Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - January 29, 2023

Bengals at Chiefs

11:30 pm • CBS

Cincinnati Bengals

9-8

20 - 23

Kansas City Chiefs

2-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Bengals 9-8	+2-110	o48.5-110	+113
Chiefs 2-1	-2-110	u48.5-110	-133

Sunday 11:30 p.m.

January 29, 2023

GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumKansas City

CIN -6.5 (Live)+350

Under 46.5 (Live)-116

0.86u

CIN +285 (Live)

0.5u

Over 42.5 (Live)-110

KC -130

2.31u

CIN +250 (Live)

1.5u

J.Burrow o17.5 Rush Yds-110

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-130

0.4u

T.Kelce o6.5 Recs-135

CIN +2-110

2.2u

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-135

MGM: Inspired by @The_Oddsmaker. Mixon’s 26.4 pass snaps avg. has gone down to 13 & 17 in the two playoff games. Appears to have been a change as it’s Perine that has overtaken the 2-Min drill as well as LDD snaps for catching. #PlayerProps

H.Hurst o3.5 Recs-150

Always tail @ChrisRaybon

J.Smith-Schuster u19.5 Longest Reception-112

FanDuel. Under in 10/17 this season, including 6/L8. With Kelce seemingly good to go, and all of the other weapons Mahomes has, I don’t see Juju getting deep looks today. In fact, he’s only seen 2 deep looks all season (20+ air yards), and he’s really not much of a YAC threat.

H.Hurst o3.5 Recs-150

0.67u

@ChrisRaybon #ChrisRaybon

KC -1.5-110

0.91u

@SimonHunterNFL #SimonHunter

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-135

0.74u

@The_Oddsmaker #SeanKoerner

KC -1.5-105

P.Mahomes o9.5 Rush Yds-107

CIN +115

Will hedge based on Kelce news

CIN +2-112

2.24u

Over 47.5-110

0.55u

CZR

K.Toney Anytime TD Scorer+280

0.7u

K.Toney Anytime TD Scorer+280

Project +265 FanDuel QuickSlip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360374166&selectionId[0]=37606056&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

J.Burrow o3.5 Rush Att+118

2.36u

Clear theme from past games vs Chiefs: Burrow uses his legs as a weapon: 5 runs for 10 yds, 5/25, 11/46. Bengals OL poor vs v good Chiefs pressure especially inside should push Burrow to run. KC allows top 5 most run att and yds to QBs. 3+ rushes all but one blowout game this season. Can always get there on kneel downs too. Line is just too low if you can find it. I'd make it at least one full att higher and still like the over. Over this in 13/18 (72%). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-conference-championship-picks-bets-player-props-49ers-vs-eagles-bengals-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

KC -2.5-107

0.93u

Under 48.5-110

0.91u

L.Wilson o8.5 Tackles + Ast-118

1.18u

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-expert-eagles-vs-49ers-chiefs-vs-bengals-picks?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy

P.Mahomes u287.5 Pass Yds-110

0.4u

S.Perine Anytime TD Scorer+480

4.8u

@nick_giffen

J.Burrow Anytime TD Scorer+500

@GDAWG5000

T.Boyd Anytime TD Scorer+310

@GDAWG5000

KC -130

Under 48.5-110

J.Mixon u23.5 Rec Yds-110

At FD: Writeup in Predictive Analytics Best Bets QuickSlip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360461130&selectionId[0]=14810354&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

K.Toney Anytime TD Scorer+280

0.75u

Bet at FanDuel.

Over 48-110

0.88u

J.Burrow o18.5 Rush Yds-120

0.4u

KC -1.5-110

J.Burrow o17.5 Rush Yds-113

FanDuel. KC is 5th in pressure rate. Cinci is missing multiple starters on the line. Burrow’s 12% scramble rate is 4th amongst qualified QBs - 46 yards (23 via scrambles) vs the KC back in week 13, and 25 in last season’s playoff matchup. KC allowed the 3rd most rush attempts and 5th most QB rush yards. I don’t see KC changing their defensive philosophy to protect against Burrow’s rushing, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bengals use a designed rush or two (he had 5 last time be the Chiefs).

J.Mixon o74.5 Rush Yds+205

0.5u

another alt at 365

J.Mixon o19.5 Rush Att+500

0.5u

Bengals lead back has rushed 21, 12, 21x in the 3 KC games. Bengals #2 DVOA run team since week 4, and KC run D is vulnerable. Expect Cincy to help its weak line and keep Mahomes off the field by pounding Mixon all game. This is a terrible alt line at Bet365. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-conference-championship-picks-bets-player-props-49ers-vs-eagles-bengals-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

J.Mixon o57.5 Rush Yds-113

0.5u

Backing Mixon rushing multiple ways. See article for why, protect the banged up OL and keep Mahomes off the field. This is the traditional over. Like even better but can't track on the app: Most rush yards of the weekend +500 PB Most rush yards for the playoffs +250 MGM https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-conference-championship-picks-bets-player-props-49ers-vs-eagles-bengals-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

CIN +0.5 (2H)-104

1.44u

Welcome to Burrowhead. Just can't shake the feeling that Cincinnati is better right now. Better run game, better receivers, better pass rush, better run D, better ST and coaching so far. Mahomes is supposed to be the great equalizer but he just can't be 100% and if he's not then Burrow is just as good or better. I won't be shocked if chiefs come out hot at home but Mahomes health will deteriorate as the game goes on, and Anarumo has made masterful adjustments. I expect Cincy to find answers based on what KC can do. Story of these 3g Bengals won was KC early, Cincy late. Bengals have covered 23 of their last 27 second halves. Prefer +0.5 to ML cuz tie wins, and to +1.5 cuz gross juice not worth the one point. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-conference-championship-picks-bets-player-props-49ers-vs-eagles-bengals-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

KC -127

$200.79

S.Perine Anytime TD Scorer+470

4.7u

T.Boyd Anytime TD Scorer+300

1.1u

Gallant best bet

CIN +0.5 (1H)-110

1.1u

Anderson Best Bet

CIN +1-110

1.1u

Luke Swain / VegasRefund Best Bet

J.Burrow o17.5 Rush Yds-114

Stuckey 2

S.Perine o15.5 Rec Yds-114

1.14u

Stuckey 3

KC -1-110

Simon Says

Under 47.5-110

Exec Decision

S.Perine Anytime TD Scorer+480

4.8u

At FD: Analysis on @TheTDShow on Sunday

KC -110

*sigh*

J.Burrow o17.5 Rush Yds-114

0.88u

#stuckey @Stuckey2

T.Boyd Anytime TD Scorer+310

Bet at DraftKings. KC allowed 2nd-most TDs to slot in NFL. Boyd lines up exclusively in slot. Like Hurst in this spot too but prefer Boyd.

M.Valdes-Scantling o27.5 Rec Yds-102

J.Smith-Schuster o48.5 Rec Yds-115

1.15u

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-145

0.69u

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

J.Mixon u24.5 Rec Yds-117

0.85u

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

KC +1-115

P.Mahomes o279.5 Pass Yds-120

S.Perine o15.5 Rec Yds-110

1.1u

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-120

J.McKinnon o29.5 Rec Yds-114

1.14u

K.Toney u34.5 Rec Yds-114

0.88u

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-132

0.76u

K.Toney u35.5 Rec Yds-110

BetMGM: see player prop guide for full analysis

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-118

FD: see player prop guide for full analysis

J.Burrow o17.5 Rush Yds-108

0.46u

S.Perine o14.5 Rec Yds-120

0.5u

J.Mixon u3.5 Recs-115

0.43u

P.Mahomes o279 Pass Yds-120

0.42u

J.Burrow Anytime TD Scorer+500

Bet at Fanduel. Getting this in now as I can see it dropping more by kickoff. Down to +310 at some books. Had 22 RZ carries during season, rushed for TD in WC vs Ravens and also rushed for TD vs Chiefs in W13. If you have FanDuel and want to tail, use QuickSlip below for easy process: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.360374166&selectionId%5B0%5D=22502304&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

I.Pacheco u1.5 Recs-170

1.02u

H.Hurst o3.5 Recs-155

0.8u

Raybon

H.Hurst o3.5 Recs-150

0.67u

4+ rec in 10-of-15 (67%) this season. Had 3 targets on 6 routes before getting hurt vs. KC. KC allowing 6th-most schedule-adjusted targets per game to TE. True odds should be closer to -200.

I.Pacheco u1.5 Recs-165

Under in 4 of last 5 and 7 of 10 since becoming starter. Fair value for this line should be -233. Pacheco dowsnt play on passing downs and McKinnon taking more early down snaps, Pacheco only 35% snaps total last week. Also a chance CEH returns which could cut into Pacheco's passing snaps.

Under 47-110

0.91u

#chadmillman @millmanc

J.Chase o6.5 Recs-140

1.4u

T.Kelce o78.5 Rec Yds-110

1.1u

KC -115

0.87u

This is risky given the Mahomes injury and the non-zero chance he doesn't even play. But I have a pretty big downward adjustment in my model, and even then, I have the Chiefs favored by more than two points. It's possible this number continues to shift toward the Bengals, in which case betting it now would look dumb. But the injury appears to be more than baked into the line already. Kansas City has a good infrastructure to support a limping Mahomes, and they have the full week to gameplan around his lack of mobility. This might wind up looking dumb, but I'm okay with the risk, personally.

CIN -105

1.05u

Under 48.5-110

opener makes me scared of mahomes news

KC -1-110

PointsBet: Nope. The number is too low as long as QB Patrick Mahomes is active.

CIN +105

CIN +2.5-110

1.1u

Under 51.5-110

0.91u

Thinking this will drop, hitting it while still above the key number of 51. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360271686&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

CIN +3-115

Under 51-110

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NFL Public Betting

Chiefs are 2-1 in their last 5 games.
Chiefs are 1-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chiefs are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Chiefs' last 3 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Chiefs' 2 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	1-2	1-1	4-4-1	1-2	1-2
Bengals	10-7	3-5	7-2	8-5	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Chiefs	2-1	1-1	3-6	2-1	1-2
Bengals	11-6	6-2	5-4	7-6	4-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	2-1	N/A	N/A	2-1	1-2
Bengals	9-8	N/A	N/A	9-4	0-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jan 21st	JAC	W 27-20	-9.5 L	U 52	KC -505
Jan 7th	@LV	W 31-13	-8.5 W	U 52	KC -400
Jan 1st	DEN	W 27-24	-12.5 L	O 46	KC -750
Dec 24th	SEA	W 24-10	-10.5 W	U 50.5	KC -524
Dec 18th	@HOU	W 30-24	-14.5 L	O 48.5	KC -1150

Alex Cappa
G
Cappa is questionable with concussion
Questionable

Sam Hubbard
DE
Hubbard is out with knee
Out
Drew Sample
TE
Sample is questionable with groin
Questionable
Tee Higgins
WR
Higgins is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Geno Stone
S
Stone is questionable with illness
Questionable
Joe Bachie
LB
Bachie is out with groin
Out
Joseph Ossai
DE
Ossai is questionable with illness
Questionable
Cam Taylor-Britt
CB
Taylor-Britt is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Chase Brown
RB
Brown is out with ankle
Out
Charlie Jones
WR
Jones is questionable with groin
Questionable
Amarius Mims
OL
Mims is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jermaine Burton
WR
Burton is out with rest
Out

Mecole Hardman
WR
Hardman is out with knee
Out
Skyy Moore
WR
Moore is doubtful with abdomen
Doubtful
Rashee Rice
WR
Rice is out with leg
Out
Cam Jones
LB
Jones is questionable with illness
Questionable
Jared Wiley
TE
Wiley is out with knee
Out
Spencer Shrader
K
Shrader is out with hamstring
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Bengals

Total

Chiefs

309

Total Yards

357

Total Plays

4.9

Yards Per Play

5.4

Bengals

Passing

Chiefs

270

YDS

326

26/41

Comps/Atts

29/43

5.174

YPA

6.848

1/2

TDs/INTs

2/0

5/32

Sacks/Yards

3/11

Bengals

Rushing

Chiefs

Rush Yards

Attempts

4.176

YPC

2.1

TDs

Bengals

Turnovers

Chiefs

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Bengals

Efficiency

Chiefs

1/3 33.33%

Redzone

2/3 66.67%

6/14 0%

3rd Down

7/14 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

1/1 0%

Bengals

First Downs

Chiefs

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Bengals

Misc

Chiefs

9/71

Penalties/Yards

4/55

27:09

Possession

32:51

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MatchupOverUnder
Bengals 9-8	o24.5+110	u24.5-140
Chiefs 2-1	o24.5-115	u24.5-115

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - January 29, 2023

Bengals at Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

Bengals at Chiefs Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

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How We're Live Betting the AFC Championship

Bengals vs. Chiefs: Our Best Bets for the AFC Championship Game

Bengals vs Chiefs: Stuckey Makes His AFC Championship Game Picks

Bengals vs. Chiefs Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Bengals vs. Chiefs Public Betting Percentages

Bengals

Public

Chiefs

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Bengals vs. Chiefs Injury Updates

Bengals Injuries

Chiefs Injuries

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison

Bengals at Chiefs Team Totals