Packers vs. Eagles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 7, 2024

ML has come down enough to go for small middle of higher than usual variance tease piece

One more collab with @nick_giffen

Don't love it. But price is too long at +700 On this with @GDAWG5000

FanDuel

The former second-round tight end for the Packers enters his sophomore campaign after a roller coaster of ups and downs his rookie year. Musgrave impressed out the gate in Week 1 last year collecting three straight games of a >75% snap share with at least 20+ routes ran, but eventually missing six weeks due to a lingering kidney laceration. In his absence, backup TE Tucker Kraft would fill his place with a productive 3.8 rec/g on 46.8 yards/g in the six games, but when Musgrave came back vs. the Bears in January he outsnapped 85% to 15% Kraft a telling sign to me what involvement would look like going forward between the two. Labeled at camp as a “breakout candidate” on the team, Musgrave should get a inviting matchup at Brazil vs. the Eagles especially with new DC Vic Fangio in charge - his defense plays in a shoft shell often leaving the middle of the field exposed, limiting big plays at the expense of giving up receptions to TEs. If PHI inherits MIA’s trends, their scheme can replicate the Dolphins 30th in DVOA vs. TEs in 2023. To add on that, an edge here can be for a potential uptick in opportunity with Tucker Kraft landing on the injury report missing majority of camp with a torn pec muscle and limited mid-week with a back injury. While he may be healthy, this could be another “Mark Andrews situation” where the healthier player gets more trust in Week 1. #PlayerProps

Boosted on FD

GB 2nd unluckiest D by INT rate vs expected, now get healthy at CB + add S McKinney who had a 33% INT rate on passes defended in career Collab w @GDAWG5000

Collab with @nick_giffen to the 🌙 Hurts finished as most-profitable QB for INT props in 2023 at +8.9U.

Huddle longshot 🤝 Play to +500

Last step of 🪜

Article coming.

@ChrisRaybon

@GreenDotDaily

Tailing @sandyplashkes

Avery

Bet at FanDuel. Would play to +240.

Another primetime over

@sandyplashkes made me

More than likely a 1H slapper

Fuck it, Christian Watson game

BetRivers

Fine with the 84.5 if you don’t have access to Parx or the other couple of books that are floating 82.5 still. Shiny, new toy theory. Barkley was over this in 9/14 games last season and while he may not see as high a usage, his efficiency should sky rocket. Such a threat in both the run/receiving game

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Although the Packers ranked 13th in defensive scoring last season with 21.4 points allowed per contest, they were much weaker regarding yardage, allowing 345.4 yards per game-which ranked 22nd overall. And that can be a disadvantage against the elite offense of the Eagles, one of the more feared units in the league thus far. With that said, it's a different coordinator in Jeff Hafley taking over in Green Bay, so there's surely going to be some time getting acclimated-especially since Hafley is coming from the college ranks after being the head man at Boston College. The potential issue might be getting thrown into the fire against such a dynamic offense like Philadelphia right out of the gate. The offense of the Eagles, meanwhile, is orchestrated by Jalen Hurts, who improves each year. Last season, Hurts threw for 3,858 yards with 23 touchdowns while adding 15 rushing touchdowns. It is his ability to move the team both through the air and on the ground that really makes the Eagles' attack highly unpredictable. What really makes this offense dangerous is the cast that supports it: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for over 2,500 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns last year. Adding Saquon Barkley to the backfield only bolsters one of the more potent ground games in the league last season. Coming off a 962-yard season with the Giants, Barkley will have the added benefit of running behind the elite Eagles' OL, which ranked second at PFF even without longtime center Jason Kelce. The Eagles have improved a lot on the defensive side of the ball, basically, with Vic Fangio aboard as the defensive coordinator. Fangio, despite his ranking 26th in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed last season, has vast experience and the addition of key defensive players, including linebacker Devin White and cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson, will help in solidifying the unit. ESPECIALLY AGAINST A PACKERS OFFENSE that does have its question marks with tight end Tucker Kraft listed as questionable for this game. Romeo Doubs has been cleared for this game and is good to go, but is probably not at 100%.

70+ yards in 10/16 (63%) of games last season where he played 20% of snaps (basically excluding Week 18 vs. NYG) High upside in a lethal offense where he should continue to eat and own the lion’s share of targets

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.tsa under system Overall: 186-97-3,66% (ROI:26%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Added another unit. Watson legacy game loading.

Write up coming in best bets article and on TAN pod. Packers O is the one reliable unit on the field with continuity.

Hurts was over this line in 13/16 full games last season, with two misses coming in blowout losses. I personally don’t see Saquon eating into his carry share, and I do expect the Eagles to continue to run the tush push (Sirianni said it would continue this season). The eagles had Hurts sneak 42 times in the regular season last year, even if you lower that to 16 (one per game), he still averaged 8 carries per game.

Full breakdown in Pass the Prop video over on YouTube PTP record 0-0

Most explosive WR on Packers, the Eagles allowed 2nd-most TD to WR last year. 29th in defensive DVOA vs Pass and James Bradberry is out. If Watson is back and healthy, his TD odds shouldn’t be over +200.

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Have the Packers as slight favorites thanks to their fourth-ranked passing offense from last year. With a full offseason to gel, I'm fine expecting a step forward, even though I'm not currently projecting one to occur.

Fliff