Phillies vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - April 29, 2023

Phillies at Astros

12:10 am • Apple TV+

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

3 - 1

Houston Astros

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Valdez			3.46	12-11
A.Nola			4.46	12-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 1-3	+1.5-170	o7.5+100	+125
Astros 0-2	-1.5+140	u7.5-120	-150

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

April 29, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

PHI +125

0.63u

Bet365 7:58.

Under 7.5-120

Both bullpens sub-3.5 ERA/FIP. Happy Lance Barksdale day

PHI +115 (F5)

0.58u

Bet to +105

PHI +120 (F5)

0.48u

PHI +135

0.54u

PHI +130

1.3u

@charliedisturco

HOU u4-118

0.5u

PHI +133

0.67u

Under 7.5-115

0.5u

F.Valdez o6.5 Ks-105

PHI +0.5 (F5)-125

1.2u

HOU -144

Available at FanDuel. My model has the Astros at 64.1% to win, up from 59.0% implied. I assume it's largely due to the starting-pitching matchup. Framber Valdez has upped his velocity this year, adding strikeouts to an already-stellar profile. His SIERA across five starts is 2.98. On the other side, Aaron Nola's velocity continues to be low, and it has led to pretty poor advanced numbers. I'm expecting Nola to revert back to his old self, but even with that, my numbers still show value on the Astros.

PHI +130 (F5)

1.3u

PHI +140

0.7u

Bet to +135

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The Astros are 104-51 (.671) as favorites since the 2022 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .604.

The Phillies are just 0-5 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.

The Phillies are 3-11 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Astros are 3-7 (.300) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.

Alec Bohm is batting .385 on breaking pitches from LHP since last season -- second best in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Framber Valdez has thrown his curveball 28% of the time since last season -- tied for 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 74 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Nick Castellanos has a swing rate of 47% on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- tied for third highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Framber Valdez has allowed a SLG of just .435 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- 12th best among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 26th	@TB	W 1-0	+1.5 W	U 8	HOU +100
Apr 25th	@TB	W 5-0	+1.5 W	U 7.5	HOU +152
Apr 24th	@TB	L 3-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	TB +165
Apr 23rd	@ATL	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 8	HOU +115
Apr 22nd	@ATL	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	HOU +100

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Nola, P		107	8	6	1
LJ.Alvarado, P		14	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Stott, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4N.Castellanos, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Realmuto, C	2-4	0	0	0
6A.Bohm, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7J. Harrison, LF	0-4	0	0	0
8E.Sosa, 3B	2-3	2	0	0
9C.Pache, CF	1-2	0	0	1
9B.Marsh, PR	1-1	0	0	1
9B.Marsh, CF	1-1	0	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LF.Valdez, P	109	7	3	3
RB.Abreu, P	11	1	2	0
RR.Montero, P	10	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Dubon, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Pena, SS	1-4	1	1	1
3K.Tucker, RF	0-4	0	0	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Abreu, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
6C.Julks, LF	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Meyers, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8R. Bannon, DH	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	0-3	0	0	0