Bills vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Predictions - September 13, 2024

DK No Sweat Bills D/ST ATD

Wouldnt let me bet u13.5 dolphins team total 1H live. Proof on twitter: https://x.com/boomersbetz/status/1834399496182399191?s=46

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Josh Allen over 0.5 Interceptions (-133 Caesars) - Thrown at least 1 pick in 9 straight games on the road - Thrown at least 1 pick in 6 straight primetime games including last year when he threw 2 picks on the road in Miami - Miami improved their secondary brining in Bills safety Jordan Poyer and adding Kendall fuller to pair with Ramsey, oh and they still have Jevon Holland - We all know Allen is a talented QB, but as all gun slinger QBs do, he turns the ball over often - This line is -145 or higher on most books so catching good value on Caesars

Buying the 0.5 to get the key number

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@Mjaybrxd tail

Penguin waddle into the endzone

It's a tough button to press, but there are many reasons to support this. The Buffalo Bills' coach, Sean McDermott, has a good track record of limiting Hill's performance in Miami. As dominant as Tyreek Hill is versus most teams, he's notably only averaging 62.2 receiving yards and has fallen short of this total in his last five meetings. As far as what's worked in the past, to counter Tyreek Hill from breaking out on the top, McDermott is known to employ two-high safety looks at high rates to prevent big plays. In Week 1 vs. the Cardinals, Bills used two-high safety looks 68.4% of the time, the 5th highest rate in the league. This strategy helped to limit Marvin Harrison’s impact in his rookie debut, running long and ineffective routes. And wiith EDGE Von Miller and Greg Rousseau both performing well in Week 1 with pressure rates of over 15%, it may be difficult for Tua to find enough time for Hill to make big plays down the field. Hill's longest reception line is set at 29.5 yards, and historical data shows that he has gone under this mark in 7 out of 8 games where he failed to surpass it. In Week 1, Hill, who is historically a better route runner against man coverage, outperformed the Jaguars secondary, which played man coverage at the highest rate. He exploded for an 80-yard catch, reaching a total of 130 yards. But now, in Week 2, he will face a Bills defense that plays man coverage at the lowest rate. Instead, they often use zone coverage to compensate for the defenders able to go 1-on-1, now without Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. This upcoming matchup should favor Waddle, as he increased his performance against this type of coverage in 2023 and with rain in the forecast, we could see some shorter routes and more running that could hurt Hill’s upside as well. . #PlayerProps

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Full analysis: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/jaylen-waddle-player-prop-prediction-for-bills-vs-dolphins-on-tnf

FanDuel

Leading the team in both targets and routes is a good thing for a rookie in game one. WR vs. CB matchup analysis is for losers, and we aren’t worried about Jalen Ramsey or anyone else covering. He makes his name on contested catch ability and he may never be all that open in his entire career. What he will be is a primary receiver for a generational QB, and 43.5 yards in a very competitive game is too low for a person with that description. #PropBet

100% hit rate vs MIA and too good of stats to not play at plus money here for the value alone.

FanDuel

W1: 3/3/42 - 21 routes and 81.8% slot% MIA COV grade was ranked #31 W1 and their slot-corner, Kader Kahou, was graded a team worst 33.1. He was also targeted the most with an average of 4.0 snaps/target Among 96 qualifying receivers W1: - Shakir ranked #10 in separation vs. zone - .308 separation score vs. zone MIA ran zone at the 11th highest rate W1 and a short turnaround can call for more zone looks on TNF Shakir vs. zone 2023 (20+ routes per game): - 81.8 RECV grade (#1 BUF) - 2.62 YPRR (#1 BUF) - 17.9 Y/REC (#1 BUF) - +6.1% TRG% increase He covered this line in 2/2 games last season vs. a T12 team in zone coverage rate with 105 and 45 yards (one of those was. MIA). Shakir ran 21 routes W1 and since 2023 when he runs 20+ routes in a game, he’s cleared this line in 6/8 games - AVG 63.6 YPG. BET365 - Playable up to 41.5

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Buffalo's offensive approach has been noticeably conservative under Joe Brady, particularly since Week 11 of last season when they ranked second in rush play rate. In their Week 1 performance, the Bills had a 47% neutral pass play rate, which would have ranked 30th in the NFL last year. That reluctance to air the ball out, along with Josh Allen’s mere four pass attempts at halftime, emphasizes the Bills' shift toward running the ball. This strategy not only limits their scoring potential but also keeps time-consuming drives in play, cutting down on the number of offensive possessions for both teams—key ingredients for an under. Miami's offense, though loaded with weapons, struggled in Week 1, and the offensive line remains a big concern. The departures of Robert Hunt and Connor Williams, along with Isaiah Wynn's absence, have left their interior line vulnerable. That vulnerability was exposed on Sunday, as Dolphins running backs could only manage 2.8 yards per carry, stalling drives and lowering their overall scoring ceiling. The reshuffled O-line will face more challenges in finding cohesion, especially against an improving Bills defense. Miami's defense, meanwhile, quietly impressed in the ground game last week. Though the Jaguars ran for 128 yards on 26 carries, Miami’s rushing defense allowed a Rush EPA per play of -0.428, the third-best mark in the NFL in Week 1. This suggests that while Buffalo will focus on the run, they may not find much success against a Dolphins defense that has clearly invested heavily in stopping the run, evidenced by their 14th-best Rush EPA per play last season. If Miami can stymie Josh Allen and James Cook on the ground, the Bills will struggle to rack up points, further supporting the under. On the flip side, Stefon Diggs' absence looms large for Buffalo, but the impact may be overstated. Without Diggs, receivers like Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel will struggle to create separation against Miami's secondary, led by Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller. Anthony Weaver, Miami’s defensive coordinator, is adept at crafting schemes to neutralize key targets, meaning Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo’s emerging tight end, may also face difficulties finding space. For Miami, whether it’s De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, or Jeff Wilson Jr. handling the running duties, the offense will rely heavily on the ground game. Head coach Mike McDaniel has a proven ability to get the most out of his running backs, but the pace will be slower, with methodical drives that bleed the clock. Moreover, the Bills were able to contain Tyreek Hill fairly well last season, and their defense looks primed to make this another difficult matchup for Miami's top playmaker. All signs point to a lower-scoring game with both teams emphasizing ball control and defense.

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… outside division unders early season Overall: 98-64-1,60% (ROI:17%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:93%) .tsa under system Overall: 188-100-3,65% (ROI:25%) Season:2-3-0,40% (ROI:-23%)

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Tua, Tyreek, and the gang

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Week 2 Hot Read 🔥

Humid, BUF run-heavy under Brady. Primetime unders 155-105-3 (60%) since 2019.