Royals vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - August 27, 2024

This line can’t be real.. CLE bats have been terrible ranking 28th in BA in the L15 & L7 days. They will he seeing M. Lorenzen who has been pitching lights out this month (1.99 ERA). He’s only allowing a .206 BA at night & a .158 BA to lefties which CLE will have 8 of in their expected lineup. CLE does have the best bullpen in the league, but every reliever they have just pitched yesterday… KC bats are on another level compared to the CLE bats, ranking 1st in BA in the L15 days & 5th in the L7 days. They will see G. Williams who is struggling this month with a 7.36 ERA. Yes, this is vs some good bats, but the KC bats might be the best he’s seen.. Williams is allowing a .351 BA at home and a .278 BA at night. HOW IS KC THE DOG?!

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Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice There are those season-long surface stats, like his 7-6 record and 3.47 ERA in 124.1 innings, which say Lorenzen is very reliable. However, his more advanced numbers illustrate a different picture, one telling us that his current performance is due for a little regression. Take, for instance, Lorenzen's xFIP, which normalizes home run rate and is an extremely high 4.57. He has been very lucky so far this season. His HR/FB is a bit under the league average, but a bit lucky smashing constant in his fly balls has not gone over the wall. Pitching to the team that Cleveland is, a team that makes hard contact, Lorenzen could be much more susceptible to hard contact, which would further chip away at his ground ball rate just helped bring up his homer total in. Backing up this view is Lorenzen's SIERA of 4.45, a metric that tries to give an even more accurate read on a pitcher's performance by considering strikeouts, walks, and the types of batted balls. Predictive and meant to be more indicative of a pitcher's underlying skills, SIERA aligns with Lorenzen's xFIP, and both are pointing to a pitcher whose true talent level is closer to a mid-4.00 ERA. That would suggest that the current 3.47 ERA that Lorenzen has isn't sustainable in the long term, and he's due for some regression—especially up against a Cleveland lineup that's skilled at putting the ball in play and taking advantage of pitchers' mistakes. That home run rate has seen Lorenzen post a 1.25 WHIP and a 1.23 HR/9 rate, surrendering 17 in 124.1 innings. Those hitters can take advantage of that power, leading to some concern for Lorenzen in a game against the likes of José Ramírez and Josh Naylor. Cleveland isn't exactly one of baseball's heavyweights in terms of home runs, but the team's proclivity for making hard contact would be problematically exploited by Lorenzen, probably leading to trouble for him. Tack on that Lorenzen has a chase rate of just 23.8%, which is in the 7th percentile. In other words, he really struggles to induce swings on pitches outside the strike zone. That would imply Cleveland hitters can more often sit on pitches within the strike zone, elevating the chances for hard contact - and, by that very token, runs. His ERA over his past three starts has been only 2.12 yet his WHIP remains just 1.25, which indicates that he continues to allow a pretty consistent stream of base runners. This recent work by the "escape artist"—meaning Lorenzen has avoided much damage despite traffic on the bases—is probably not sustainable, especially against a very patient Cleveland lineup that is known for their ability to hit in key situations. Lorenzen's past performances against Cleveland have further highlighted this concern. The results have been mixed, but it was a noted outing in which he gave up seven earned runs in six. That history again suggests that, at least when hitters for Cleveland are locked in, they're able to take advantage of Lorenzen's mistakes, so over 9 runs is a strong play. It's been a bumpy ride for Williams, who possesses a season record of 2-6 and an ERA of 5.13 in 47.1 innings. His WHIP of 1.46 testifies to a big problem with allowing base runners. It's a situation amplified when facing a Kansas City batting order that's scored runs at, or above, the top third of the league in several offensive statistics this season. Williams' xBA is very high at .263 as is his xERA of 4.52. The .263 xBA points to frequent contact, and when combined with his average exit velocity of 90.7 mph, it's visible that batters hit the ball hard on a regular basis. Most importantly, hard-hit balls tend to mean extra-base hits or home runs and will be a key part of increased scoring, which is worrisome. Williams' BB% of 8.9% furthers his problems, as a high walk rate will result in more runners on base, giving the opposing team like Kansas City more opportunity to score when Williams is on the mound. Over his last three starts, Williams has posted a 5.65 ERA, showing little sign of improvement. He allowed 14 hits in those 14.2 innings, and it is clear evidence that he has been very hittable and very likely to give up runs. He doesn't exactly have a great track record against Kansas City, but previous evidence almost proves that the balanced offensive mentality of the Royals could use his deficiencies to their advantage as they pounce early in this game before that Cleveland bullpen takes over. The Royals rank 8th in overall offense, with 4.87 runs per game in their offensive line. The line-up has consistently been a potent force in mostly scoring runs throughout the whole season. The team batting average for the Royals is .258, good for 6th in the league, and an OPS of .738, which is 10th in the league, showing they've done well in these two key statistics—getting on base and slugging for power. These statistics help underline that they are equipped to score against a pitcher who is struggling, such as Gavin Williams. Important players include Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, and Salvador Perez, who greatly contribute to the thrust of Kansas City's offense. Bobby Witt is having a splendid season, leading the pack with 27 home runs and maintaining a batting average of .347, with an OPS of 1.014. It's the confluence of average and power in the same body, ensuring that he's a consistent threat, especially to pitchers like Williams, who have trouble keeping the ball in the park. On top of these, Melendez and Perez also bring quite a power-force in the lineup: Melendez is showing a high hard-hit rate, and Perez is combining power with a high contact rate. Power hitters like these are likely critical when faced with a pitcher such as Williams, who allows an exceedingly high average exit velocity, to drive balls deep into the outfield or over the fence. The Royals also have a robust running game, ranking 9th in stolen bases with a total of 108. Hence, that capability of trying to develop scoring opportunities is like a two-edged sword to be threatening offensively in contact with no less than pitchers with horrible controls. The factor of Williams' high walk rate and allowing base runners is likely to be even more exacerbated by the speed the Royals have on the basepaths, likely leading to more runs. Cleveland Guardians Offense: Cleveland's offense, if not on the scale of Kansas City's, can still get runs at a reasonable pace. They are 13th in runs per game while averaging 4.55, so they are close to the Royals. The team's batting average is .237, slotted at 22nd, and its OPS is .703, ranking 18th in the league. These numbers seem to tell us that they rely more on situational hitting or maximizing other teams' blunders than on a pure slugging approach. However, playing in their home ballpark has a lot to do with who they are in this matchup, considering they score on average 4.97 runs in Progressive Field, nearly half a run more than the overall-season average. Key guys for Cleveland are José Ramírez and Josh Naylor, the linchpin of the offense. Ramírez brings power to the plate, with a lower rate of strikeouts proving to be an everyday threat. Naylor supplies power from the left side. These hitters have the special ability to capitalize on the hard-throwing Lorenzen, who would otherwise be brutal in allowing contact and long balls. He also adds Jhonkensy Noel to the lineup, with high power potential but an alarming 29.8% walk rate, which could really help form a key part down the middle order. His ability to get on base and hit for power could be key, especially against a pitcher like Lorenzen who has allowed a fair number of walks. Kansas City Royals Bullpen: The Royals' bullpen has not been good this season, posting a 4.32 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP, which are indicators that they have allowed many runs and base runners. This is of special worry in a tightly contested game where late runs could propel the game total over the number. Of even greater concern has been their performance over the last three games, where they have posted an ERA of 7.66 and WHIP of 1.84. That said, it suggests that no matter how well Lorenzen pitches, the bullpen could still end up blowing the lead, letting Cleveland score late, and ultimately putting the game over this total. On the other hand, the Cleveland bullpen has been pretty good this season, managing a 2.69 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, both top among the league. But if Williams falters within the first few innings, the bullpen will have to effectively pitch more than a relief staff typically should. Additionally, the strain may leave cracks in the bullpen which Kansas City's offense may capitalise on and more often than not can exploit anytime toward the latter part of the game when fatigue begins to take toll.

Bet to -118

Bet to -155