA) owns the nation’s longest regular-season winning streak (17) but has some work to do if it intends to earn the Group of 5's automatic playoff berth. Currently, four teams from outside the Power 4 are ranked ahead of the Flames, who are in the "Others Receiving Votes" category.
Kennesaw State (0-6, 0-2), meanwhile, is neck and neck for the worst team in all of the FBS. The Owls are 1 of 2 remaining FBS teams without a win, and a 4-score spread against Liberty doesn’t suggest that's likely to change any time soon.
Liberty failed to cover the spread the last time out, needing overtime to take down FIU. Will the Flames reignite against the Owls?
Let's dive into my Liberty vs. Kennesaw State predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 23.
Liberty Flames
Head coach Jamey Chadwell has yet to lose a regular-season game in his two-year tenure at Liberty, but the Flames have not been nearly as dominant as they were in his first year at the helm.
The Flames are still a run-first offense, ranking 19th and 41st in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively, but their game average has dropped from nearly 300 yards rushing per game in 2023 to 229.4 yards this season.
The ground game has been far less effective when it comes to finding the end zone as well, having scored just 13 touchdowns halfway through the season. Last season, the Flames scored 39 times on the ground.
Kaidon Salter remains the engine of the offense. The dual-threat quarterback has passed for over 1,000 yards and is third on the team in rushing.
Running backs Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas, who have combined for 10 rushing touchdowns, will likely see heavy work against a weak Kennesaw State front as well.
Liberty’s defense remains one of the best in the conference, leading Conference USA in scoring (21.2) and total defense (321.0 yards per game).
The Flames have held two of their last three opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing, which would be huge in this matchup against a Kennesaw State team that favors the run.
Kennesaw State Owls
FCS-to-FBS transitions are never expected to be easy, and Kennesaw State is no exception.
The winless Owls have lost all but one game by double digits. The only game they kept to a single-digit deficit was last week against Middle Tennessee when Kennesaw State scored all of five total points.
The Owls offense has failed to take flight. The run-heavy attack ranks just 105th in Rush Success, and only one player with at least 25 carries — Michael Benefield — is averaging more than 2.6 yards per carry.
Kennesaw State sits dead last in FBS scoring, averaging just 13.0 points per game, and it has scored just six offensive touchdowns through six games.
Defensively, it hasn’t been significantly better. The Owls rank outside of the top 100 in Rush Success allowed and Pass Success allowed.
They’re also just two weeks removed from one of the worst defensive performances against the run all season when Jacksonville State rushed for 384 yards and eight touchdowns on 53 carries.
Liberty is likely to have a similar game plan, which does not portend well for the Owls.
Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Prediction
Despite the obvious mismatch at hand, the Owls rarely get blown out by as much as this spread. Five of the Owls’ six losses have been decided by 21 or fewer points.
But I can’t bring myself to back arguably the worst team in the country here.
Instead, the total is the better angle.
The Owls are averaging one touchdown per game, and Liberty is one of the best defenses in Conference USA. Both of these teams also rely on their ground game and run two of the slowest offenses in the FBS.
Liberty has played one game since Sept. 22, so its offense may still be a little rusty and not run at full efficiency. This game won’t be pretty, and points should be few and far between.
Pick: Under 46.5
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Our Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State Pick
By Brett Pund
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-5, 1-2 CUSA) and Jacksonville State Gamecocks (3-3, 2-0) meet at AmFirst Stadium on Wednesday night for Conference USA midweek action. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Gamecocks come into this matchup fresh from their bye, riding a 3-game winning streak that all included dominant showings.
Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders got back on track with a 14-5 conference win over Kennesaw State last week, stopping a run of 5 straight losses.
This feels like a huge mismatch on paper, and I believe it plays out that way.
Let’s preview the action, as I make my Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 23.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
After a season off from coaching, Derek Mason decided to make his return on the sidelines by taking over the head role at Middle Tennessee.
Mason should be familiar with the area after seven seasons at Vanderbilt, which is just 36 miles from Murfreesboro. During his time in Nashville, he led the Commodores to a pair of bowl games.
Now, he's tasked with turning around this Middle Tennessee program.
Luckily for Mason, he has a solid quarterback to lean on in Nicholas Vattiato. The signal-caller ranks in the top 10 in the Group of Five with 251.4 passing yards per game, and he's 25th nationally among all quarterbacks in completions per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, MTSU’s unit had its best showing last week in the win over Kennesaw State. The Blue Raiders held KSU out of the end zone, and they’ll need another big showing here.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State had a memorable season in the program’s first year in the FBS in 2023. Unfortunately for JSU, the momentum didn’t carry over into this campaign, leading to a slow start.
To open 2024, the Gamecocks lost their first three games against Coastal Carolina, Louisville and Eastern Michigan. However, the schedule has lightened up over the last two weeks, and head coach Rich Rodriguez’s team has dominated.
Jacksonville State scored a combined 161 points in the victories over Southern Miss, Kennesaw State and New Mexico State.
The plan for attack in those wins was spearheaded by the ground game, and I don’t see that changing here.
When beating the Golden Eagles, the Gamecocks rushed for 273 yards and five touchdowns. They followed that up with 384 yards on 7.2 yards per carry and another eight scores on the ground against the Owls.
I expect a veteran coach like Rodriguez to build on this success as his team gets into conference play, and I believe this still should be a top program in Conference USA.
Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State Prediction
I’m looking to back the home team in this mismatch, but I want to find a better option than the large spread. This leads me to the team total, which I think is the best route to take.
With that said, my best bet is for Jacksonville State to fly over its team total of 41.5 at -130 odds at DraftKings. I would play this number up to -145 before shifting to 42.5 at -120 or better.
Yes, the Blue Raiders put together a great defensive performance last week. However, I think you have to credit that to the fact that they were facing Kennesaw State.
The same cann't be said when MTSU has faced competent opponents. In fact, Middle Tennessee has allowed four of its previous five FBS foes to top this same team total.
It's one thing to get gashed against solid offenses like Ole Miss and Western Kentucky. The alarming ones are when you see that Duke and Louisiana Tech also topped this number.
The other thing that helps this bet is the fact that Jacksonville State doesn't lay off the gas under Rodriguez. The Gamecocks rolled up 23 points in the second half in their blowout win over Southern Miss.
They followed that up by lighting up the scoreboard for 21 points in the fourth quarter against Kennesaw State and 21 after halftime against New Mexico State.
All of those opponents are similar in power rating, and I just believe Jacksonville State will be too much here.
Give me the Gamecocks to continue to fly on offense with a big showing here.
Pick: Jacksonville State Team Total Over 41.5 (Play to 42.5)
