Royals vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - August 28, 2024

Royals at Guardians

5:10 pm • BSGL

Kansas City Royals

8-14

5 - 7

Cleveland Guardians

11-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Bibee			3.47	12-8
M.Wacha			3.35	13-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Royals 8-14	+1.5-165	o8-105	+135
Guardians 11-9	-1.5+139	u8-115	-160

Wednesday 5:10 p.m.

August 28, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

KC +130

V.Pasquantino o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-120

0.83u

B.Witt o1.5 Total Bases-125

Under 4.5 (F5)-130

1.3u

KC bats have been hot, but so has T. Bibee who has pitched well vs this lineup allowing only a .192 BA in his career. Before his previous start vs TEX (5.2IP 8H 4ER) he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER since July 10. His splits are pretty consistent, minus the L / R splits which KC has an even lineup so those should cancel. CLE bats are still terrible & Wacha has been one of the best pitchers these L3 months. June = 1.42 ERA, July = 2.73 ERA, Aug. = 2.16 ERA with consistent splits across the board. I’m keeping this to the F5 because both bullpens are taxed & there can be some late scoring.

Under 8-110

. wind in and hot unders Overall: 363-257-40,59% (ROI:13%) Season:15-22-1,41% (ROI:-21%) . wind blowing in under streak Overall: 547-378-39,59% (ROI:14%) Season:23-18-2,56% (ROI:7%)

CLE -151

0.5u

Over 8-105

CLE -130

0.5u

Bet to -135

CLE -122 (F5)

0.61u

Bet to -135

CLE -134

0.75u

Featured Insight
The Royals have answered-back in 39% of innings after an opponent scores this month -- fourth highest in MLB. Guardians have allowed a run 43% of the time after an opposing score this month -- third highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Guardians left-handed hitters have struck out just 16% against RHP since last season -- lowest in MLB. Royals have a strikeout rate of just 20% vs left-handed batters since last season -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB.

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The Guardians are just 3-44 (.064) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.

MJ Melendez has struck out in 27% of PA's since last season -- 14th highest in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Josh Hader has a strikeout rate of 38% since last season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

MJ Melendez has an OPS of just .710 since the 2022 season -- 11th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Emmanuel Clase has allowed an OPS of just .486 (797 PAs) since the 2022 season -- second best among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .397 against Tanner Bibee on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for 15th worst among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP-- 14th Percentile. Opponents batted just .268 (15-for-56) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season -- eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 94th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has recorded 31 of his 60 strikeouts (52%) vs left-handed batters with his changeup this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (132/374) against Tanner Bibee this season -- 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% -- ninth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .183 (35-for-191) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 -- 92nd Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 6-8 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Guardians' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	9-11	3-3	6-8	5-3	4-7
Royals	9-13	6-4	3-9	6-4	3-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	9-9-2	2-4	7-5-2	5-3	4-5-2
Royals	8-14	4-6	4-8	4-6	4-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	11-9	5-1	6-8	7-1	4-7
Royals	8-14	6-4	2-10	6-4	2-10

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 27th	KC	L 1-6	-1.5 L	U 9	KC -165
Aug 26th	KC	L 4-9	-1.5 L	O 9	KC -142
Aug 26th	KC	L 3-4	+1.5 W	U 8	KC +110
Aug 25th	TEX	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -125
Aug 24th	TEX	W 13-5	-1.5 W	O 8.5	CLE -135

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
Slade Cecconi
P
Cecconi is out with oblique
Out
John Means
P
Means is out with elbow
Out
David Fry
C
Fry is out with elbow
Out

Kyle Wright
P
Wright is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Wacha, P	100	6	7	5
RL.Erceg, P	20	1	1	1
RC.Stratton, P	24	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Massey, 2B	1-3	1	1	1
1M.Garcia, PH	1-2	0	0	1
1M.Garcia, 2B	1-2	0	0	1
2B.Witt, SS	2-5	1	1	1
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	4-5	1	1	1
4S.Perez, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5M.Melendez, LF	0-3	1	0	0
6P.DeJong, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
7A.Frazier, RF	1-4	0	0	1
8F.Fermin, C	1-4	0	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Bibee, P	99	5	6	5
LT.Herrin, P	7	0.2	1	0
RE.Morgan, P	24	1.1	2	0
RH.Gaddis, P	10	1	0	0
RE.Clase, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-4	1	0	1
2A.Gimenez, 2B	1-3	2	0	1
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-5	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	3-5	1	0	2
5D.Fry, DH	1-5	0	0	0
6W.Brennan, CF	1-4	0	0	1
6B.Rocchio, SS	0-0	0	0	0
7J.Noel, RF	2-3	1	0	1
8D.Schneemann, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8D.Schneemann, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9B.Naylor, C	1-2	1	1	1
9L.Thomas, PR	0-0	1	0	0
9A.Hedges, C	0-0	0	0	0