Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 11, 2024

Jdubbbbb

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#Tailing @PropBomb

17 reb chance G1, 15 reb chance G2. SGA defends the weak-side for PJ Washington & DJJ 3s. Actively grabs rebounds to jumpstart transition. J-Dub is defending Kyrie, Chet is boxing out Gafford to prevent tip-ins, Dort is defending Luka and if Giddey’s minutes are getting taken away, this also helps because he also sags off. #PlayerProps

OKC aren’t dogs very often just saying

Projection leans towards the under and a +ev bet with devig odds of -130 giving value to this number

The Thunder and the Mavericks head into Game 3 tied at one game apiece. One player that has risen in this series in SGA and I don’t think the book’s have captured just how much his role has expanded as Giddy’s has simultaneously shrunk. In the two games this series, Shai is averaging 8.5 assists and 10.5 rebounds on 13.5 potentials and 16 rebound chances. Good for 18 and 20 RA performances. With Giddy’s minutes decreasing as well, it improves the spacing for Shai with his dribble penetration to assist and Giddy does not take up the easy boards to kick start transition offense. I like the idea of laddering this by tying in our outcomes. 8 assists/8 Rebounds in a SGP is (+597 ESPN) which has cashed in both Games 1 and 2. 10 assists/10 rebounds built out is (+4500 MGM) which is certainly worth a stab considering his recent performance. SGA hasn’t had a triple double in years, but in a must-win game 3 to shift home court back to the Thunder I expect Shai to perform. I like SGA to exceed 12.5 RA tonight, a number he’s blown by in both Games 1 and 2.