It’s time for Week 6 of the college football season.
With the weather cooling in most parts of the country, this weekend really feels like the beginning of things.
You have probably already sipped on your first pumpkin latte or your first pumpkin beer. You should already be brainstorming costume ideas. Maybe you have even had your first Reese’s Pumpkin.
Baseball playoffs had a fun first week, and college football has dipped its toes into the big game pool.
We get one more little week this year before Week 7’s gigantic slate. From there, the storylines and standings will crystallize as we race to the end.
But for now, it all hangs in the air; it’s the sweet intersection of anticipation and enjoyment.
This slate isn’t loaded, but there are some fun games this week, setting the table for the collisions to come. Of course, a full weekend is a chance to enjoy some games and cash some winning bets.
Let’s look at things in our Week 6 college football betting primer.
Friday, Oct. 4
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Oregon drew our attention in Week 1 when it struggled to put away Idaho from the FCS. Then the Ducks escaped again in Week 2 against Ashton Jeanty and Boise State.
But if you haven't noticed, the Ducks quietly demolished their last two opponents, running up 20-point victories over power-conference teams.
Now they're favored by 24 at home against a coach they're all too familiar with; Michigan State’s head man Jonathan Smith coached across the way at Oregon State for the past half-decade.
The matchup to know here is the Havoc discrepancy: the Spartans are 119th in Havoc allowed on offense, largely in part to inconsistent young quarterback Aidan Chiles.
Oregon’s defense is top-five in Havoc created and could have poor Mr. Chiles in a blender all Friday night.
Saturday, Oct. 5
Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Missouri, the official team of the College Football Betting Primer, kicks off the second month of the season with its first road game. The Tigers are 4-0 on the season and ranked in the top 10, but they're 0-2 ATS in their last two games and had some questionable play on offense.
This game is an 11 a.m. local kickoff; Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz must be something of a night owl, as he's only 6-12 in 11 a.m. kickoffs during his time at Mizzou.
In order to buck that trend, he'll need a big day from his offense to get right.
Perhaps the unit will perform against an Aggies defense that's 92nd in PFF coverage grading, and perhaps that spells a big day for explosive wideout Luther Burden III, who's all that and a bag of chips.
Navy vs. Air Force
The first game of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy rivalry comes to us from Colorado Springs, where Air Force is a 10-point home underdog.
The experience advantage the Falcons have held for the past few seasons has vanished, as their incredibly thin roster has struggled mightily on offense.
Their polar opposite arrives in town, as a veteran Navy squad is suddenly one of the most explosive attacks in the country.
You know the drill on service academy unders at this point, but do you know the story on service academy underdogs? Over the past two decades, in C-i-C games, the underdog covers at a rate of 62%.
SMU vs. Louisville
The SMU Mustangs are getting just shy of a touchdown as they head to Louisville for their first real conference test as a member of the ACC.
(No, I don’t think hosting Florida State in 2024 counted as much of a test.)
This will be a critical game for SMU win total tickets. The Mustangs were also a trendy sleeper bet to win the ACC, so this game will go a long way to determining if they have a chance to sneak into the league title game.
Iowa vs. Ohio State
I need you to sit down before you read any further. Iowa, yes, the Iowa Hawkeyes, has gone over the total in four games this season.
If you've properly recovered from this devastating piece of small-sample magic, you should also know that Collin Wilson thinks the game against Ohio State will go over 45 this Saturday.
His breakdown looks at the matchup advantages, including what should be a big game for superstar freshman Jeremiah Smith:
"Both offenses have advantages in moving the chains and creating scoring opportunities."
"Smith will be paired up against the lowest-graded defensive back in the Iowa secondary, while an Ohio State defense that averages 10 missed tackles a game will draw one of the most elusive running backs in the nation."
"However, Iowa's renewed commitment to scoring points — along with key advantages on both sides of the ball — calls for the total to fly over the key number of 45."
Ole Miss vs. South Carolina
Ole Miss, after dispatching four overmatched cupcakes to start the season, finally faced a real opponent last week, and paid for it dearly.
Mark Stoops’ Kentucky program pulled the shocking upset, with just enough big plays on offense and a ferocious defensive line that harassed Rebels QB Jaxson Dart all day.
Now Lane Kiffin’s crew has to bounce back as 10-point favorites on the road against a South Carolina team that – you guessed it – makes just enough big plays on offense and has a ferocious defensive line that's harassed every quarterback it's faced all year.
The Gamecocks' defensive line ranks fourth overall in PFF’s pass rush grading, and Ole Miss had a 52 pass block grade last week against the Wildcats.
This game might end with the grounds crew picking pieces of Dart out of the Williams-Brice turf.
Miami (OH) vs. Toledo
1-3 Miami (OH) is getting almost a touchdown in the Glass Bowl against the 3-1 Toledo Rockets, but Miami might be the better play.
The RedHawks have a win over common opponent UMass — which beat Toledo — and Miami’s losses are all to power-conference teams.
Sharp bettors think the RedHawks are the side. Over 3,500 bets have been tracked on this game in the Action Network app. While 79% of the tickets like Toledo to cover, 88% of the handle is on Miami (OH), a huge discrepancy indicating the big-money players are on the underdog.
Rutgers vs. Nebraska
Rutgers wants to pound the ball on the ground. The Scarlet Knights (+6.5) are one of the most rush-heavy teams in the nation and will send excellent back Kyle Monangai careening into a stiff Nebraska front (16th in EPA/rush) all day.
The play might be to take the under 40. With sustained winds around 20 mph in the forecast and with gusts up to 48, these passing offenses and the kicking games will be D.O.A.
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
Alabama’s astonishing performance against Georgia rocked the college football world, and also surged Jalen Milroe to the top of the Heisman voting odds, surpassing previous favorites like Cam Ward and Quinn Ewers.
At +200, the Tide’s dynamic playmaker is in the driver’s seat, although a blowout win and a stat-padding effort against Vanderbilt (+23) would also be helpful.
James Madison vs. UL Monroe
The James Madison Dukes have caught fire out of their bye week, as Bob Chesney’s outfit has scored 133 total points in the past two games.
Alonza Barnett III is the first signal caller to lead his team to back-to-back 63+ point games since Joe Burrow did it in 2019.
On the Action Network app, there are over 3,000 tickets tracked on the total of 48.5 in this game. An astonishing 98% of them are on the over, by far the most unity of any bet on the board this weekend.
The people believe in Barnett.
Nevada vs. San Jose State
Are you listening to the Group of Five Deep Dive? The guys have been on a heater this season, basically giving away free money every Wednesday.
This week, both Mike Calabrese and Mike Ianniello, are united on San Jose State -7 as the best G5 bet of the week.
Ken Niumatalolo’s Spartans are running the “spread-and-shred” offense, which has led them to a 4-0 ATS record. San Jose State’s offense is 17th in the country in Adjusted EPA.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas
The Volunteers are two-touchdown favorites on the road in Fayetteville, and it’s not hard to see why.
Coming off its big win in Oklahoma two weeks ago, Tennessee sits at No. 1 in the country in scoring offense.
But it’s possible the defense is actually the Vols' best side of the ball. Our Alex Hinton laid out why Tennessee’s defensive excellence will keep it in the title race all season and give value on betting quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the Heisman.
At +1500 at DraftKings, Nico is hardly a sure thing. Perhaps you want to wager some of your hard-earned money on the Vols and would prefer to take a more reliable bet.
Then look no further than the Vols in the first half. In his six years as a head coach, Josh Heupel is 28-8-1 against the first half number on the road.
UCF vs. Florida
Gus Malzahn’s UCF team takes to The Swamp to face Billy Napier and his reeling Gators.
The Knights were stampeded last week by the Colorado Buffaloes and the Gators are coming off a bye, yet UCF is favored by 2.5 against the in-state big boys.
The market might not have faith in Napier and his unreliable team, but the computers certainly do. Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the home favorite by five, and our AN Power Ratings will take the home team by three.
Miami (FL) vs. California
Miami (FL) at Cal will bookend your college football Saturday. An early morning ESPN College Gameday show from Berkeley will kick off the day, and then the on-field action will close out the nightcap.
This game will be pretty fun: Miami QB Ward is a delight to watch, and Cal’s dynamic running back Jaydn Ott should be fully healthy.
The pregame festivities, which will go on air at 6 a.m. local time, should be fun too, as the always delightful Marshawn Lynch will be the show’s guest picker.
Stuckey likes the Bears getting 10 points at home, highlighting this game in his Situational Spots weekly piece:
"I expect the Bears to come out hot with a much healthier roster for their first-ever ACC home game with College GameDay in town for the first time ever."
"Cal head coach Justin Wilcox owns a gaudy 15-7 ATS (68.2%) record as a double-digit underdog, covering by over a touchdown per game on average."
