Mets vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - June 3, 2024

Mets at Nationals

10:45 pm • MASN

New York Mets

6-4

8 - 7

Washington Nationals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Gore			3.90	10-12
T.Megill			4.04	4-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 6-4	-1.5+164	o8-115	-105
Nationals 0-0	+1.5-198	u8-105	-115

Monday 10:45 p.m.

June 03, 2024

Nationals ParkWashington

WSH -120

1.2u

Under 8-105

WSH -122

$1220.00

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-135

$1000.00

M.Gore o4.5 Hits Allowed-140

0.71u

NYM +104

1.04u

Have the Mets favored here. Partly due to their better offense/relief pitching/defense but also partly due to CJ Abrams' injury. Even if Abrams plays, a shoulder is concerning for someone like him. Fine taking the plus money, even if it stinks to bet against Mackenzie Gore.

M.Vientos o1.5 Total Bases+135

1.35u

J.Martinez o1.5 Total Bases+110

T.Megill o4.5 Ks-130

1.3u

It’s a very small sample because he’s returned from injury, but Megill is coming off two strong outings: 9 K (vs the Dodgers) and 7 K (vs the Guards). More importantly, his velocity (95.5+ on his 4-seamer) and pitch modeling (110 stuff+) is closer to his 2022 numbers when he was at more than 1 K per inning. He gets the Nats today - 22% K% over the L14 days vs righties (meaning the avg pitcher would just need 23 batters faced to hit this). I’ll take a chance on Megill’s stuff.

NYM +105

1.58u

NYM +115

0.58u

Bet to +100

NYM +105 (F5)

0.53u

Bet to -105

Over 8-112

0.5u

NYM +106

1.06u

Cylor Megill

Under 8-105

$1050.00

Featured Insight
Mets have struck out just 21% since the 2022 season -- fifth lowest in MLB. Nationals have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season -- second lowest in MLB.

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The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .572.

50% of fastball strikeouts for Francisco Lindor are located out of the zone this season -- tied for 12th highest in MLB-- 91st Percentile. 48% of MacKenzie Gore fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- tied for third highest among qualified SPs-- 96th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (135/248) this season -- 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% -- second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (51/155) against MacKenzie Gore this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (82/383) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitless in 26 AB's against Tylor Megill with two-strikes over the last 14 days -- best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .154 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 2nd	@CLE	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 8	WSH +111
Jun 1st	@CLE	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 7.5	CLE +120
May 31st	@CLE	L 1-7	+1.5 L	O 7.5	CLE +195
May 30th	@ATL	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 9	WSH +155
May 29th	@ATL	W 7-2	+1.5 W	O 8.5	WSH +126

Alex Call
OF
Call is out with foot
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Jeff McNeil
IF
McNeil is out with wrist
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P	87	5	4	4
RA.Houser, P	49	2.1	0	0
RD.Smith, P	10	0.2	1	0
RA.Ottavino, P	13	0.1	0	2
LJ.Diekman, P	9	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	1-3	0	0	1
2P.Alonso, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, LF	2-5	0	0	0
4J.Martinez, DH	1-4	2	0	0
5S.Marte, RF	3-5	2	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	2-3	2	1	1
7H.Bader, CF	0-3	0	0	2
8J.Iglesias, 2B	3-5	2	0	1
9L.Torrens, C	1-4	0	0	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Gore, P	92	4.1	2	6
RD.Floro, P	14	0.2	0	1
RJ.Barnes, P	25	1	1	0
RJ.Weems, P	24	2	3	0
RT.Rainey, P	21	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Thomas, CF	2-5	0	0	0
2E.Rosario, RF	2-4	1	0	0
3L.Garcia, 2B	0-4	1	0	0
4K.Ruiz, DH	1-4	1	0	0
5N.Senzel, 3B	1-4	2	0	0
6J.Winker, LF	3-4	0	0	3
6N.Nunez, PR	0-0	0	0	0
7I.Vargas, SS	1-5	1	0	1
8J.Gallo, 1B	1-3	1	1	2
8J.Meneses, PH	0-0	0	0	1
9D.Millas, C	0-4	0	0	0