Royals vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - April 12, 2024

Royals at Mets

11:10 pm • BSKC

Kansas City Royals

3-3

1 - 6

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Severino			3.91	11-7
M.Wacha			3.35	13-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Royals 3-3	+1.5	+1.5-180	o8.5-115	+120
Mets 7-6	u8	-1.5+150	u8.5-105	-142

Friday 11:10 p.m.

April 12, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

KC +120

B.Witt o1.5 Total Bases-115

1.15u

KC +116 (F5)

0.5u

M.Wacha u5.5 Ks-110

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-110

F.Lindor u0.5 Hits+140

Not a good player

Over 8-110

0.55u

Bet to 8.5 (-101)

NYM -117

NYM -125 (F5)

NYM -120

0.83u

FanDuel 10:33 Thursday.

NYM -115

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -141

NYM -125 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -145

L.Severino u17.5 Outs-125

Sevy 2/2 to the under on this line so far. Royals slightly above avg with pitches per PA (3.93), and 9th in wRC+ vs righties (113).

Featured Insight
Royals won 65% of their games that were decided by one run or less last season -- second best in MLB. Mets won just 46% of their games that were decided by one run or less last season -- eighth worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Mets have allowed a run just 28% of the time after an opposing score since the 2022 season -- fifth lowest in MLB. The Royals have answered-back in just 28% of innings after an opponent scores since the 2022 season -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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The Royals are just 17-13 (.567) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Royals are just 23-30 (.434) when they've scored in the first inning since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .613.

The Mets are just 7-41 (.146) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.

The Mets are just 3-76 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.

Bobby Witt Jr. had an OPS of .712 with two strikes last season -- seventh best in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Luis Severino allowed an OPS of .702 (230 PAs) with two strikes last season -- third worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- second Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 75% (9/12) against Luis Severino -- 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 45% -- 99th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (10 Total Bases / 40 ABs) this season -- 7th best among in AL; League Avg: .360 -- 88th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (13/33) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season -- 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% -- 95th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Royals	87-75	43-38	44-37	40-38	46-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Royals	69-88-5	38-42-1	31-46-4	32-46	36-42-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Royals	86-76	45-36	41-40	49-29	36-47

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 11th	@ATL	W 16-4	+1.5 W	O 10	NYM +140
Apr 9th	@ATL	L 5-6	+1.5 W	O 9.5	ATL +156
Apr 8th	@ATL	W 8-7	+1.5 W	O 10	NYM +191
Apr 7th	@CIN	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYM -120
Apr 6th	@CIN	L 6-9	+1.5 L	O 9.5	CIN +105

Kyle Wright
P
Wright is out for season with shoulder
Out for Season

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Wacha, P	84	6	4	5
RJ. Lyles, P	8	1	0	0
LW.Smith, P	21	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
2B.Witt, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4S.Perez, C	1-4	1	1	1
5M.Melendez, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6N.Velazquez, DH	1-3	0	0	0
7A.Frazier, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
8H.Renfroe, RF	0-3	0	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Severino, P	90	5	4	1
LJ.Diekman, P	13	0.2	1	0
RR.Garrett, P	15	1.1	2	0
RA.Ottavino, P	10	1	1	0
RJ.Lopez, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	1	0	1
2S.Marte, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	1-3	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-4	1	1	1
5B.Baty, 3B	2-4	1	0	2
6F.Alvarez, C	1-4	1	0	0
7J.McNeil, 2B	3-4	0	0	1
8D.Stewart, DH	1-3	0	0	1
8T.Taylor, PH	1-1	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, DH	1-1	0	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	2-4	1	0	0