Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - January 21, 2023

Implied 23%. Too low even if Mahomes plays gimpy. Jags O is moving ball and D should adjust some now.

Trusting playoff Kelce here. Small on rec, then going small on Recyds/TD

DK

I know it’s KC, and they have a dynamic offense. However, it’s not uncommon for them to start slow. +6.5 is a lot damn points. Jags DST is underrated and flying under the radar amongst teams that remain in the playoffs. I liked this number at 5.5 across multiple books, especially on Barstool where you can get plus money, however I’ll take the additional point at -110 on DK.

FD: Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/travis-etienne-player-props-expert-receptions-bet-in-jaguars-vs-chiefs

Resorts World

Josh Allen has a sack in 5 of the last 6 games. Jax pressure rate top 3 back half of season and KC pass protection is mediocre and vulnerable against top pass rush. DK.

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000 and #nickgiffen @nick_giffen

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

Circa

Jags were my Hot Read and my first pick on the pod and we finally got +9.5 and might even get 10 by kickoff. Every trend tells us 1 seed home favorites are extremely overvalued in this round. 13-24-1 ATS since 03, 8-23-1 ATS (26%) favored by 10 or less. Favs over 75% win rate 15-30 ATS. The line is just too high. Jags secondary is ripe for picking but the pass pressure can change this game against mediocre pass protection. KC D also looks vulnerable and hasn't been good against top offenses so Lawrence should score with Mahomes. This is now the same line as when these teams played several months ago, which shows zero respect for a team on a W6 streak that has improved drastically since. Play the number and believe. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-every-divisional-round-game?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

If I liked it at 51.5, gotta play it at 53

Via @wheatonbrando

Caeser’s. He’s hit this in 13/17 games, and figures to be heavily involved against the Jags. Had six tackles against them back in their reg season matchup, and was targeted 8 times (allowing 8 catches). The Jags have allowed a CB to record 6+ tackles in 9/L14 games, and Sneed is the NFL leading tackler amongst CBs.

FD: see my props piece for full analysis Quickslip link: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359280928&selectionId[0]=11889891&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Kelce had 92+ in 8g this year, and he had 95+ in all 6 playoff games the last two years with 8+ catches all but one and a td all but one. Jax is 32nd DVOA vs TEs. It's Kelce SZN. Bet365. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-every-divisional-round-game

Gallant best bet

Stuckey 3

Exec Decision

Adding very small

@Stuckey2

@ChrisRaybon

Bet at FanDuel. Chiefs ranked bottom-5 in rush yards allowed to QBs. KC only gave up 10 rushing TDs this season but 4 were to QBs.

@nick_giffen

Been talking about it all week. Had to pull the trigger. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016563&selectionId[0]=50207&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Betway

At FD: Analysis on @TheTDShow on Saturday

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

Bet at PointsBet. Was +175 in W10 matchup vs Chiefs and scored twice. Chiefs 31st in TD allowed to slot and gave up 20 TD to WR overall during season, which ranked 30th. Would still play this down to +180.

JAX 6th-most zone, Smith-Schuster 2.24 YPRR vs zone 12th of 93 qualified WRs.

Kirk 2.7 y/rr vs man compared to 1.55 vs zone, KC plays man at a rate in the top quarter of all teams in NFL. KC also stinks vs slot where kirk lines up 70%+ ... median of 74 rec yds this year, which jumps to 76 in games where he played at least 90% of snaps...played 96% of snaps last week. JAX should be playing from behind too, so high passing rate.

KC D 20th Pass DVOA v 2nd easiest schedule. Jones targeted 3 times, 1 catch for 33 in first game against corner Trent McDuffie. McDuffie hasn’t met his coverage grade average since W12, targeted 11 times giving up 9 catches last two games

@wheatonbrando #BrandonAnderson

Lots of data to back this up, but like getting the hook before it moves to 51. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016565&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Chiefs averaging 20.7 points per 1H in non-SB playoff games since 2020. KC 3rd 1H scoring this season at 15.6, 18 last three games