Twins vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2023

Twins at Guardians

11:10 pm • Apple TV+

Minnesota Twins

9-10

2 - 0

Cleveland Guardians

9-12

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P. Battenfield			5.19	0-5
B.Ober			3.43	8-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 9-10	-1.5+132	o8.5-122	-122
Guardians 9-12	+1.5-162	u8.5+105	+100

Friday 11:10 p.m.

May 05, 2023

Progressive FieldCleveland

MIN +105 (Live)

1.05u

P.Battenfield u4.5 Ks-118

1.18u

14 K in 17.1 MLB innings this season - 109 K in 153.2 IP in AAA last season. Not a K pitcher - and coming off a 45 pitch relief outing. He was built up to 90+ before that, but odds are he isn’t pushed too hard today. MIN does have some K risk in the lineup, but they did just option Larnach. Gallo now the only real fear (although he has been better this season). But MIN’s offense starting to pick up the heat too - over the L2 weeks they are 8th in wRC+ vs RHP, 8th in OPS and 7th in ISO. Battenfield has been hit incredibly hard in his limited time in the majors - I see more of that today.

Over 8.5-115

MIN -126

0.95u

Available at FanDuel. This number has moved overnight, but I'm still showing value at -126. My model has the Twins at 59.5% to win, up from 55.8% implied at -126. Bailey Ober isn't a big name, but he has proven to be capable with a 3.95 SIERA across 33 career starts. Peyton Battenfield on the other side is a low-strikeout, fly-ball pitcher, which can be a rough combination. I agree with the model in that the Twins are values here.

Under 8.5-105

0.5u

Bet to -116

CLE +115

0.5u

Bet to +108

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Friday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
May 5, 2023 UTC

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The Twins are 84-3 (.966) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season -- 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .954.

Max Fried allowed an OBP of just .168 (369 PA's) with two-strikes in 2022 -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .238 -- 99th Percentile.

19 of Max Fried's breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 -- 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan -- 93rd Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 3rd	@NYY	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYY -120
May 2nd	@NYY	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7	NYY +132
May 1st	@NYY	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	CLE +108
Apr 30th	@BOS	L 1-7	+1.5 L	U 9	BOS +105
Apr 29th	@BOS	L 7-8	+1.5 W	O 9	BOS +100

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
P
Means is out with elbow
Out
David Fry
C
Fry is out with elbow
Out
Daniel Espino
P
Espino is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RB.Ober, P	91	7	6
RJ.Lopez, P	10	1	1
RJ.Duran, P	18	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Kepler, RF	1-4	1	1	2
2C.Correa, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Polanco, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
4B.Buxton, DH	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Gallo, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Gallo, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6D.Solano, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
6M.Taylor, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Taylor, CF	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Gordon, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7N.Gordon, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Miranda, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8W.Castro, PR	0-0	0	0	0
8W.Castro, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
9C.Vazquez, C	1-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP. Battenfield, P	91	7	7	2
RE.De Los Santos, P	15	1	0	0
RX.Curry, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	0-3	0	0	0
2A.Rosario, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Bell, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6O. González, RF	1-3	0	0	0
7A.Gimenez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8M. Zunino, C	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Straw, CF	0-2	0	0	0