Giants vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 30, 2023

Giants at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

San Francisco Giants

7-3

5 - 4

New York Mets

4-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Carrasco			6.80	3-8
A.Cobb			3.87	7-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Giants 7-3	-1.5+118	o9-102	-140
Mets 4-8	+1.5-142	u9-120	+115

Friday 11:10 p.m.

June 30, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

NYM +125

0.5u

Bet to +120

SF -126

0.5u

SF -130

0.77u

Pretty simple, the Mets suck

SF -128

Over 9+100

0.5u

Need +100

C.Carrasco u4.5 Ks+112

Available at FanDuel. This isn't a low-strikeout matchup, by any means, but Carrasco kinda just hasn't been this guy this year. His velocity shot up in his second start off the IL, giving us a six-start sample on him with relevant velo. In that time, he has hit the over on this prop just once. Part of that could be because he had just two home games, but a 16.7% strikeout rate is a tough sell on a prop of 4.5. The whiffs have been there, especially last time out, but even in that one, he hit the over by a half strikeout. I've also got a low pitch-count projection here as Carrasco hasn't hit 90 pitches since May 25th. There are some factors lining up to make this market make sense, but I'd still like to go with the under.

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The Mets are just 7-4 (.636) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .780.

The Mets are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Joc Pederson has an OPS of .869 since last season -- 12th best among hitters with at least 361 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Dominic Leone has allowed an OPS of .813 (318 PAs) since last season -- seventh worst among qualified RPs-- third Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco's highest spin rate on fastballs since last season is 3407.0 RPM -- tied for 7th most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 2816.2

Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .566 (138 Total Bases / 244 ABs) on fastballs in 2022 -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .427 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Giants	77-85	37-44	40-41	34-46	42-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Giants	82-72-8	36-43-2	46-29-6	33-45-2	48-26-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Giants	80-82	42-39	38-43	45-35	34-46

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 29th	MIL	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIL -193
Jun 28th	MIL	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIL -155
Jun 27th	MIL	W 7-2	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -148
Jun 26th	MIL	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIL -177
Jun 25th	@PHI	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 9.5	PHI +165

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Tom Murphy
C
Murphy is out with back
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Cobb, P	79	5	3	2
LT.Rogers, P	21	1	2	1
LS.Manaea, P	15	1	1	0
RT.Rogers, P	19	1	1	0
RC.Doval, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Wade, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
2W.Flores, DH	1-5	1	1	1
3J.Pederson, RF	1-3	1	0	0
3A.Slater, PR	0-0	0	0	0
3A.Slater, LF	0-0	0	0	0
4J.Davis, 3B	0-4	1	0	0
5P.Bailey, C	1-4	1	1	3
6T.Estrada, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7B.Sabol, LF	1-4	1	0	0
7B.Johnson, PR	0-0	0	0	0
7B.Johnson, CF	0-0	0	0	0
8L.Matos, CF	1-4	0	0	0
8L.Matos, LF	1-4	0	0	0
8L.Matos, RF	1-4	0	0	0
9B.Crawford, SS	1-2	0	0	1
9C.Schmitt, PH	1-2	0	0	0
9C.Schmitt, SS	1-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Carrasco, P	92	5	6	2
RJ. Brigham, P	14	1.1	1	0
LB.Raley, P	8	0.2	2	0
RD.Robertson, P	29	1	1	2
RG.Hartwig, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	1-5	1	0	0
2F.Lindor, SS	2-4	1	0	0
3J.McNeil, 2B	2-4	0	0	2
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5D.Vogelbach, DH	0-2	0	0	0
5D.Mendick, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5D.Mendick, DH	0-1	0	0	0
5F.Alvarez, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5F.Alvarez, DH	0-1	0	0	0
6T.Pham, LF	3-4	2	1	1
7B.Baty, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
8M.Canha, RF	0-4	0	0	0
9O.Narvaez, C	0-2	0	0	1
9L.Guillorme, PH	0-0	0	0	0
9S.Marte, PR	0-0	0	0	0