Marlins vs. Rockies Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2024

Marlins at Rockies

12:40 am • BSFL
2 - 8
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Kyle Freeland logoK.FreelandColorado Rockies logo5.245-8
Max Meyer logoM.MeyerMiami Marlins logo5.683-5

Marlins at Rockies Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins
0-0
+1.5
+1.5-165
o11-105
+119
Rockies
0-0
u11
-1.5+139
u11-115
-139
location pinThursday 12:40 a.m.
August 29, 2024
Coors FieldDenver
Marlins vs. Rockies Expert Picks
Sir Lockselot
Sir Lockselot
77d ago
Last 30d: 35-93-0 (-58.3u)
MIA +120
2u
🔑 Marlins ML +120 (DraftKings) 2u 2 bad teams, you take the value and hotter team which is Miami
Ryan Sura
Ryan Sura
78d ago
Last 30d: 100-108-5 (-12.1u)
Over 11-108
1.08u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
78d ago
Last 30d: 219-227-3 (+3.3u)
Over 11-105
1u
.tsa rockies overs Overall: 111-59-9,65% (ROI:25%) Season:2-2-0,50% (ROI:-1%)
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
78d ago
Last 30d: 104-101-4 (-7.0u)
Over 10.5-130
1.95u
The MIA bats have been top 10 in BA the L15 & L7 days. They will see K. Freeland today who’s allowing a .317 BA at night & a .304 BA vs righties. This game is at night & these hot MIA bats will have 6 righties in their lineup tonight. The COL bats have not been nearly as hot, but they’re coming off of a 6 game road trip & they hit much at home (8 runs yesterday in 1st game back). They will also face M. Mayer who has a 7.46 ERA in Aug. & allowing a .274 BA away, .284 BA at night, & equally as bad vs both lefties & righties. Both bullpens rank in the bottom 1/3 of the league & this game is at Coors (the best hitting park) with 7 mph winds blowing OUT. This is valid up to 11.5 in my eyes.
Picks  Office
Picks Office
78d ago
Last 30d: 88-110-3 (-29.3u)
Over 11+100
1u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice First off, the pitching hasn't been at its prime from either side so far, as the Marlins look to Max Meyer facing the bump against the Rockies left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland. Meyer comes into this game with a 5.44 ERA, but more telling possibly is his 5.04 xERA, which indicates his current performance is not a fluke, and his struggles will likely continue. Meyer's WHIP of 1.36 is a sure sign that he is continually letting a bunch of people on the bags, which instances tons of runs, especially in Coors Field. Furthermore, Meyer's low strikeout rate reduces his ability to get out of jams, as more balls are put in play bound to find more opportunities for the Rockies to capitalize. Meyer's high Barrel% and Hard-Hit% are equally problematic because they signal opposing hitters are making hard contact on a consistent basis against him. Against him, the average exit velocity is 90.7 mph, showing that Meyer is indeed giving up a lot of hard-hit balls, which plays well into extra-base hits or home runs in Coors Field. Kyle Freeland's outlook is hardly much better. With a 5.70 ERA and a marginally, though just as poor, 5.14 xERA, Freeland is yet another pitcher who's been consistently below average this season. His 1.49 WHIP indicates an even higher rate of baserunners than Meyer, and like Meyer, he struggles to miss bats with his low strikeout rate. This is a lack of strikeout-generating stuff, therefore a solid offensive season by the Marlins; there should be a lot of contact. The high expected batting average against Freeland supports the Marlins producing runs. His high Barrel% and Hard-Hit% also suggest that the Marlins will likely make strong contact throughout the game. As with Meyer, the average exit velocity allowed by Freeland is 90.7 mph, which often means the ball is coming off the bat hard. A recipe for disaster in the thin air of Denver. The game being in Coors Field—a place identified with high-scoring games because of the high altitude, which allows balls to travel a far distance—only adds to the probability of a high-scoring game. The weather forecast then contributes to this abhorrent environment by forecasting 89°F with a slight breeze blowing out. Warm temperatures help the ball fly further and with the wind assisting, it would not be surprising to see a few balls leave the yard and continue to drive up the score. Further enhancing the likelihood of a high-scoring total are the recent outings by both bullpens. The Marlins will have their work cut out for them in this game, though; their bullpen has not been the same of late, allowing them an ERA of 5.00 over their last 3 games. Such figures easily enable runs to cross the plate later when Meyer exits. Though the Rockies have had a pretty awful bullpen, currently holding a 7.16 ERA over their last three games. This is a poor performance that is going to suggest that even in a case where Freeland manages an outing of some sorts and manages to keep this game somewhat in check, the Marlins are probably still going to be coming up with plenty of chances to score in the later innings. This might push the total over 11 runs. Offensively, the Marlins have been a little more consistent this year with a .262 team batting average and a very strong .332 OBP, which indicates that they get on base at a pretty solid rate. This is especially applicable to their success against left-handed hurlers, given the fact that the Fish have a current .273 batting average against southpaws. With Freeland, this can easily mean a lot of scorings happening. The Marlins also feature some power in their bats, hitting almost one home run per nine innings, which should clearly be boosted within the friendly confines of Coors Field. The Rockies are still having a bad year in general but can manage to average 4.00 runs per 9 innings. While the team has managed a very low batting average of .227, the overall effect of playing at Coors Field tends to elevate those numbers. While not enormously impressive, their .379 slugging percentage might show us that they can still hit with extra bases, particularly in their home ballpark. The Rockies have also stranded plenty of runners on base, but with this, that hasn't prevented them from scoring their share of runs as well. This would indicate that when they do get hits, they tend to be of the run-producing variety, which is extremely important in what looks like a game where both starting pitchers will struggle. Looking at the recent history between these two teams, the last matchup ended in a 9-8 victory for Miami, further emphasizing the potential for a high-scoring game. Both teams have shown they can put up runs against each other, and with two struggling pitchers on the mound, this trend seems likely to continue.
Prop Bet Guy
Prop Bet Guy
78d ago
Last 30d: 74-55-0 (+12.4u)
K.Freeland u4.5 Ks-135
1.35u
Freeland is under in 10/15, including 5/7 at home. Marlins have been slightly below avg vs lefties of late with a 23% K%. But Freeland is a very below avg K pitcher (14th percentile), with the 24th lowest CSW% out of 183 qualifiers. The Marlins have also held a below avg CSW% in the 2H of the season.
Sandy  Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
78d ago
Last 30d: 119-112-0 (+12.2u)
COL o2.5 Team Total (F5)-130
1u
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
78d ago
Last 30d: 48-68-3 (-7.7u)
Over 10.5-115
0.58u
Bet to 11 (-105)

PRO Insights

Marlins logo

Marlins

MIA Insights
  • Marlins logoMarlins right-handed hitters have struck out just 15% against LHP over the last two weeks -- tied for third lowest in MLB. Rockies have a strikeout rate of just 17% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- third lowest in MLB.
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Rockies logo

Rockies

COL Insights
  • Rockies logoRockies have won 63% of their games that have been decided by one run or less this season -- third best in MLB. Marlins have won just 36% of their games that have been decided by one run or less this season -- second worst in MLB.
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Marlins vs. Rockies Previews & Analysis

  • Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card article feature image

    Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card

    Sean Zerillo
    Aug 28, 2024 UTC
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Marlins vs. Rockies Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Marlins vs. Rockies Public Betting Percentages

28%

Bets%

72%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Rockies
80-8243-3837-443-277-80
Marlins
77-8535-4642-392-1575-70

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Rockies
80-80-237-43-143-37-13-277-78-2
Marlins
85-66-1153-20-832-46-311-5-174-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Rockies
61-10137-4424-573-258-99
Marlins
62-10030-5132-494-1358-87

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Aug 28thMIAL 8-9-1.5 LO 11.5MIA -148
Aug 27thMIAW 3-2+1.5 WU 10.5COL -115
Aug 25th@NYYL 3-10+1.5 LO 9.5NYY +215
Aug 24th@NYYW 9-2+1.5 WO 9.5COL +272
Aug 23rd@NYYL 0-3+1.5 LU 8NYY +275

Marlins vs. Rockies Injury Updates

Marlins Injuries

  • Sandy Alcantara
    P

    Alcantara is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Jesus Luzardo
    P

    Luzardo is out with back

    Out

  • Max Meyer
    P

    Meyer is out with shoulder

    Out

  • Eury Perez
    P

    Perez is out with elbow

    Out

Rockies Injuries

  • Antonio Senzatela
    P

    Senzatela is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Brendan Rodgers
    IF

    Brendan Rodgers has been scratched Saturday.

    Out

  • Brenton Doyle
    OF

    Brenton Doyle has been Scratched Friday

    Out

Marlins vs. Rockies Box Score
Marlins Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Max Meyer logoRM.Meyer, P96564
Kent Emanuel logoLK.Emanuel, P150.110
Austin Kitchen logoLA. Kitchen, P331.212
George Soriano logoRG.Soriano, P20120
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Connor Norby logo1C.Norby, 2B1-4000
Jake Burger logo2J.Burger, 3B1-4000
Jonah Bride logo3J.Bride, 1B1-3100
Derek Hill logo4D.Hill, LF1-4111
Derek Hill logo4D.Hill, CF1-4111
David Hensley logo5D.Hensley, DH0-4000
Otto Lopez logo6O.Lopez, SS2-3000
Griffin Conine logo7G.Conine, RF1-4001
Cristian Pache logo8C.Pache, CF0-2000
Kyle Stowers logo8K.Stowers, PH1-2000
Kyle Stowers logo8K.Stowers, LF1-2000
Nick Fortes logo9N.Fortes, C0-3000
Jesus Sanchez logo9J.Sanchez, PH0-1000
Rockies Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Kyle Freeland logoLK.Freeland, P91652
Jeff Criswell logoRJ.Criswell, P37250
Anthony Molina logoRA.Molina, P12100
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Charlie Blackmon logo1C.Blackmon, DH1-4000
Ezequiel Tovar logo2E.Tovar, SS1-5002
Ryan McMahon logo3R.McMahon, 3B0-5000
Brenton Doyle logo4B.Doyle, CF1-3200
Michael Toglia logo5M.Toglia, 1B0-2100
Jake Cave logo6J.Cave, RF0-3000
Jordan Beck logo6J.Beck, RF0-1000
Jordan Beck logo6J.Beck, PH0-1000
Nolan Jones logo7N.Jones, LF2-3202
Drew Romo logo8D.Romo, C2-4201
Aaron Schunk logo9A.Schunk, 2B2-3111

Marlins vs. Rockies Odds Comparison

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Marlins at Rockies Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Marlins
0-0
o4.5-140
u4.5+110
Rockies
0-0
o5.5-110
u5.5-120