Welcome to Week 10 of the college football season. We have turned the calendar to November, the month where legacies are cemented, seasons are defined and rivalries are won and lost.
Much of that will come in the next few weeks, as we have a thin slate of action Saturday thanks to a few scheduling quirks. Two bye weeks this season means many teams are getting a second week off. We are also missing a primetime showcase, as FOX cleared its evening for a World Series Game 7 that never arrived.
C-USA and the MAC are extremely limited this weekend as there are only three combined games from these leagues. C-USA has moved most of its inventory to weeknights and the MAC rests this Saturday to prepare for its midweek MACtion.
But a lack of quantity doesn’t mean a lack of quality. We have some thrillers at the top of the Big Ten, the usual collection of excellence in the SEC and some real intrigue in the ACC. Additionally, the Big 12 round Robin continues.
Let’s take a look at the Week 10 slate. Here are some notes and nuggets to know as you build out your betting weekend betting card.
Friday, November 1st
Friday night is another showcase game for Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, who is going to need a late surge to show he's not just another September Heisman winner. As a Group of Five running back, he faces an uphill climb against biases for quarterbacks of top-10 teams.
Jeanty is +450 to take home the sport’s top prize at BetMGM. His rushing yards per game have dipped from an average of 211 in September to “only” 177 in October. With Dillon Gabriel (+240), Travis Hunter (+250) and Cam Ward (+300) also making their moves, Jeanty will need a few more preposterous stat lines — ideally in these showcase games — to bring the award home.
Saturday, November 2nd
You know the drill: The under is 44-9-1 in Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy games since 2006. But many of those lines were set in the 50s, until books started adjusting a few years ago. The posted numbers have cratered in recent seasons, but the under keeps hitting. These teams have so much familiarity with one another’s offense — add in the slow pace and low possession count — that it becomes one of the easiest bets to make.
But Army’s Bryson Daily might change that. When a service academy has an excellent quarterback, the offense turns into a yardage-chewing machine. Navy, with the dynamic Blake Horvath under center, covered -10 and went over 37.5 in a victory over this hapless Air Force squad a month ago. Daily will look to match Horvath’s results and set up an iconic Army-Navy game in the season finale.
Mike Ianniello might be having a rough season picking games on our Group of Five Deep Dive podcast, but I trust him to get right this week. His best bet is Memphis -7 against UTSA as he's honed in on a Tigers' defense that has taken a step forward this season and should have a good day against a Roadrunners squad that just allowed Tulsa to come back from 28 down and win.
The biggest game of the week is this top-five clash in Happy Valley, where the Penn State Nittany Lions are looking to get over their bugaboo of losing to elite teams. James Franklin’s program has consistently hung out in the “best of the rest” category and is ready to make its move in the first season of the 12-team playoff. Our Collin Wilson likes the home underdog Lions, which he details just a bit here.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are getting over a touchdown as home underdogs, with the line at +7.5. They have won five of their past six games at home in this rivalry. Concerns for a diminished crowd during a morning game in November are off-base as modern gun deer hunting season, often a drain on the turnout of the Fayetteville faithful, doesn't open until next weekend.
What could matter is Havoc. The Rebels are first in the nation in Defensive Havoc created, but Arkansas’ offense is a ghastly 91st in Havoc allowed. The Razorbacks' offensive line hasn't done enough to protect quarterback Taylen Green. If Lane Kiffin’s crew can cover the number on the road, it'll be because their defense disrupted Arkansas' attack.
Kirby Smart might have something personal against Florida. He was 1-3 against the Gators as a player and his introduction to the rivalry as a freshman was a 52-17 Florida win in Athens the last time this game was played on a campus. That also marked the most points Georgia has ever surrendered between the hedges.
As head coach, Smart is 6-2 in this rivalry and has won each of the past three in dominant fashion. The Bulldogs are favored by 20.5 on Saturday and Georgia is 20-6 ATS under Smart when having more than a week to prepare. Georgia might just turn this into the World’s Largest Outdoor Covering (the spread) Party.
Conference USA action has been headlining our midweek evenings in recent weeks, but this battle is buried in an anonymous slot on Saturday afternoon. What could possibly be notable about this game, in the same window as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party and the No. 1-ranked team taking on the defending champs?
Well, ask sharp bettors that question.
With over 2,000 tickets tracked in the Action Network App, only 12% of the bets are on the Blue Raiders, who are getting a field goal on the road, to cover. However, 81% of the money is backing the underdog, an astonishing 69% discrepancy.
The Oregon Ducks head to the Big House to take on Michigan, a team getting over two touchdowns (+14.5) at home. This game has a little bit of spice, but the question is always whether Michigan’s offense can perform enough to keep these showcase games interesting. The Wolverines did against USC, but not against Texas.
Ducks head coach Dan Lanning might be one of the best coaches in the sport at preparing his team for road games. He is undefeated as a road favorite and is 9-2 against the spread in those contests.
Over 6,000 bets have been tracked on the Action App for this game, and there is widespread agreement on this new-fangled Big Ten conference matchup.
In fact, 94% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the Huskers (-6.5) at home. Additionally, 94% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the over at 39.5. The people have spoken.
The ACC takes center stage in primetime as Louisville and Clemson square off. Stuckey likes the underdog Cardinals getting a little over a touchdown on the road. He lays out the case in his Situational Spots column, where he has a 57% winning percentage over the past three seasons:
All season, we've seen top-tier teams underperform when they step up in class after looking dominant against inferior competition.
The previous six Louisville opponents have an average rank of 32nd, per my latest power ratings. That includes a trio of top-20 teams that are in the College Football Playoff mix.
Meanwhile, Clemson's average opponent rank sits at 73rd with zero inside the top 60.
South Carolina will try to ride it raucous home crowd, a strong run game and an aggressive defense to a massive win — the same formula Texas A&M used last week to take down LSU. The Aggies are getting a field goal on the road, in what should be the wildest environment of the weekend.
There is a quarterback controversy for Texas A&M. The Aggies could ride with Conner Weigman to open up the passing attack, or go with backup Marcel Reed, who is a dynamic runner and really makes the ground game thrive. With South Carolina having perhaps the best duo of edge rushers in the nation in Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard, the Aggies might go with the mobile option to counter the aggressive pass rush. Stay tuned.
If South Carolina isn't the scene with the best crowd this weekend, it's likely SMU will claim that honor. SMU is 7-1 and just completed a three-game road sweep of ACC foes. The Mustangs return home to host the school's biggest game since the Pony Express days.
The Mustangs are a touchdown favorite against the undefeated Pitt Panthers. Both starting quarterbacks, Kevin Jennings of SMU and Eli Holstein of Pitt, are injured but planning to start. This one looks like it'll be a good live betting opportunity after we see how the respective signal callers look.
