Reds vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - August 25, 2024
Reds at Pirates
5:35 pm • SportsNet PTStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
L.Ortiz | 3.32 | 7-6 | ||
N.Martinez | 3.10 | 10-7 |
Reds at Pirates Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Reds 0-0 | -1.5+145 | o8.5-120 | -110 | |
Pirates 0-0 | +1.5-175 | u8.5+102 | -108 |
Sunday 5:35 p.m.
August 25, 2024PNC ParkPittsburgh
Reds vs. Pirates Expert Picks
Picks Office
119d ago
Last 30d: 121-111-6 (+0.9u)
Under 8.5-105
0.95u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Projections lean to a lower-scoring game than expected due to the offensive struggles of both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh checks in 22nd in runs per game, averaging 4.15, and a lowly 27th in OPS. Cincinnati isn't much better, sitting in 17th for runs per game with 4.43; they are 25th in OPS at .692. These anaemic offensive showings suggest that each of these teams shall struggle to be able to find a way to get this game to eclipse an 8.5-run total. Add the effect of starting pitchers, who also can do their part in holding the scoreboard down. Nick Martinez, son of the Reds, has an xERA of 3.22, putting him in the 81st percentile of all starters. Thanks to a 31.4% Hard Hit% and a meager 86.6 mph average exit velocity, he is able to induce weak contact, crucial against a Pittsburgh lineup that has shown limited power at home since the start of 2021, averaging only 4.17 runs per game, 25th in the league.
Luis Ortiz has really flashed some brilliance, showcasing potential when down in the zone, led most by a velocity in his heater in the 73rd percentile and a ground ball rate in the 58th percentile, both which lend themselves to run prevention. Ortiz has struggled this August, but his work prior to that, namely against Cincinnati where he allowed only one run over six innings, suggest he can keep Cincinnati's uninspiring offense at bay. Pittsburgh is sixth-best in errors defensively, yet another factor helping Ortiz keep the score down.
That also brings in the ballpark factor, with PNC Park and expectations here being for a low-scoring game. Home plate umpire David Rackley here toward unders, with a 64.2% strike percentage.
The bullpens are equally decent, with Pittsburgh putting up a 3.91 ERA, a 12th-place standing in the bigs, and Cincinnati's bullpen not far behind, holding a 4.01 ERA. That power in the bullpens also should support making the under, as late-game run-scoring will be kept at a minimum. Combining the two teams, they've been bad at situational hitting, including swinging the stick with runners in scoring position, decreasing those odds.
Splits against bullpens lend further proof for the under as a solid play. The Reds are slashing just .227 against right-handed relievers, while the Pirates check in at .232. When you take into consideration that both clubs likely will face a right-hander that's been high-leverage effective, there really isn't that much to bank on as far as a late-inning offensive surge. Key in keeping the under: games oftentimes inflate their scoring totals from the bullpen. The worst recent form is mediocrity for key hitters on both teams. If looking at Cincinnati partners outside of De La Cruz's productivity, one seems to come up with inconsistency in the extended lineup, including doing worse against right-handed pitching. Jonathan India and Spencer Steer are major critical middle-in-the-order bats who have been inconsistent, contributing to lower scoring. On the Pittsburgh side, key players with major stakes in run production there, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, were at times slipping off their offensive output in clutch situations.
Firefighter Bets
119d ago
Last 30d: 11-15-0 (-5.3u)
N.Martinez o3.5 Ks-130
1u
Sandy Plashkes
119d ago
Last 30d: 117-116-5 (+9.1u)
CIN -114 (F5)
1.14u
Firefighter Bets
119d ago
Last 30d: 11-15-0 (-5.3u)
E.De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases+100
1u
Greg Matherne
119d ago
Last 30d: 24-15-2 (+5.1u)
Under 9-105
0.5u
Prop Bet Guy
119d ago
Last 30d: 69-52-0 (+10.4u)
N.Martinez o3.5 Ks-130
1.3u
Too low of a line for Martinez. He’s only over in 4/9 starts this season, but consider the fact that his opponents on the misses were WSH, PHI, SDP x2, and TOR. He gets the Pirates now who are not only above avg K% over the L30 days vs righties (26%), but they’re also not hitting at all with an 83 wRC+ and .658 OPS. Even a modest 20% K% at 22 batters (should eclipse one or both), yields 4+ Ks. I have him closer to 5.
Sean Zerillo
119d ago
Last 30d: 29-50-0 (-6.0u)
Under 9-115
0.5u
Bet to -123 or 8.5 (-103)
PRO Insights
Reds
CIN Insights
- Featured InsightOpponents are hitting just .225 (112-for-497) against Reds RPs with RISP this season -- fifth best in MLB. The Pirates are batting just .228 with RISP this season -- fifth worst in MLB.
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Pirates
PIT Insights
- Featured InsightPirates RPs have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last two weeks -- tied for fourth highest in MLB. Reds have struck out 29% over the last two weeks -- highest in MLB.
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Reds vs. Pirates Previews & Analysis
Reds vs. Pirates Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Today's Starting Pitchers
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Reds vs. Pirates Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Pirates are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Pirates' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Pirates vs. Reds Injury Updates
Pirates Injuries
- Ke'Bryan HayesIF
Hayes is out with back
Out
- Johan OviedoP
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
- Endy RodriguezC
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Reds Injuries
- Jeimer CandelarioIF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
- Stuart FairchildOF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
- Matt McLainIF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
- Brandon WilliamsonP
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
- Graham AshcraftP
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
- Andrew AbbottP
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandIF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out
Reds vs. Pirates Box Score
Reds Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RN.Martinez, P | 54 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
RC.Spiers, P | 50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
RE.Pagan, P | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
RA.Diaz, P | 6 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1J.India, 2B | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2E.De La Cruz, SS | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
3T.Stephenson, C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4T.Friedl, CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
5S.Steer, LF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
5S.Steer, RF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
6S.Espinal, RF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6S.Fairchild, LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7D.Smith, 1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8A.Rosario, DH | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9N.Marte, 3B | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Pirates Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL.Ortiz, P | 95 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
RK.Nicolas, P | 8 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 | |
LJ.Beeks, P | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
RD.Santana, P | 20 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | |
LA.Chapman, P | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1I.Kiner-Falefa, 3B | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2B.Reynolds, LF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
3O.Cruz, SS | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4J.Bart, DH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
4C.Joe, PH | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4C.Joe, DH | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5R.Tellez, 1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6B.De La Cruz, RF | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
7Y.Grandal, C | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
8A.Williams, 2B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9M.Taylor, CF | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Reds vs. Pirates Odds Comparison
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Reds at Pirates Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Reds 0-0 | o4.5+100 | u4.5-130 |
Pirates 0-0 | o3.5-145 | u3.5+114 |