You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
So, it's time to dive in for Week 3.
To kick off our action in Week 3, we're rolling with two SEC teams that just happen to be -10.5 favorites in the evening window.
Week 3 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Favorites
Collin Wilson: Vanderbilt -10.5 at Georgia State
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
I'm going Vanderbilt -10.5 here.
How bad is this Georgia State team? Chattanooga lost to Tennessee, 69-3, then the Mocs turned around and almost beat Georgia State before losing, 24-21, in Atlanta. I projected the Panthers to be a bottom-tier team in the Sun Belt this season, and they're living up to that.
For Vanderbilt, it all starts with the influx of New Mexico State influence on the offensive side with Jerry Kill at offensive coordinator and Diego Pavia at quarterback. Now, Vandy's producing a top-25 mark in Quality Drives.
With Pavia at the helm, the Commodores are running the ball 74 % of time, and it's tough to stop. In fact, they're running the ball more than most service academies.
The combination of Pavia and Sedrick Alexander ranks 32nd nationally in Rushing Success Rate, putting constant pressure on defenses to stop these inside zone reads and some man schemes.
The problem for Georgia State is that in ranks 112th in Defensive Stuff Rate and 105th at the distance of first contact. Those are terrible numbers to have when playing a team that wants to run the ball like Vanderbilt does.
It's also worth noting that Vandy's run-heavy offense will take Georgia State's best defensive player — cornerback Gavin Pringle — out of the equation.
The next question is, can Georgia State handle what Pavia and Co. want to do in the red zone? Probably not, considering it ranks 126th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Chattanooga and Georgia Tech posted eight drives that crossed the Panthers' 40-yard line and averaged 5.3 points per attempt on those possessions. Vanderbilt has been in the red zone 10 times already this season and finished with eight touchdowns and two field goals.
On the other side, quarterback Christian Veilleux transferred in from Pitt, and he's been decent with a 72% adjusted completion percentage, three touchdowns and no turnover-worthy plays.
The problem is that Georgia State has a massive Havoc Allowed issue. The Panthers can't protect the quarterback or prevent tackles for loss. In fact, Georgia State has already given up 14 tackles for loss through two games, while the Commodores have created 14 tackles for loss.
Also, the 'Dores have 11 passes defensed, which combines pass breakups and interceptions. So, even if Georgia State puts the ball in the air, this Vandy defense led by the defensive-minded Clark Lea can swat it down.
There are a lot of problems here, even down to special teams. SP+ has Vanderbilt ranked 11th and Georgia State at 84th.
I'll take Vandy to win and cover here.
Stuckey: Mississippi State -10.5 vs. Toledo
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -395 |
I'm hoping Mississippi State gets back to 10, but I'll play it regardless.
I don't think the market has fully adjusted to how bad this Toledo team is. In fact, it should have lost to UMass last week after posting had a 26% Success Rate.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason was 5-of-21 throwing the ball against this Minutemen defense at one point. Plus, it doesn't help that it's a mess up front after all five offensive linemen departed.
The Rockets' biggest offensive weapons — namely, quarterback Daquan Finn and running back Peny Boone — transferred to Baylor and UCF, respectively, giving Toledo a ton to replace on the offensive side of the ball.
They do have some pieces on the outside like Jerjuan Newton, but Gleason has completed only 48.9% of his passes in his career, so head coach Jason Candle can't really get the ball to his playmakers.
For those keeping track at home, Gleason has completed 114 out of his 233 career attempts. Going 8-of-23 against UMass won't help those numbers.
And on the other side of the ball, Toledo's defense is seeing a huge drop-off. That's what happens when you lose two cornerbacks to the NFL — including a first-round pick in Quinyon Mitchell — and another to Wisconsin.
Those losses are huge by themselves, but Toledo also lost its do-everything safety and two top pass-rushers. You don't just replace players like that in the MAC.
How do you attack this Toledo defense? Vertical deep shots against this 2-4-5 defense. That's what Mississippi State's going to do.
Despite losing to Arizona State last week, the Bulldogs were actually better on a down-to-down basis. They were burned when quarterback Blake Shapen lost the ball, which turned into a scoop-and-score and played a big role in the Bulldogs' 7-point loss.
Outside of that, they played well.
I was a little concerned about how this team would be feeling physically coming off a week in the Tempe heat, but Toledo might be in an even worse situation. UMass ran 90 plays against the Rockets, and their defense was on the field for nearly 45 minutes of game action.
UMass went up and down the field, but you wouldn't know it from looking at the final score. Toledo found some luck with a kick-return touchdown and then scored another touchdown late when UMass went for an onside kick and didn't get it. Plus, the Minutemen had three personal fouls.
UMass was the much better team on a down-to-down basis.
It's also worth noting that the Rockets ran for 375 yards on 9.6 yards per carry in this game last season. Those marks dropped to 83 and 3.8 this season, showcasing how much this offensive line is struggling.
While Mississippi State's defensive line isn't great, it's not going to get pushed around by a brand-new Toledo offensive line that can't handle UMass.
The Rockets might be the fourth-best team in the MAC this year, which is crazy to say because they're usually at the top from a talent perspective. However, things are bound to fall off when there's so much production to replace.
Give me the more talented home favorite that will maximize the number of possessions with uptempo pace in a game where it should enjoy significant matchup advantages on both sides of the ball.
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