Week 3 College Football Saturday Night Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been an incredible day of college football, but it's not over yet — far from it.
Saturday night's college football slate is loaded, and our NCAAF writers came through with eight — that's right, eight — best bets for the games starting at 7 and 7:30 p.m. ET.
Maybe you're looking to back the defense of the nation's No. 1 team or fade Coach Prime in an in-state rivalry game. Or, perhaps you'd rather back a potential Big Ten dark horse on a West Coast swing or participate in a classic Saturday night tradition like betting the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Either way, we have you covered.
Continue reading for all eight of our Week 3 college football best bets for Saturday night — and be sure to check out our eight other best bets for Saturday's noon and afternoon kickoff windows.
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Vanderbilt vs. Georgia State Best Bet
By Cody Goggin
Vanderbilt has looked dramatically better this season on offense with Jerry Kill joining the coaching staff and Diego Pavia at quarterback.
In Week 1, the Dores had an 89th-percentile Offensive Success Rate and an 83rd-percentile EPA per play against a Virginia Tech defense that was expected to rank in the top 40 in FBS this season and was returning almost all of its production.
The Commodores followed this performance up with a dominant 55-0 victory over Alcorn State. This is a game that they obviously should win by a ton as an SEC team, but this hasn’t always been the case for Vanderbilt.
In this game, the Commodores had a 98th-percentile Success Rate and an 86th-percentile EPA per play, despite playing with a lead and hardly passing.
I’m buying into Vanderbilt’s improvement on this side of the ball, and I think that it should be able to have another good day against Georgia State. Vanderbilt returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense, making it an experienced team.
Last weekend, Georgia State barely survived in a three-point victory against Chattanooga. Chattanooga is an above-average FCS team, but it isn’t one of the top teams at this level right now, so this is concerning for the Panthers.
Georgia State also lost by 23 to Georgia Tech in Week 1 as the Yellow Jackets were able to put up 8.46 yards per play and an 86th-percentile EPA per play.
Last year, Georgia State’s defense ranked 109th in SP+. This year, it has a new defensive coordinator and returned just six starters.
On offense, Georgia State was good last year, but it returned only four starters this season, and it hasn’t looked great to this point.
With this spread only at 10.5, I like backing Vanderbilt to pick up an easy road win over this Group of Five opponent. I think that Vanderbilt is much improved from last season, particularly on offense, and that the market hasn’t yet fully caught onto this.
Pick: Vanderbilt -9.5 (Play to -11.5)
Hawaii vs. Sam Houston Best Bet
I was higher than the market on Hawaii entering the season, and I like what I’ve seen so far.
The Rainbow Warriors rolled through Delaware State in Week 0 during a windstorm and then lost by three on a late field goal in a hard-fought game against UCLA.
This defense has looked much improved under new defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. They have allowed just 14 and 16 points in the first two games and are giving up just 4.9 yards per play.
The pass defense has especially been terrific, which is Thurman’s specialty as the former New York Jets defensive backs coach. Hawaii is allowing an opponent completion percentage of just 53.7%, and the Bows picked off UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers twice.
The Rainbow Warriors have racked up 10 PBUs with their secondary and 17 TFLs with their front in just two games. I expect another strong performance from them against a poor Sam Houston offense.
Hunter Watson was a surprising starter in the season opener. While he looked good against Rice, he came crashing back to Earth in a brutal showing against UCF. He threw two interceptions and was benched for Jase Bauer in the third quarter.
The Bearkats can’t run the ball. They are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, which is actually an improvement from the 2.9 yards they averaged last season.
Hawaii has a veteran quarterback in Brayden Schager and a stud wide receiver in Pofele Ashlock – who put up over 100 yards and a touchdown against UCLA.
The Bows are still figuring out the running back rotation with Landon Sims and the Boston College transfer Cam Barfield. Still, UCF torched the Bearkats on the ground last week, rushing for 6.7 yards per carry and six touchdowns.
Obviously, they won’t be able to replicate that production, but the Rainbow Warriors have the better offense in this game, and their defense has also looked much better.
This is also an advantageous spot for Hawaii coming off a bye, a big advantage for them as they travel to the mainland.
I project Hawaii as the better team here, and the Rainbow Warriors should win this game outright.
Pick: Hawaii +4.5 (Play to +3)
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USF vs. Southern Miss Best Bet
By John Feltman
USF is coming off a valiant effort against Alabama in Tuscaloosa last weekend and now hits the road once again to face Southern Miss. It’s a complete mismatch for the Golden Eagles, and the Bulls have a ton of areas they can exploit.
First off, USF ranks 26th in Total EPA on defense. It created a ton of Havoc last week against an Alabama team that’s head and shoulders higher from a talent perspective.
The defense ranks 30th in Success Rate, and it now has a chance to face a Golden Eagles offense that has struggled in their first two contests.
Offensively, the Bulls have one of the most rapid paces in the country and rely heavily on their ground attack.
The Southern MIss defense has struggled mightily against the run through two weeks, so I expect the Bulls to take full advantage.
Quarterback Byrum Brown has to be better through the air, but he may not need his arm this week at all for the Bulls to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Many public bettors have gone ahead and have wagered on Southern Miss after seeing the final score in Tuscaloosa last week. However, the Bulls trailed by only one score until the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter.
I’m buying low on USF here. If anything, its performance against the Crimson Tide last week showed me it can be a dangerous team in the American.
Pick: USF -10.5 (Play to -12.5)
Georgia vs. Kentucky Best Bet
By Brett Pund
While I do believe Kentucky will play better defensively in this game, it doesn’t mean I think the Wildcats are going to put up many points themselves. It’ll take a huge improvement from Week 2 against a much tougher opponent to eclipse this team total.
The primary issue coach Mark Stoops’ squad had was offensive line injuries, and this isn’t going to change for this game. In fact, UK will be down two starters in Courtland Ford and Jager Burton.
The weakened unit that gave up five sacks and constant pressure against South Carolina will now face the stout Bulldogs defensive line.
We all saw how poorly transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff performed while under duress. The Wildcats were only able to muster 183 total yards on offense, and Vandagriff threw two interceptions.
Meanwhile, this also impacts Kentucky’s primary offensive threat, which would be to lean on a veteran offensive line to churn yards on the ground. Even if that was successful against South Carolina, it definitely will be a struggle now.
This is a Bulldogs defense that’s held both opponents so far to just six points combined. This includes a Clemson offense that dropped 66 points in the following contest.
This feels like an old-school SEC game that could be low-scoring, but I have more confidence in Kentucky struggling to score on Georgia.
Pick: Kentucky Team Total Under 10.5 (-115 | Play to -140)
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Colorado vs. Colorado State Best Bet
By Greg Waddell
This game will be loaded with emotion from all parties involved. But the reality is we know what to expect from Colorado by now: explosive offense, plenty of problems defensively, an offensive line that can’t hold up and chaos that stems from Deion Sanders himself.
This team’s soul was taken from it on the road in Lincoln last week, and things could get ugly against its in-state rival, which has dreams of revenge.
Colorado State has found success running the football in both of its first two games, including in its shutout loss to Texas. On the year, the Rams have run for 342 yards and 4.8 yards per carry.
Colorado is vulnerable to good running backs, as it’s allowed the lead back in both of its first two games to find the end zone twice.
Expect the Rams to establish the ground game early, throw some pressure at Shedeur Sanders and his offensive line, and jump all over their chance at revenge.
In the Coach Prime era, Colorado has won by eight or more points just two times — and one was an eight-point victory in this very game last season in overtime.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has the talent to make sure Colorado State covers at home.
Pick: Colorado State +7.5 (Play to +7)
Indiana vs. UCLA Best Bet
Curt Cignetti flat-out just wins. As he infamously said at Big Ten media day, “Google Me.”
If you did decide to scroll through the search engine and take a gander, you’d see a head coach who has never had a losing season.
Cignetti did a nice job navigating the portal – including bringing some James Madison guys with him – to build a capable roster in year one in Bloomington.
UCLA on the other hand had its roster gutted following Chip Kelly’s departure and should take a major step backwards this season.
The Bruins were fortunate to beat Hawaii in Week 1 on the island.
I don’t expect much of a home field advantage for UCLA in the Rose Bowl in this game, and the Hoosiers will be fired up to head out West for their first Big Ten game in this new look conference.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosier offense will have major advantages in this matchup, and I don’t see the UCLA offense having enough firepower to keep pace.
I like Indiana to go on the road and pick up the victory, covering the number in the process.
Pick: Indiana -3 (Play to -3.5)
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Indiana vs. UCLA Best Bet
Indiana will be playing at UCLA for its first Big Ten road game with its new additions, but the problem for the Bruins in this one is that class hasn’t even started yet.
The students won’t be in town, so the travel is the only road aspect of this one for Indiana.
The Hoosiers have looked like a much-improved team under Curt Cignetti and with Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke under center. They're averaging 57 points per game through two games, granted it’s come against low-ranking opponents.
However, Indiana’s highest-scoring game a year ago was only 41 points, so this year’s team is much improved offensively. The Hoosiers are averaging 6.5 yards per carry on the ground, as well, so they provide a balanced attack.
UCLA brings in a new coach in DeShaun Foster, and it barely escaped with a win on the island against a decent Hawaii team.
The Bruins’ defense looks solid — as would be expected given Foster’s background — but on offense, Ethan Garbers has really struggled. He’s thrown two interceptions and only has completed about 50% of his passes.
The Hoosiers will attack this UCLA offense — just like Hawaii did — and make Garbers beat them, but I just don’t see him being able to keep up with the opposing offensive unit.
The Hoosiers have a lot of experience under center with Rourke and I expect them to play a clean game, so I would take them up to -4.
Pick: Indiana -3 (Play to -4)
Air Force vs. Baylor Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
Baylor comes into this matchup off a 23-12 loss at Utah in a game where it spotted the Utes a 14-0 lead before it could blink.
Utah scored a touchdown on its second possession and was immediately set up with a three-yard scoring drive after a Baylor fumble on its third drive. The Utes also scored on a blocked field-goal return touchdown late in the first half.
Baylor battled back to win the second half, making the game competitive late. The Bears weren’t completely manhandled in the contest against a much stronger opponent.
Air Force comes in off a 17-7 loss against San Jose State.
The Air Force offense is really concerning to me in this matchup. The Flyboys are averaging a little over 200 total yards per game on offense, and the rushing numbers have been very weak compared to what we’re used to seeing.
Through two games against much weaker defenses, the Falcons’ longest rush attempt covered just 13 yards. They’re averaging just 3.1 yards per carry with no explosive rushes.
The Falcons have also been unseasonably bad on third down, going just 10-of-33 in that department.
Air Force lacks explosive playmakers at the fullback and running back positions. It also lacks a game-changing, athletic quarterback who can add a threat to the triple-option attack.
The offensive line isn’t getting the push in the trenches required to necessitate consistency running the football.
Check out what Merrimack gave up against UConn and what San Jose State gave up against Sacramento State. It’s shocking that Air Force couldn’t sustain drives against either of those opponents.
Air Force has had 25 offensive possessions to work with this season; 22 of them have seen the Falcons advance the ball less than 30 yards.
They can’t move the football regularly and don’t have the offensive firepower we’ve seen from previous Falcon teams.
Baylor saw a much better version of the Air Force triple-option attack in their bowl game matchup in 2022 and will have some familiarity defending the scheme.
As long as Baylor avoids significant untimely turnovers, this game will be firmly in the Bears’ control.
Pick: Baylor -16.5 (Play to -19)
