Orioles vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 6, 2023

Orioles at Braves

11:15 pm • FOX

Baltimore Orioles

6-8

4 - 5

Atlanta Braves

7-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Strider			3.86	20-5
K.Bradish			2.83	12-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 6-8	+1.5+107	o8.5-102	+212
Braves 7-5	-1.5-130	u8.5-120	-265

Saturday 11:15 p.m.

May 06, 2023

Truist ParkAtlanta

S.Strider u18.5 Outs-145

MGM. This orioles team just works the count - 7th in pitches per PA, and the third highest walk rate. Strider, by virtue of being really hard to hit, still is under this line in 5/6 starts (and with an unsustainable strike rate of 70%). It’s juicy, but I have fair odds here more at -190. Comfortable up to -160.

BAL +220

0.25u

Small to +210

Under 4.5 (F5)-125

1.2u

-115

ATL o4.5-120

Under 8.5-115

1.15u

Under 8.5-115

0.58u

Bet to 8 (-107)

Under 4.5 (F5)-120

0.6u

Bet to -125

The MLB Best Bet Catching 4/5 PRO Signals
Alex Kolodziej•
May 6, 2023 UTC
Saturday NRFI Picks: Back Drew Rasmussen & Spencer Strider
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The Braves are 6-3 (.667) when their opponents score in the first inning this season -- tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

The Braves are just 7-8 (.467) at home this season -- 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.

The Orioles are 4-3 (.571) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season -- 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Adam Frazier had an OPS of just .619 last season -- fourth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Max Fried allowed an OPS of just .581 (733 PAs) last season -- 14th best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has not struck out any hitters in 16 PA's in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season -- tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- second Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (57 SO in 139 PAs) this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	BAL	L 4-9	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -222
May 4th	@MIA	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	ATL -105
May 3rd	@MIA	W 14-6	-1.5 W	O 8.5	ATL -145
May 2nd	@MIA	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8	ATL +101
May 1st	@NYM	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 9	NYM -107

Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out with knee
Out
Joe Jimenez
P
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out with elbow
Out

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Trevor Rogers
P
Rogers is out with knee
Out
Kyle Bradish
P
Bradish is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

Chayce McDermott
P
McDermott is questionable with back
Questionable

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Bradish, P	86	5	4	3
LC.Perez, P	16	1.1	1	0
RB.Baker, P	19	1	0	1
LD.Coulombe, P	14	0.2	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Mullins, CF	1-4	0	0
2A.Rutschman, C	0-3	0	0
3R.Mountcastle, DH	2-4	2	0
4A.Santander, RF	2-4	2	1
5G.Henderson, 3B	0-4	0	0
6A.Frazier, 2B	1-4	0	3
7J.Mateo, SS	1-4	0	0
8K.Stowers, LF	0-2	0	0
8R.McKenna, PH	1-2	0	0
8R.McKenna, LF	1-2	0	0
9R.Urias, 1B	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Strider, P	95	5	10	2
RN.Anderson, P	19	1	0	1
LD.Lee, P	20	1	2	0
LA.Minter, P	17	1	2	0
RR.Iglesias, P	13	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	1-3	0	0	1
2M.Olson, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4S.Murphy, C	0-3	0	0	0
5E.Rosario, LF	1-3	0	0	1
5K.Pillar, PH	1-1	1	1	2
5K.Pillar, LF	1-1	1	1	2
6O.Albies, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	1
8M.Harris, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9V.Grissom, SS	2-3	1	0	0
9B.Shewmake, SS	0-0	0	0	0