Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - July 4, 2023

Mets at Diamondbacks

8:10 pm • MLB Network

New York Mets

7-6

8 - 5

Arizona Diamondbacks

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Z. Davies			7.00	2-5
M.Scherzer			3.20	4-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	-1.5+110	o9-120	-154
Diamondbacks 0-0	+1.5-132	u9+100	+130

Tuesday 8:10 p.m.

July 04, 2023

Chase FieldPhoenix

Under 10.5 (Live)+123

0.5u

Under 9+100

Still thinking bout the dude who shit on my plane

B.Nimmo o0.5 Runs Scored-140

0.1u

Bet to -150

F.Lindor o0.5 HR+460

0.05u

Dingers

NYM -115

0.35u

B.Nimmo o0.5 HR+680

0.68u

B.Nimmo o1.5 Total Bases+105

0.53u

NYM -124 (F5)

1.24u

NYM -115

Under 9+105

0.5u

K.Senga o5.5 Ks-110

1.1u

Senga is over this line in 12/15 starts - one miss was first game on 4 days rest - but is 7/L7 on 5 days rest, like he has today. ARI is tough on paper (19.6% K% on the season vs righties, 21.6% L14 days). But I think their approach will get them in trouble today. ARI is actually 2nd in called strike %, and will find themselves in plenty of 2 strike counts. While they are typically saved from Ks with two strike contact, seeing Senga’s forkball for the first time has flummoxed essentially every team - and he loves unleashing it with 2 strikes. Opponents have 55 Ks in 96 PAs this season, with a 58.8% whiff rate.

NYM -120 (F5)

1.2u

NYM -120 (F5)

0.6u

Need -120

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The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.

The Mets are just 5-33 (.132) when allowing 5 or more runs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Christian Walker has 23 home runs on breaking pitches since last season -- fourth most in MLB-- 99th Percentile. David Robertson has thrown his curveball 49% of the time since last season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Christian Walker is slugging .498 on breaking pitches since last season -- tied for 12th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Brooks Raley has thrown his curveball 37% of the time since last season -- sixth highest among qualified RPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 50% (265/529) of the time this season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (81/226) against Kodai Senga this season -- 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 50 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 2nd	@LAA	L 2-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	LAA +102
Jul 2nd	@LAA	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 10	ARI +100
Jul 1st	@LAA	W 6-2	+1.5 W	U 10	ARI +130
Jun 29th	TB	L 1-6	-1.5 L	U 9.5	TB -120
Jun 29th	TB	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 9	TB +130

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Ryne Nelson
P
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Scherzer, P	101	6	9	4
LB.Raley, P	18	1	1	0
RA.Ottavino, P	19	1	2	0
RD.Smith, P	12	0.2	0	1
RD.Robertson, P	9	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	1-3	1	1	1
2T.Pham, LF	0-5	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	1-3	2	0	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
6S.Marte, RF	2-3	1	1	3
7D.Vogelbach, DH	0-2	0	0	0
7D.Stewart, PR	0-0	1	0	1
7D.Stewart, DH	0-0	1	0	1
8F.Alvarez, C	1-4	1	1	2
9B.Baty, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 3B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ. Davies, P	94	5.2	6	4
LK.Nelson, P	3	0.1	0	0
RM.Castro, P	32	1	1	2
RA.Adams, P	19	0.1	1	1
RJ.Ruiz, P	24	1.2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Perdomo, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2J.McCarthy, RF	1-3	0	0	0
2E. Longoria, PH	0-0	0	0	0
2D.Fletcher, PR	0-0	0	0	0
2D.Fletcher, CF	0-0	0	0	0
3C.Carroll, LF	2-4	1	1	2
3C.Carroll, RF	2-4	1	1	2
4C.Walker, 1B	1-4	1	1	2
4G.Moreno, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5L.Gurriel, DH	1-5	1	1	1
6E.Rivera, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7C.Kelly, C	0-4	0	0	0
8N.Ahmed, SS	1-3	1	0	0
9A.Thomas, CF	1-2	1	0	0
9K. Lewis, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9K. Lewis, LF	0-2	0	0	0