UConn vs. Gonzaga Odds & Betting Predictions - March 26, 2023

UConn at Gonzaga

12:59 am • TBS

Connecticut Huskies

23-10

82 - 54

Gonzaga Bulldogs

25-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
UConn 23-10	-2.5-115	o153.5-110	-150
Gonzaga 25-8	+2.5-105	u153.5-110	+130

Sunday 12:59 a.m.

March 26, 2023

T-Mobile ArenaLas Vegas

CONN -2-110

GONZ +18.5 (Live)+120

$50.00

Under 153.5 (Live)-108

FD: have to figure UConn will start slowing the pace down here, Timme will foul out soon, Zags will be leaning on 3PA, and eventually waive the white flag. Good time to buy in on the under

CONN o79.5-107

GONZ +430 (Live)

$25.00

GONZ +3.5-120

0.4u

South Point

GONZ +3-110

1.1u

GONZ +1.5 (1H)-110

1.1u

Over 153.5-110

1.1u

CONN -150

0.67u

CONN -145

1.38u

GONZ +2.5-110

$220.00

CONN -135 (1H)

0.74u

A.Watson u7.5 Rebs-120

FanDuel: Watson has cleared this in 4 straight but this is a good spot to sell high. UConn plays at a slow pace, ranks 29th in eFG%, is an excellent rebounding team, and turns the ball over at above average rate. All of these factors should lead to fewer rebound chances than usual, which is why we are projecting Watson closer to 6.5 with a 62% chance of staying under 7.5

CONN o77.5-114

0.22u

D.Timme u32.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

Yes, I’m fading Timme. He’s coming off two monster performances vs UCLA (without Bona) and an underwhelming TCU front line. He gets UConn now, who have shut off the paint and limited production against virtually every big man they’ve faced this season (Kalkbrenner, Nunge, Soriano all failed to eclipse their PRA averages against UConn). Sanogo/Clingan have held opps to about 3.5% FG% below average in the paint. And UConn’s perimeter defense has been excellent at pressuring the ball to not allow easy entry passes. Gonzaga will force feed Timme his touches (there is no denying that), but possessions likely will be much longer than what the Zags are used to. Tacking on rebounds and assists since it’s also a brutal matchup for both, but also good with u21.5 points.

CONN -3-105

CONN -2.5-110

0.45u

UConn has the bigs to limit Timme and if that happens, Gonzaga is in trouble. Both offense elite but UConn plays D too. Huskies should score and I think the D can slow Zags too. Honestly think there might be a path where UConn rolls and wins big tonight. Looked at title odds but not enough margin, I’ll just keep playing game by game.

Over 153.5-110

0.5u

CONN o77.5-114

0.88u

CONN -1.5 (1H)-105

0.95u

CONN -2.5-110

0.91u

CONN -2-110

0.91u

A.Karaban o7.5 Pts-139

Projection - 9.6: For more, check out BettingPros.

CONN -2.5-110

2.73u

GONZ +2.5-110

1.1u

M.Smith u8.5 Pts-111

Given on BBOC

CONN -140

CONN -2.5-107

$102.80

CONN -132

0.5u

GONZ +120

0.5u

Over 153-113

2.26u

CONN -130

CONN -1-110

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Our tournament ratings give Connecticut 58.7% odds to win this game and advance to the Final Four.

As of the start of the Sweet 16, the most likely team to make the Final Four from this region was No. 4 Connecticut, with 33.7% odds.

Gonzaga was the most popular No. 3 seed pick by the public in this round, and was selected to reach the Final Four in 19% of NCAA Tournament brackets nationwide.

Entering the First Round, Gonzaga was the most likely No. 3 seed to make the Final Four, with 17.9% odds (breakeven moneyline +460).

Since 2002, No. 3 seeds like Gonzaga are 1-2 against No. 4 seeds like Connecticut in the Elite Eight (33.3% win rate, breakeven moneyline +200).

No. 4 Connecticut has played in 13 of the past 20 NCAA tournaments, going 32-10 straight up and 25-16-1 against the spread in 42 total games.

No. 4 seeds have the better record against the spread in those March Madness games, going 2-1 ATS (66.7% cover rate, average spread -1.8).

No. 3 Gonzaga has played in all of the past 20 NCAA tournaments, going 34-20 straight up and 22-31-1 against the spread in 54 total games.

Elite Eight matchups pitting a No. 3 seed against a No. 4 seed have gone over the full game total 66.7% of the time (2-1, average over/under line 135.8).

No props found

NCAAB Public Betting

Gonzaga are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Gonzaga are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Gonzaga are 8-6 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Gonzaga' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 12 of Gonzaga' 19 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Gonzaga	14-19	6-13	8-6	14-19	N/A
UConn	15-18	9-10	6-8	11-15	4-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Gonzaga	19-14	12-7	7-7	19-14	N/A
UConn	15-18	7-12	8-6	12-14	3-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Gonzaga	25-8	N/A	N/A	25-8	N/A
UConn	23-10	N/A	N/A	19-7	4-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 24th	@UCLA	W 79-76	+1 W	O 145.5	GONZ -110
Mar 20th	TCU	W 84-81	-4.5 L	O 152.5	GONZ -195
Mar 17th	GC	W 82-70	-15.5 L	U 153.5	GONZ -1675
Mar 8th	@SMC	W 77-51	-2.5 W	U 140	GONZ -150
Mar 7th	SF	W 84-73	-14.5 L	U 161.5	GONZ -1400

Liam McNeeley
F
McNeeley is probable with ankle
Probable

Ahmad Nowell
G
Nowell is out with ankle
Out

Dusty Stromer
G
Stromer is probable with illness
Probable

Emmanuel Innocenti
F
Innocenti is questionable with illness
Questionable
Ismaila Diagne
C
Diagne is out with concussion
Out

See more NCAAB Injuries

UConn

Gonzaga

30-72 (42%)

Field Goals

20-60 (33%)

11-14 (79%)

Free Throws

12-22 (55%)

11-31 (35%)

2-20 (10%)

Rebounds

Assists

Turnovers

Steals

Blocks

Fouls

Could not load odds

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MatchupOverUnder
UConn 23-10	N/A	N/A
Gonzaga 25-8	N/A	N/A

UConn vs. Gonzaga Odds & Betting Predictions - March 26, 2023

UConn at Gonzaga

Connecticut Huskies

Gonzaga Bulldogs

UConn at Gonzaga Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

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UConn vs. Gonzaga Public Betting Percentages

UConn

Public

Gonzaga

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

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UConn Injuries

Gonzaga Injuries

UConn vs. Gonzaga Odds Comparison

UConn at Gonzaga Team Totals