Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - April 17, 2024

Guardians at Red Sox

11:10 pm • BSGL

Cleveland Guardians

8-12

0 - 2

Boston Red Sox

11-7

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Houck			3.12	9-10
B.Lively			3.82	13-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 8-12	+1.5-176	o8.5-103	+114
Red Sox 11-7	-1.5+145	u8.5-116	-135

Wednesday 11:10 p.m.

April 17, 2024

Fenway ParkBoston

BOS -134

CLE o3.5-135

2.03u

BOS -135 (F5)

0.74u

... mlb f5 low era fade Overall: 154-74-42,68% (ROI:16%) Season:0-2-1,0% (ROI:-67%)

CLE +115

Under 9-115

0.5u

J.Duran o1.5 Total Bases-135

0.37u

Ballpark pal gives this a moderate advantage for Duran and +ev bet with devig odds of -163 giving value to this number

Over 9-110

0.55u

Bet to 9.5 (-104)

Featured Insight
Guardians have a strikeout rate of 24% this season -- eighth highest in MLB. Red Sox have struck out 27% this season -- fourth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Red Sox RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Guardians right-handed hitters have struck out 29% against LHP over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Wednesday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 17, 2024 UTC

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The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.

Josh Naylor is batting .309 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- eighth best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 40% of the time since last season -- tied for ninth highest among starting pitchers with at least 71 total SL-- 94th Percentile.

Josh Naylor is batting .300 on the road since last season -- tied for 12th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Opponents are hitting .295 (74-for-251) against Tanner Houck at home since last season -- 12th worst among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP-- eighth Percentile.

Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 47% of the time (131/280) this season -- highest among in AL; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

Ben Lively has an ERA of 6.75 (42.2 IP) against division opponents since last season -- 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 4.29 -- third Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 16th	CLE	L 7-10	+1.5 L	O 8.5	CLE -121
Apr 15th	CLE	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 9.5	CLE -161
Apr 14th	LAA	W 5-4	-1.5 L	U 10	BOS -133
Apr 13th	LAA	W 7-2	+1.5 W	U 10.5	BOS -105
Apr 12th	LAA	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 9	LAA -115

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
P
Means is out with elbow
Out
David Fry
C
Fry is out with elbow
Out
Daniel Espino
P
Espino is out with shoulder
Out

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Lively, P	79	5	7	2
RN.Sandlin, P	12	1	1	0
RW.Parsons, P	25	2	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Gimenez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
5W.Brennan, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6E.Florial, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7G.Arias, CF	1-3	0	0	0
8A.Hedges, C	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P		94	9	9	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	2-4	0	0	0
2R.Devers, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3T.Casas, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
4W.Abreu, RF	0-2	0	0	0
5E.Valdez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
5B.Dalbec, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
6C.Wong, C	2-3	1	1	1
7D.Hamilton, SS	0-3	0	0	0
8P.Reyes, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
8P.Reyes, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
9C.Rafaela, CF	0-3	0	0	0