Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 17, 2024

Nuggets at Timberwolves

12:30 am • ESPN

Denver Nuggets

3-4

70 - 115

Minnesota Timberwolves

4-3

115

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nuggets 3-4	+2	+2-108	o205.5-110	+110
Timberwolves 4-3	u205	-2-112	u205.5-110	-130

Friday 12:30 a.m.

May 17, 2024

Target CenterMinneapolis

A.Edwards o29.5 Pts+100

K.Towns o0.5 3pt M (Live)-135

Live via Playback

J.Murray o10.5 Pts (Live)-130

Live on Playback

A.Edwards o2.5 3pt M-115

0.5u

IT’S 3PM SOMEWHERE!!!

N.Alexander-Walker u2.5 Ast-120

1.5u

NAW switches into a different role from G to F with Conley healthy (even if not 100%, Morris will be the backup PG). Huge game on the line for MIN to stay alive, and in order for Ant Edwards to get better looks, he must have Conley and/or Monte Morris on the court to playmake. In the last game, NAW was in the Conley facilitator role, but today I expect him to be used strictly for his spot-up shooting on offense. After what happened in Game 5, we can expect a lot more doubles, traps being thrown at Edwards forcing him to pass out this game where NAW will have open shots not needing to pass out himself. And just in general, NAW is passing a lot less compared to his outlier Game 5 . Here are the splits: 70.0 Passes Made :arrow_right: 27.7 Passes Made and 6.0 potentials :arrow_right: 2.7 potentials (in the games where Conley & Gobert where healthy). He had 0, 1, 2, & 3 assists in Games 1-4 and goes under this line in 32/46 games with both Conley and Edwards playing 20-30 minutes. Tonight, there won’t be too much passes made and facilitating but I realistically see 2-4 chances for him. Players will need to shoot >75% to go over. More than happy to take the risk that doesn’t happen. #PlayerProps

DEN +120

MIN -120

0.33u

Over 205.5-108

MIN -1 (1Q)-111

N.Jokic o38.5 Pts+Ast+100

0.5u

@JoeDellera

DEN +2.5-110

0.5u

@GDAWG5000

C.Braun o9.5 Pts+Rebs-136

0.5u

@JoeDellera

A.Edwards o2.5 3pt M-125

0.4u

@GDAWG5000

A.Edwards o29.5 Pts-122

0.5u

@ChicagoFlow

R.Gobert o12.5 Rebs+108

0.54u

@ChicagoFlow

C.Braun o9.5 Pts+Rebs+100

0.5u

#Tailing @JoeDellera

MIN -2-110

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M+116

0.5u

N.Jokic o8.5 Ast-127

1.27u

A.Edwards o29.5 Pts-102

1.02u

J.Murray o24.5 Pts+Ast-120

M.Conley o8.5 Rebs+Ast-125

0.8u

MIN -2-110

Under 105 (1H)-120

M.Porter o13.5 Pts-110

DEN +110

Via Bryan Fonseca

A.Edwards u5.5 Ast+110

1.1u

@TurveyBets

C.Braun o9.5 Pts+Rebs+100

@wheatonbrando

DEN o101.5 Team Total-120

@wheatonbrando

DEN +2.5-110

J.Murray o1.5 3pt M-122

0.82u

MIN -2-112

0.89u

MIN -125

MIN -2.5-105

A.Gordon u14.5 Pts-124

$50.00

DEN o102.5 Team Total+110

C.Braun o9.5 Pts+Rebs+100

1.5u

Denver has made a significant adjustment to their rotations and Christian Braun has seen a significant uptick in his minutes. His quickness and physicality has been useful on the defensive side of the ball and he can at least make Anthony Edwards’ life a little bit more difficult on that side of the ball. Offensively, he is a spark plug that can cut, grab offensive boards, and even spot up from 3. This skill set has allowed him to remain on the floor because he is not an offensive liability. He has seen his minutes rise throughout the series and in Games 4 and 5 he played 25 and 28 minutes. When Braun has played 20+ minutes this season, he has exceeded this line in 74% of games while averaging 14.1 PR. If he sees 25+ it jumps to 89% with an average of 16.4 PR. After strong performances in Games 4 and 5, I expect Braun to see extended run once again in Game 6 as he has closed games ahead of MPN.. I like him to exceed 9.5 PR. FD is next best at (-115) then MGM (-125)

MIN -2-110

$50.00

J.Murray o1.5 3pt M-135

0.74u

Projection leans to the over and +ev bet with devig odds of -157

M.Conley o1.5 3pt M-155

0.65u

Projection leans to the over and +ev bet with devig odds of -187

A.Edwards u6.5 Ast-125

0.8u

Projection leans towards the under and +ev bet with devig odds of -154

Under 204-108

2.78u

Over 203.5-108

K.Towns o6.5 Rebs-125

M.Porter o5.5 Rebs-120

J.Murray o24.5 Pts+Ast-120

1.2u

A.Gordon u14.5 Pts-115

1.06u

A.Edwards u6.5 Ast-130

N.Jokic o11.5 Rebs-117

1.17u

DEN o106.5+195

alt line

DEN o106.5+195

alt totals

DEN o106.5+195

$1.00

DEN o106.5+195

$1.00

Featured Insight
The Nuggets have allowed a TS% of 48% in close and late situations this season -- 5th-best in the NBA; the Timberwolves has a TS% of 47% in close and late situations this season -- 3rd-worst in the NBA.

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No props found

NBA Public Betting

Timberwolves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Timberwolves are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Timberwolves are 22-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Timberwolves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 18 of Timberwolves' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Timberwolves	40-40-2	18-22-1	22-18-1	29-31-2	11-9
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Timberwolves	41-40-1	18-22-1	23-18	29-32-1	12-8
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Timberwolves	9-7	N/A	N/A	47-15	9-11
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 15th	@DEN	L 97-112	+4.5 L	O 205	DEN +155
May 13th	DEN	L 107-115	-4 L	O 205	DEN -170
May 11th	DEN	L 90-117	-3.5 L	O 205.5	DEN -158
May 7th	@DEN	W 106-80	+7 W	U 209.5	MIN +235
May 4th	@DEN	W 106-99	+4.5 W	U 209.5	MIN +153