Broncos vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - November 14, 2023

@gneiffer07

@The_Oddsmaker

Given on Green Dot Daily

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/broncos-vs-bills-player-prop-bet-russell-wilson-on-monday-night-football

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Bet at FanDuel. At +130 at Bet365 and BetMGM and +150 at DK on Friday night. Grabbing now before it drops in price to reflect rest of market.

Over in 5/L6, with 10+ in each over. Missed vs KC two weeks ago, but now gets BUF who’ve allowed an off-ball LB to hit this in each game but 1 (and that was JAX, when BUF’s offense was gross). Expecting BUF to dominate TOP.

Available at FanDuel. The Bills are a great teaser leg if you can find a second dance partner, and I'd happily plug the Raiders there if they were to re-open at +1.5 or +2.5 against the Jets (they were +2.5 before last night). But the reasoning for liking the Bills there stems from how much my model likes them relative to the baseline spread of 7.5. I've got this number in the double digits, so we are getting enough of a discount to justify not getting a win if it lands on 7. The Bills have scuffled of late, but they still rank second in my model's offensive power rankings. Their defense has been the main issue, and they currently rank 27th there, but Denver is still dead last despite some recent improvements. Josh Allen's shoulder injury is a concern, but even with that, the Bills have maintained sicko levels of late-down success rate, and their early-down numbers are still respectable. With the Broncos coming off a bye and the Bills struggling, I get why this number is here. But I think that's an overreaction, so I'm on the Bills, whether it's in a straight bet here or as part of a teaser.