Texans vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - December 21, 2024

Texans at Chiefs

6:00 pm • NBC

Houston Texans

1-1

19 - 27

Kansas City Chiefs

2-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Texans 1-1	+4	+3.5-120	o43-108	+158
Chiefs 2-1	u48	-3.5+100	u43-112	-190

Saturday 6:00 p.m.

December 21, 2024

GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumKansas City

KC -7.5 (Live)-130

X.Worthy o39.5 Rec Yds (Live)-110

0.91u

Under 42.5-110

0.55u

HOU +3.5-120

1.2u

N.Collins Anytime TD Scorer Yes+120

0.5u

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer Yes+170

0.5u

I.Pacheco o11.5 Rush Att-122

Pro Prop of the Day

D.Hopkins o34.5 Rec Yds-135

0.74u

Free VIP Play, Join to get these plays before the line moves🫡

Under 42.5-110

1.1u

KC -2.5-154

0.65u

HOU +3.5-120

0.5u

Under 42.5-110

0.5u

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer Yes+160

🔑 Travis Kelce ATTD +160 (FanDuel) 2u System play. B- grade, 2.12% edge and a 41.34% win probability. Kelce is so so due to get one in. He owes me coin, I think he gets it done. A solid +EV play. My system calculates this at +142. Swifties stand up!

X.Worthy u1.5 Rush Yds+115

0.5u

4.94% ev

KC -3.5-105

1.9u

HOU +3.5-115

1.15u

T.Dell o39.5 Rec Yds-115

0.43u

5.73% ev

HOU +3.5-118

1.18u

X.Worthy o3.5 Recs-108

0.93u

J.Mixon Anytime TD Scorer Yes-120

1.8u

HOU +3.5-118

2.36u

Under 20.5 (1H)-120

1.2u

J.Mixon o62.5 Rush Yds-115

2.3u

HOU +3.5-115

1.15u

Under 42.5-110

@gogo_dino Best Bet

P.Mahomes o1.5 Pass TDs-105

1.05u

X.Worthy Anytime TD Scorer Yes+280

2.1u

M.Brown Anytime TD Scorer Yes+650

0.25u

N.Collins Anytime TD Scorer Yes+170

0.75u

Collab with @GDAWG5000

N.Collins Anytime TD Scorer Yes+170

Collab with @TheBMatt

J.Mixon o60.5 Rush Yds-115

THE BLITZ 📽️: 84.09 RushY 1. Tough Matchup, but Line May Be Overadjusted The Chiefs lead the league in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (63.2), but this stat is heavily influenced by the fewest rushing attempts allowed (17.3 per game). This betting line reflects Kansas City’s defensive dominance but may overlook Mixon's volume and workload. 2. Volume is Key Mixon ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing attempts per game (19.73), significantly higher than the average RBs the Chiefs have faced recently. His workload alone gives him a higher probability of hitting this number, as he’s averaging 82.7 rushing yards per game this season. Even against a stout run defense, volume often overcomes efficiency concerns. 3. Recent Success Against KC The Chiefs' recent opponents have shown they’re not invincible against the run: Jerome Ford: 7 carries for 84 yards, TD Gus Edwards/Justice Hill: Combined 18 carries for 70 yards, TD Sincere McCormick: 12 carries for 64 yards Chuba Hubbard: 16 carries for 58 yards, TD None of these backs match Mixon’s talent or role as a bell cow, yet they’ve found ways to succeed against Kansas City. 4. Game Script and Workload Expectation Kansas City has been involved in close games lately, with six straight decided by three points or less (or OT) before their 21-7 win over Cleveland. If this matchup stays competitive as expected (close spread), Mixon should continue to see a high volume of carries, making 60.5 rushing yards well within reach. 5. Injury to KC’s Run Defense The Chiefs will be without one of their top run defenders, Chamarri Conner, which could slightly weaken their ability to contain Mixon. FanDuel already has this line up to 64.5. I'll take a shot on the overcorrection.

K.Hunt o6.5 Rush Att-120

N.Collins u6.5 Recs-115

1.15u

S.Perine u1.5 Recs+105

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200

0.5u

5.65% ev

HOU +3.5-110

1.1u

C.Bullock u4.5 Tackles + Ast+100

0.5u

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

C.Bullock u4.5 Tackles + Ast+100

I.Pacheco u1.5 Recs+105

0.53u

7.16% ev

I.Smith Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1200

0.2u

T.Kelce o50.5 Rec Yds-112

1.12u

HOU +3.5-115

Under 42.5-110

1.1u

Best bet

N.Collins Anytime TD Scorer Yes+165

0.5u

3.63% ev

Over 21 (1H)+115

0.58u

2.07% ev

C.Stroud o33.5 Pass Att-104

0.48u

7.31% ev

HOU +3.5-110

1.1u

Mahomes >-3 no bueno

C.Stroud o10.5 Rush Yds-110

#BlameTrebby

HOU +3.5-110

0.5u

Over 20 (1H)-105

0.95u

+ev

HOU +3.5-110

0.25u

D.Schultz o29.5 Rec Yds-110

0.45u

D.Schultz o3.5 Recs+140

0.7u

KC +2.5-115

0.32u

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NFL Public Betting

Chiefs are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Chiefs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chiefs are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Chiefs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Chiefs' 8 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	7-9-1	3-5	4-4-1	6-7-1	1-2
Texans	7-10	3-5	4-5	4-7	3-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Chiefs	7-10	4-4	3-6	6-8	1-2
Texans	6-11	1-7	5-4	4-7	2-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	15-2	N/A	N/A	14-0	1-2
Texans	10-7	N/A	N/A	9-2	1-5

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Dec 15th	@CLE	W 21-7	-4.5 W	U 41.5	KC -227
Dec 9th	LAC	W 19-17	-4.5 L	U 43	KC -240
Nov 29th	LV	W 19-17	-13.5 L	U 42	KC -850
Nov 24th	@CAR	W 30-27	-10.5 L	O 43	KC -750
Nov 17th	@BUF	L 21-30	+2.5 L	O 47	BUF +125

Skyy Moore
WR
Moore is doubtful with abdomen
Doubtful

Rashee Rice
WR
Rice is out with leg
Out
Cam Jones
LB
Jones is questionable with illness
Questionable
Jared Wiley
TE
Wiley is out with knee
Out

Sheldon Rankins
DT
Rankins is out with illness
Out
Joe Mixon
RB
Mixon is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Christian Kirk
WR
Kirk is out with collarbone
Out
E.J. Speed
LB
Speed is questionable with knee
Questionable
Azeez Al-Shaair
LB
Al-Shaair is questionable with knee
Questionable
Casey Toohill
DE
Toohill is questionable with ribs
Questionable
John Metchie
WR
Metchie is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Christian Harris
LB
Harris is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Tank Dell
WR
Dell is out with knee
Out
Jamal Hill
LB
Hill is questionable with knee
Questionable

See more NFL Injuries

Texans

Total

Chiefs

311

Total Yards

375

Total Plays

5.4

Yards Per Play

5.4

Texans

Passing

Chiefs

244

YDS

260

23/39

Comps/Atts

28/41

5.537

YPA

5.976

2/2

TDs/INTs

1/0

2/17

Sacks/Yards

1/9

Texans

Rushing

Chiefs

Rush Yards

124

Attempts

4.941

YPC

4.429

TDs

Texans

Turnovers

Chiefs

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Texans

Efficiency

Chiefs

1/3 33.33%

Redzone

3/5 60%

7/13 0%

3rd Down

7/13 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

1/2 0%

Texans

First Downs

Chiefs

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Texans

Misc

Chiefs

6/45

Penalties/Yards

2/20

26:08

Possession

33:52

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MatchupOverUnder
Texans 1-1	o19.5-115	u19.5-105
Chiefs 2-1	o21.5-115	u21.5-105

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - December 21, 2024

Texans at Chiefs

Houston Texans

Kansas City Chiefs

Texans at Chiefs Odds

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Texans vs. Chiefs Props

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Texans vs. Chiefs Public Betting Percentages

Texans

Public

Chiefs

Bets%

Money%

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Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Chiefs vs. Texans Injury Updates

Chiefs Injuries

Texans Injuries

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison

Texans at Chiefs Team Totals