Commanders vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

Bobbyfades

3 of Dyami’s 4 catches have gone under this, with a 12-yard catch coming off 11 YAC vs. the Giants. Entering the regular season it is was both Dyami and Zaccheaus fighting for the WR2 wideout spot next to McLuarin but when the Commanders signed Noah Brown that and his role all changed. Looking at the splits from Week 2 to Week 3 you can see what’s been happening. Noah Brown’s snaps went from 18.4% of drawbacks 📈 to 53.3% while Dyami’s went from 55.3% of drawbacks 📉 to 23.3%. In a 71 point total shootout vs. the Bengals this was extremely concerning considering Dyami only ran on 7 of the 31 drawbacks. But while his snap count dipped, what interestingly doubled was his snaps at the fullback position and why I prefer his under longest reception. Head coach Kingsbury and his team will be without pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler and I think he’ll get creative using Dyami in his situation for screen-passes (2.2 aDOT on the season) so that way he’ll find time on the field running routes. Should this be the case, you’re asking for broken tackles and major efficiency to break this prop. #PlayerProps

Via Ahaan Rungta - The Extra Point

@SimonHunterNFL

Best Bet

DK

WSH has one of the worst secondaries in the league so far and I expect this to be a high scoring game and a lot in the passing game. WSH has given up 9 total passing TDs through just the first 3 weeks of the season and every QB has hit this line against them

ESPNbet

TD SHOW SPICY PICK NO.2 🌶️

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TAN pod best bets

Third on the Cardinals with 16 targets, despite missing a chunk of the second game. McBride now out - I expect Dortch to command more of the higher% targets. Great spot against a very weak WSH secondary who’ve allowed 20 WR rec out of the slot in three games.

Blowup spot for Harrison facing one of the worst secondaries in the league. Top wide receivers have absolutely torched them this year. Godwin/Evans/Nabers/Chase all had massive games. Then there's the Trey McBride injury. Arizona's No. 2 receiving option (and you could argue he's more of a 1B) is questionable with a concussion. I'd be surprised if he suits up. The volume should be excellent for Harrison in a great matchup and what should be a high-scoring game.

Foxhole

Marvin Harrison Jr. over 67.5 Receiving Yards Loving this spot for one of the best young players in the NFL. Marvin Harrison Jr has all the skills to be an elite NFL WR just like his dad and after a week 1 where Kyler Murray apparently didn't think it was "his job" to get him the ball, we have seen Kyler and MHJ start to get on the same page. MHJ was targeted just 3 times in their week 1 loss, but since then he has seen 8 targets and now 11 targets last week. This week he draws his best matchup vs the Commanders defense. The Commanders are ranked 31st in passing yards allowed, 27th in comp % allowing opposing QBs to complete 72% of their passes, and 23rd in yards per completion with 11.5 allowed on average. This presents an elite matchup for MHJ who is now drawing 25.6% of the target share and 37.5% in the redzone. This Commanders defense is awful and has allowed Chase, Nabers and Godwin to have massive games against them. Chase had 6 rec 118 yards and 2 TDs, Nabers had 10 rec 127 yards and 1 TD, and Godwin even as a slot guy sharing targets with Mike Evans(who had 61 yards and 2 TDs), was able to haul in 8 rec 83 yards and 1 TD vs this Commanders secondary. Digging into the coverage type this Commanders team runs, they run man 23.2% of the time and zone 71.3% of the time. This is another positive for MHJ as he has 3 rec for 40 yards vs man and 7 rec for 158 yards vs zone. With him and Kyler clicking on the same page, I don't see how they can't take advantage of this bad defense, like we have seen every other team do with their #1 WR. Cardinals TE McBride may also be out this week with a concussion, so if we get that news, I would expect MHJ lines to jump even higher

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Favorite prop of Sunday

I might be missing something here but this is a road underdog spot in a game with a 50 total. 27.5 seems fairly low. Our RotoGrinders NFL projections seem to be accounting for the Commanders desire to run the ball in more favorable scripts and still displaying an edge. In a game that I can foresee having late game urgency for the Commanders, I am siding with the prop model.

My model makes this -5.94