Falcons vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2024

2.37% ev with value at this number and projection leans to the over

Nut sack play

@SimonHunterNFL

@convince_me

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-153 devig odds with 1.62% ev giving us value and projection leans to the over

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-6-player-prop-picks-lamar-jackson-jonathan-mingo

ATL 1H TT o13.5 Week 6 best bets / TAN pod, play o1.5 TDs if your book has it or just -3.5 1H if neither available

Foxhole

Foxhole bet per @millmanc

Under 0.5 in all 5g this year and 9-of-13 (69%) dating back to last year. 1 scramble for 1 yd this year only legit rush attempt. Good kneel-down odds as -6 fav. Would bet to -210.

Pretty simple read here. Injury related or not he hasn’t had that huge rushing game in 3 weeks, perfect buy low spot in my eyes. The Panthers defense has been destroyed by injuries, young players and depth pieces are now tasked as every down starters. Total of 47 makes me lean Falcons put up points with ease and in a divisional matchup I don’t see them letting off the gas until late. Should be ground and pound with the two RBs all game. Every running back with 12+ rushes has hit this line aside from Moss and Gus. Chase brown finished 80 & Dobbins finished with 131 in those same games.

Love what we’ve seen from the Falcons on offense. They posted a lightning-quick 24.9 seconds per play in Week 5 and now rank 3rd in the league. They're 6th in pass attempts, 9th in pass rate, and 3rd in neutral pass rate. Carolina is a dream matchup. The Panthers are allowing 33 points per game, which is 4 points more than the next-closest team (Cincinnati). Their battered defense was missing Josey Jewell heading into Week 5 and lost Jadeveon Clowney during the game, adding more names to an extensive list of missing players.

Projected at -8.5 Atlanta is 12-5 straight up in their last 17 games against Carolina Carolina is 1-7 in their last 8 games Carolina is also only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games Atlanta comes in this one with some momentum beating their divisional rivals New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and now facing a Panthers team that has struggled this season A win for Atlanta here would put them in a good spot for their divisional record so there should be enough motivation for them to carry the momentum and play their best Football Link to slip: https://x.com/vegasismybitchh/status/1842970066578718805?s=46

9 mph winds combined with a decent Falcons defense and a Panthers offense that turned back into a pumpkin last week. Worry is the Falcons could do too much damage all by themselves, but with this being just their second outdoor game of the year, I'm good with it.