Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - January 21, 2023

Jaguars at Chiefs

9:30 pm • NBC

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-13

20 - 27

Kansas City Chiefs

2-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Jaguars 4-13	+9.5-110	o52-112	+385
Chiefs 2-1	-9.5-112	u52-107	-505

Saturday 9:30 p.m.

January 21, 2023

GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumKansas City

JAC +9.5-110

$136.36

KC -9.5-107

1.07u

JAX +340 (Live)

Implied 23%. Too low even if Mahomes plays gimpy. Jags O is moving ball and D should adjust some now.

Under 50.5 (Live)+100

Under 58.5 (Live)-110

0.5u

JAX +7.5 (Live)-115

0.6u

mahomes legit is on one leg

JAX +235 (Live)

1.1u

Under 53 (Live)-110

KC -5.5 (1H)-135

J.Agnew Anytime TD Scorer+950

0.4u

KC -500

M.Burton Anytime TD Scorer+2000

0.1u

M.Burton First Touchdown Scorer+9000

0.05u

J.Agnew First Touchdown Scorer+4600

0.2u

J.Smith-Schuster Anytime TD Scorer+175

1.3u

JAX +9.5-110

Under 52-110

0.4u

T.Lawrence o251.5 Pass Yds-115

0.5u

KC -9-115

2.3u

KC -9.5-105

2.1u

JAX +6 (1H)-120

T.Lawrence o15.5 Rush Yds-127

0.79u

JAX +9.5-110

0.91u

Under 52.5-110

0.91u

T.Lawrence u0.5 Int+105

JAX +415

0.5u

JAX +9.5-110

JAX +10-110

JAX +6.5 (1H)-110

1.5u

I know it’s KC, and they have a dynamic offense. However, it’s not uncommon for them to start slow. +6.5 is a lot damn points. Jags DST is underrated and flying under the radar amongst teams that remain in the playoffs. I liked this number at 5.5 across multiple books, especially on Barstool where you can get plus money, however I’ll take the additional point at -110 on DK.

T.Etienne o2.5 Recs-113

FD: Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/travis-etienne-player-props-expert-receptions-bet-in-jaguars-vs-chiefs

KC o30.5-120

0.4u

Resorts World

J.Allen o0.75 Tackles + Ast+155

Josh Allen has a sack in 5 of the last 6 games. Jax pressure rate top 3 back half of season and KC pass protection is mediocre and vulnerable against top pass rush. DK.

C.Kirk Anytime TD Scorer+190

3.8u

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000 and #nickgiffen @nick_giffen

T.Lawrence o252.5 Pass Yds-115

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

T.Etienne o18.5 Rec Yds-123

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

JAX +9-110

0.91u

#simonhunter @simonhunter

Under 53-110

$50.00

JAX +9.5-110

$50.00

J.Smith-Schuster Anytime TD Scorer+185

0.2u

Circa

JAX +9.5-110

1.36u

Jags were my Hot Read and my first pick on the pod and we finally got +9.5 and might even get 10 by kickoff. Every trend tells us 1 seed home favorites are extremely overvalued in this round. 13-24-1 ATS since 03, 8-23-1 ATS (26%) favored by 10 or less. Favs over 75% win rate 15-30 ATS. The line is just too high. Jags secondary is ripe for picking but the pass pressure can change this game against mediocre pass protection. KC D also looks vulnerable and hasn't been good against top offenses so Lawrence should score with Mahomes. This is now the same line as when these teams played several months ago, which shows zero respect for a team on a W6 streak that has improved drastically since. Play the number and believe. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-every-divisional-round-game?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

JAX +400

0.5u

Pederson 6-0 ATS 5-1 SU as a playoff underdog. It was always the Jags. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-every-divisional-round-game?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

T.Kelce o99.5 Rec Yds+200

0.25u

Via @wheatonbrando

Under 53-112

0.89u

If I liked it at 51.5, gotta play it at 53

JAX +9.5-110

0.91u

If I liked it at 8.5, gotta bet it at 9.5

L.Sneed o5.5 Tackles + Ast+108

1.08u

Caeser’s. He’s hit this in 13/17 games, and figures to be heavily involved against the Jags. Had six tackles against them back in their reg season matchup, and was targeted 8 times (allowing 8 catches). The Jags have allowed a CB to record 6+ tackles in 9/L14 games, and Sneed is the NFL leading tackler amongst CBs.

T.Etienne o19.5 Rec Yds-120

1.2u

T.Etienne o2.5 Recs-123

M.Jones o27.5 Rec Yds-113

1.13u

FD: see my props piece for full analysis Quickslip link: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359280928&selectionId[0]=11889891&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

T.Lawrence o244.5 Pass Yds-120

1.2u

BetMGM: see my props piece for full analysis

T.Kelce o99.5 Rec Yds+200

1.25u

Kelce had 92+ in 8g this year, and he had 95+ in all 6 playoff games the last two years with 8+ catches all but one and a td all but one. Jax is 32nd DVOA vs TEs. It's Kelce SZN. Bet365. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-every-divisional-round-game

C.Kirk Anytime TD Scorer+190

1.9u

Gallant best bet

JAX +9-110

Anderson Best Bet

T.Etienne o17.5 Rec Yds-115

Stuckey 3

J.Smith-Schuster o51.5 Rec Yds-110

1.1u

Raybon 3

Under 52.5-110

Exec Decision

JAX +9-110

0.4u

Adding very small

T.Etienne o17.5 Rec Yds-120

0.83u

@Stuckey2

T.Etienne o18.5 Rec Yds-120

$125.00

T.Lawrence Anytime TD Scorer+400

Bet at FanDuel. Chiefs ranked bottom-5 in rush yards allowed to QBs. KC only gave up 10 rushing TDs this season but 4 were to QBs.

P.Mahomes Anytime TD Scorer+350

Bet at BetMGM. Playoff Pat: this is when you bet on Mahomes TDs. 5 rushing TD in 11 career playoff games. Jags allowed 3rd-most rushing yards to QBs.

JAX +8.5-105

0.95u

Been talking about it all week. Had to pull the trigger. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016563&selectionId[0]=50207&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

C.Kirk o64.5 Rec Yds-115

Betway

C.Kirk Anytime TD Scorer+200

$250.00

All NFL bets this week are tails of @nick_giffen

C.Kirk Anytime TD Scorer+190

1.9u

At FD: Analysis on @TheTDShow on Saturday

C.Kirk o64.5 Rec Yds-142

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

T.Etienne o17.5 Rec Yds-114

1.5u

raybon

J.Smith-Schuster o50.5 Rec Yds-114

1.14u

raybon

C.Kirk Anytime TD Scorer+200

Bet at PointsBet. Was +175 in W10 matchup vs Chiefs and scored twice. Chiefs 31st in TD allowed to slot and gave up 20 TD to WR overall during season, which ranked 30th. Would still play this down to +180.

J.Smith-Schuster o50.5 Rec Yds-114

JAX 6th-most zone, Smith-Schuster 2.24 YPRR vs zone 12th of 93 qualified WRs.

T.Etienne o15.5 Rec Yds-130

0.77u

85% of pass snaps last week. KC 28th in DVOA on passes to RBs.

C.Kirk o64.5 Rec Yds-115

1.15u

Kirk 2.7 y/rr vs man compared to 1.55 vs zone, KC plays man at a rate in the top quarter of all teams in NFL. KC also stinks vs slot where kirk lines up 70%+ ... median of 74 rec yds this year, which jumps to 76 in games where he played at least 90% of snaps...played 96% of snaps last week. JAX should be playing from behind too, so high passing rate.

T.Etienne o17.5 Rec Yds-115

At BetRivers: #Tailing Stuckey and Raybon

T.Etienne o17.5 Rec Yds-112

0.45u

M.Jones o27.5 Rec Yds-114

0.57u

KC D 20th Pass DVOA v 2nd easiest schedule. Jones targeted 3 times, 1 catch for 33 in first game against corner Trent McDuffie. McDuffie hasn’t met his coverage grade average since W12, targeted 11 times giving up 9 catches last two games

JAX +8.5-110

0.91u

@wheatonbrando #BrandonAnderson

Under 51.5-105

0.95u

Lots of data to back this up, but like getting the hook before it moves to 51. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016565&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

JAX +9-108

KC o14.5 (1H)-110

1.5u

Chiefs averaging 20.7 points per 1H in non-SB playoff games since 2020. KC 3rd 1H scoring this season at 15.6, 18 last three games

JAX +10-125

numbers too good for the price

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NFL Public Betting

Chiefs are 2-1 in their last 5 games.
Chiefs are 1-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chiefs are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Chiefs' last 3 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Chiefs' 2 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	1-2	1-1	4-4-1	1-2	1-2
Jaguars	10-7	4-3	5-3	1-3	9-4

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Chiefs	2-1	1-1	3-6	2-1	1-2
Jaguars	9-8	3-4	4-4	3-1	6-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	2-1	N/A	N/A	2-1	1-2
Jaguars	4-13	N/A	N/A	2-2	2-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jan 7th	@LV	W 31-13	-8.5 W	U 52	KC -400
Jan 1st	DEN	W 27-24	-12.5 L	O 46	KC -750
Dec 24th	SEA	W 24-10	-10.5 W	U 50.5	KC -524
Dec 18th	@HOU	W 30-24	-14.5 L	O 48.5	KC -1150
Dec 11th	@DEN	W 34-28	-9 L	O 44.5	KC -420

Logan Cooke
P
Cooke is questionable with knee
Questionable

Josh Hines-Allen
DE
Hines-Allen is out with personal
Out
Patrick Mekari
OL
Mekari is questionable with illness
Questionable
Chuma Edoga
G
Edoga is questionable with toe
Questionable
Andrew Wingard
S
Wingard is questionable with knee
Questionable
Gabe Davis
WR
Davis is out with knee
Out
Ross Matiscik
LS
Matiscik is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Trevor Lawrence
QB
Trevor Lawrence placed on injured reserve. Mac Jones will start.
Out
Walker Little
OL
Little is out with ankle
Out
Tyson Campbell
CB
Campbell is questionable with thigh
Questionable
Yasir Abdullah
LB
Abdullah is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Ventrell Miller
LB
Miller is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Maason Smith
DT
Smith is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Keilan Robinson
RB
Robinson is questionable with toe
Questionable

Skyy Moore
WR
Moore is doubtful with abdomen
Doubtful
Rashee Rice
WR
Rice is out with leg
Out
Cam Jones
LB
Jones is questionable with illness
Questionable
Jared Wiley
TE
Wiley is out with knee
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Jaguars

Total

Chiefs

349

Total Yards

362

Total Plays

5.8

Yards Per Play

5.4

Jaguars

Passing

Chiefs

217

YDS

218

24/39

Comps/Atts

27/37

YPA

5.892

1/1

TDs/INTs

3/0

2/12

Sacks/Yards

0/0

Jaguars

Rushing

Chiefs

144

Rush Yards

144

Attempts

7.579

YPC

4.8

TDs

Jaguars

Turnovers

Chiefs

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Jaguars

Efficiency

Chiefs

2/3 66.67%

Redzone

3/3 100%

7/13 0%

3rd Down

6/12 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

0/0 0%

Jaguars

First Downs

Chiefs

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Jaguars

Misc

Chiefs

5/40

Penalties/Yards

3/30

24:59

Possession

35:01

Could not load odds

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MatchupOverUnder
Jaguars 4-13	o20.5-120	u20.5-110
Chiefs 2-1	o30.5-135	u30.5-105

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - January 21, 2023

Jaguars at Chiefs

Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs

Jaguars at Chiefs Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Previews & Analysis

NFL Top Plays: Divisional Round Highlights & Betting Impact

NFL Divisional Round Betting Results

How We Live Bet the NFL Divisional Round on Saturday

NFL Top Plays: Jaguars vs Chiefs Highlights & Betting Impact

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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Public Betting Percentages

Jaguars

Public

Chiefs

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Injury Updates

Jaguars Injuries

Chiefs Injuries

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison

Jaguars at Chiefs Team Totals