Chargers vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - December 1, 2024

More live value

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Buying some VVS with Kirk after this one

@GDAWG5000

@The_Oddsmaker

DK

@gogo_dino Best Bet

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Zero in back to back games

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Ladd McConkey (LAC) ⬆️ 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113 @ FanDuel) - **McConkey’s Role:** - Leads the team with a 21.6% target share as a rookie. - Over the last two games, McConkey has surpassed 80 yards in both, with 6 receptions on 6 and 9 targets. - In his last five games: - 50+ yards in all 5. - 5+ receptions in 4. - Averaging 6 targets per game in this stretch. - With unreliable options like Quentin Johnston (catch rate < 55%, drop rate ~10%) and Josh Palmer (12.5% target share), McConkey remains Herbert’s most consistent and trusted target. - **Matchup Breakdown:** - Atlanta’s Defensive Weaknesses: - Falcons rank 26th in pressure rate, giving Justin Herbert time in the pocket to find his top target. - McConkey primarily operates out of the slot (71.8% slot snaps), where Atlanta struggles the most. - Atlanta allows the 3rd highest catchable target rate (85.2%) to slot receivers. - 2nd lowest drop rate (1.6%), meaning receivers have clean opportunities to secure passes. - 6th highest catch rate (74.6%) to slot receivers. - **Key Matchup vs. Dee Alford:** - McConkey will likely see plenty of Atlanta slot cornerback Dee Alford, who has been a consistent liability: - Coverage grade of 62.8 (poor). - Allowed the most targets and receptions and 3rd most receiving yards on the Falcons' defense (despite missing a game). **Game Environment:** Atlanta’s inability to generate pressure plays perfectly into Herbert and McConkey’s strengths. With McConkey dominating targets and Atlanta’s defensive vulnerabilities in the slot, this game sets up as another strong performance for the rookie.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Bet365

All-time buy-low spot after the Ravens debacle. Leads NFL in TDs vs Zone defense (6) and leads Chargers in target share vs man defenses. Falcons play zone at top3 rate with 15TDs allowed to WRs, which is bottom-3 in NFL.

Have the Falcons favored here because they're at home off a bye while the Chargers are on a short week after playing Monday. Chargers are the better team -- external factors put me on the Falcons.

Stuckey 2

Foxhole