Week 4 is in the books, and we saw plenty of highlights. Tennessee welcomed Oklahoma to the SEC with a big win in Norman, Utah toppled Oklahoma State in a Big 12 clash, and Michigan came from behind to beat USC in the Trojans' inaugural Big Ten game.
Ell eyes will undoubtedly be on Tuscaloosa in Week 5, as Alabama hosts Georgia for a top-five SEC showdown.
However, I also see early betting value on three other games around the country: Iowa State vs. Houston, Liberty vs. Appalachian State and Tulsa vs. North Texas.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff, which is paramount when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
Iowa State vs. Houston Pick
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | N/A |
Iowa State vs. Houston Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Iowa State -20.1 | Iowa State -15.6 | Iowa State -16.7 |
Houston has one good offensive game this season. It came against a Rice team that hasn't beaten an FBS team yet.
The Cougars got shut out against Cincinnati on the road on Saturday, and I'm afraid something similar might happen here.
They haven't been able to do anything on offense yet because they rank 123rd in EPA/Play thanks to their inability to run the ball. The offensive line hasn't opened up any running lanes, ranking 101st in terms of a PFF run-blocking grade and 120th in Offensive Line Yards.
That means all of the pressure has been on Donavan Smith, who has proven to be limited as a passer.
Smith is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt with a PFF passing grade of 53. He has eclipsed 200 yards passing in a game just once this season.
Iowa State's defense ranks 12th in the country in EPA/Pass Allowed and 21st in Defensive Line Yards, so if Houston can't run the ball and Smith is forced to throw a lot, it's going to be a long day for the Cougars on offense.
On the other side, the Cyclones offense was built on big plays, as they led the country in explosiveness.
They haven't been nearly as explosive this year, but they've been much more methodical. The increase in Success Rate has only made their offense more consistent.
Quarterback Rocco Becht has been solid this season with the Iowa game being the only one in which he's really struggled.
He posted an efficient outing last weekend against Arkansas State, throwing for three touchdowns wile averaging 11.3 yards per attempt on only 18 pass attempts.
He'll be the key to this game, as Houston has done a pretty good job of stopping the run, ranking 28th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Even if Houston's defense has a decent day, I'm not sure how the Cougars are going to move the ball offensively. They won't find success on the ground, which means there will be a lot of pressure on a below-average passer in Smith.
All three projection models show value on Iowa State, so I would grab the Cyclones now at -12.
Pick: Iowa State -12 (BetMGM)
Liberty vs. App State Pick
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
Liberty vs. Appalachian State Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Liberty -7.2 | Liberty -11.1 | Liberty -8.1 |
For a team that was supposed to be one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt, Appalachian State has had two shocking games so far this season.
The Mountaineers got demolished at home by South Alabama, 48-14, on Thursday and were also blown out by Clemson, 66-20, earlier this season.
Where everything has seemingly gone wrong is on the defensive side of the ball. The 'Neers are allowing 7.4 yards per play, which is the sixth-worst mark in FBS. They can't stop the run or the pass, sitting outside the top 100 in both categories.
In this game specifically, they're going to have to stop the run — but I'm not sure they can.
App State has been dominated in the trenches, ranking 128th in Defensive Line Yards while putting no pressure on the quarterback. The Mountaineers rank 130th in Havoc on the season.
Liberty has struggled a bit to run the ball early this season, but it has seemingly found its groove in the last couple of games.
Running backs Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas have now run for over five yards per carry in back-to-back games as the Flames have moved inside the top 40 in Rushing Success Rate.
Quarterback Kaidon Salter has been really efficient as a passer as well, especially when it comes to throwing the deep ball.
He's the perfect quarterback for Liberty, as the strong ground game can pull the defense in to set up deep shots. There aren't many quarterbacks in college football who are better at throwing it over 10 yards in the air.
The Appalachian State offense, meanwhile, hasn't been clicking at all this season, coming in at 98th in EPA/Play.
The Mountaineers throw the ball at a high rate, but quarterback Joey Aguilar hasn't been good enough this season.
Turnovers have been the main problem. In his last three games, Aguilar has seven turnover-worthy plays and has really struggled under pressure. In fact, he has had to throw from a crowded pocket 28% of dropbacks and holds a PFF passing grade of 30.1 when pressured.
The Mountaineers also haven't run the ball well. They rank 73rd in EPA/Rush, while the offensive line comes in at 108th in terms of a PFF run-blocking grade.
Liberty already had a scare against New Mexico State, so I highly doubt the Flames will overlook an Appalachian State team that looks broken right now.
All three projection models show value on the Flames, and I highly doubt they close below a three-point favorite.
Pick: Liberty -3 (DraftKings)
Tulsa vs. North Texas Pick
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 69 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 69 -110o / -110u | -260 |
Tulsa vs. North Texas Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| North Texas -10.4 | North Texas -10.2 | North Texas -8.2 |
This line is a little too short on North Texas at home.
The Mean Green got back on track by beating Wyoming, 44-17, on Saturday. The way they ran the ball in that game makes me think they're going to run all over this Golden Hurricane defense.
North Texas broke off big run after big run, and it did it without main running back Damashja Harris. Harris' status for Saturday is up in the air, but Shane Porter filled in nicely and ended up going for over 100 yards while averaging 9.5 yards per carry.
The Mean Green now rank 11th in the nation in rushing explosiveness, so it doesn't seem to matter who's taking the snaps in the backfield.
Tulsa, meanwhile, ranks 104th in rushing explosiveness defensively, so this will be a great matchup for the North Texas offense.
UNT quarterback Chandler Morris has also been amazing as a passer this season and has one of the highest PFF passing grades in the country at 90.2.
He's throwing the ball at a very high rate — averaging nearly 40 attempts per game — but he's been very successful throwing from a clean pocket, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt with seven big-time throws.
The offensive line has been giving him time, as he's been under pressure on just 22% of his dropbacks.
On the other side, Tulsa has one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 120th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 126th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
The Golden Hurricane have really struggled to move the ball in their last two games. They sit outside the top 90 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate and average just 5.3 yards per play, which ranks 77th nationally.
While North Texas' defensive metrics look quite bad, they're extremely skewed due to one bad game against Texas Tech two weeks ago.
It's also worth noting that North Texas head coach Eric Morris is 11-6 against the spread and 4-1 as a favorite in his short career.
Pick: North Texas -7 (bet365)
