Warriors vs. Rockets Odds & Betting Predictions - April 21, 2025

5.02% ev

To feel something again

6.7% ev

Steph baby tuck me

Gonna be that guy

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Fading Amen on Easter Sunday isn’t for the faint of heart — he’s cleared this in 6 of his last 7, averaging 5.9 assists per game. But my Pass Mix model has him closer to just 3.4 expected assists per game during that run, meaning he’s racked up a wild 17 assists over expectation. That kind of run is screaming for regression. His top assist buddy all season, Dillon Brooks, is 9-for-12 (75%) from three on Amen’s passes during this stretch — which is unsustainable. A few other teammates are also due for a cooldown. Prime sell-high spot.

⭐ D. Brooks ⬇️ 3.5 Rebounds ⭐ -140 @ DraftKings - 1U 💵 Collab w/ @SC_FFB 🤝 Check out his 📝 below. Some nice +EV from sharper books too!

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Tailing @TurveyBets. Like his analysis/reasoning on this one.

Curry just 3 pts on 1-10 shooting in last matchup—Amen Thompson + Brooks hounded him all game. Rockets elite at home: 107.5 PPG allowed, 44.9% opp FG%. Playoff pace always slower—possessions grind down, buckets come harder. This one sets up to stay tight. Warriors solid defensively—110.5 PPG allowed, thrive in physical games. Draymond still the anchor, loves this playoff tempo. Kerr leans on playoff vets to set tone. Houston leans heavy on D, and Golden State is built to match it. Both sides want a grind. Offense efficiency low on both sides—GSW 45.1%, Houston 45.5%. Neither team ranks top 15 in shooting. Rockets inexperienced on this stage—expect nerves, deliberate tempo. Game 1 opens the series with intensity, not fireworks.

7.68% ev

4.64% ev

@cawright95 was on this first on ScoresAndOdds but I’m in alignment with him. I think this is a spot where median projections will have Moody playing a 30+ min role based on his 33 minutes in the Memphis Play-In game and 30 minutes in the final regular season game against LAC that went into OT, but I think there’s a lot of fragility here. Moody only played 13 minutes when they played HOU on 4/6 and lost time to GPII (20 mins), Hield (25 mins), Looney (22 mins) and Kuminga (19). It’s possible Kuminga remains out of the rotation, but what if he isn’t? Among the GSW starters, I think Moody’s role is the most uncertain and I’m willing to play his u14.5 PRA in Game 1 to embrace that uncertainty.

5.84% ev

3.62% ev

FVV really wearing down at age 31 as a small guard. this was the least efficient season of his career and his lowest PPG at 14.1. Under this number 55%, and down to 11.8 since the start of February with Greene and Amen scoring more, under in 69% that time span. Awful vs GSW this year, 8.8ppg despite huge minutes, shot 22%, under 4 for 4.

3.59% ev