UConn vs. Gonzaga Odds & Betting Predictions - March 26, 2023

FD: have to figure UConn will start slowing the pace down here, Timme will foul out soon, Zags will be leaning on 3PA, and eventually waive the white flag. Good time to buy in on the under

South Point

FanDuel: Watson has cleared this in 4 straight but this is a good spot to sell high. UConn plays at a slow pace, ranks 29th in eFG%, is an excellent rebounding team, and turns the ball over at above average rate. All of these factors should lead to fewer rebound chances than usual, which is why we are projecting Watson closer to 6.5 with a 62% chance of staying under 7.5

Yes, I’m fading Timme. He’s coming off two monster performances vs UCLA (without Bona) and an underwhelming TCU front line. He gets UConn now, who have shut off the paint and limited production against virtually every big man they’ve faced this season (Kalkbrenner, Nunge, Soriano all failed to eclipse their PRA averages against UConn). Sanogo/Clingan have held opps to about 3.5% FG% below average in the paint. And UConn’s perimeter defense has been excellent at pressuring the ball to not allow easy entry passes. Gonzaga will force feed Timme his touches (there is no denying that), but possessions likely will be much longer than what the Zags are used to. Tacking on rebounds and assists since it’s also a brutal matchup for both, but also good with u21.5 points.

UConn has the bigs to limit Timme and if that happens, Gonzaga is in trouble. Both offense elite but UConn plays D too. Huskies should score and I think the D can slow Zags too. Honestly think there might be a path where UConn rolls and wins big tonight. Looked at title odds but not enough margin, I’ll just keep playing game by game.

Projection - 9.6: For more, check out BettingPros.

Given on BBOC