Bills vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 12, 2023

Bills at Jets

12:15 am • ABC/ESPN

Buffalo Bills

11-3

16 - 22

New York Jets

4-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Bills 11-3	-2.5-110	o44.5-110	-140
Jets 4-10	+2.5-110	u44.5-110	+114

Tuesday 12:15 a.m.

September 12, 2023

MetLife StadiumEast Rutherford

G.Wilson o49.5 Rec Yds-128

BUF -165 (Live)

0.2u

NYJ +2-105

0.95u

NYJ +120

0.3u

BUF -2.5 (Live)-106

0.5u

J.Allen u253.5 Pass Yds-115

0.87u

Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

G.Wilson Anytime TD Scorer+160

$800.00

Follow my Twitter, @Reno_Jonny

BUF -135

1.35u

They aint losin

C.Mosley o8.5 Tackles + Ast+105

J.Poyer o4.5 Tackles + Ast+105

1.05u

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+440

0.5u

D.Kincaid Anytime TD Scorer+400

0.5u

R.Cobb Anytime TD Scorer+550

0.4u

K.Shakir 2+ TDs+7900

0.05u

T.Conklin Anytime TD Scorer+400

C.Uzomah Anytime TD Scorer+700

0.5u

T.Conklin First Touchdown Scorer+2100

0.2u

C.Uzomah First Touchdown Scorer+2800

0.1u

K.Shakir Anytime TD Scorer Yes+900

0.3u

K.Shakir First Touchdown Scorer Yes+4000

0.2u

D.Knox First Touchdown Scorer Yes+2000

0.4u

J.Poyer o4.5 Tackles + Ast-125

0.8u

Tailing my super sick friend @RoyalsProps

T.Conklin Anytime TD Scorer+400

0.4u

Tailing my friend Shayne from VSIN

Under 23 (1H)-110

0.91u

Tailing @TokenPicks for the 100000th time

NYJ +2.5-110

1.36u

D.Cook Anytime TD Scorer+145

Calvin Dook shows up to play ball tonight

A.Lazard o35.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

Fuck it Lazard down there somewhere

D.Kincaid o2.5 Recs-120

0.83u

Tailing 🦫 because everyday is Beaver Day

D.Harris o5.5 Rush Att-132

$66.00

Feels low, probably a donation

NYJ +2.5-110

T.Conklin o2.5 Recs+102

0.2u

Boyd

G.Wilson o65.5 Rec Yds-120

1.2u

Under 44.5-105

BUF -127

$150.00

Tailing Fivestar & tournament winner

J.Cook o14.5 Rec Yds-130

0.77u

@VegasRefund

D.Kincaid o27.5 Rec Yds-110

Via Tim Kalinowski

D.Cook u47.5 Rush Yds-110

0.91u

Via Anthony Dabbundo

A.Lazard o3.5 Recs+115

$44.00

Tailing the Mush Man

Over 44.5-110

$1.00

Under 45.5-110

$0.91

J.Allen o36.5 Rush Yds-115

0.35u

J.Allen o6.5 Rush Att-143

0.25u

Via @PropBetGuy

G.Wilson Anytime TD Scorer+155

0.78u

J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer+185

0.5u

G.Wilson o5.5 Recs-135

J.Allen o6.5 Rush Att-135

J.Poyer o4.5 Tackles + Ast+115

1.15u

A.Rodgers o0.5 Int+115

@nick_giffen

A.Lazard Anytime TD Scorer+285

@GDAWG5000

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+350

@GDAWG5000

G.Davis u45.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

@The_Oddsmaker

NYJ +2-110

0.91u

@SimonHunterNFL

NYJ +2-110

0.91u

G.Davis u46.5 Rec Yds-110

Under 44.5-110

0.91u

Under 44.5-110

$0.91

T.Conklin o20.5 Rec Yds-120

1.2u

D.Cook o60.5 Rush + Rec Yds-125

$1.00

D.Cook u48.5 Rush Yds-105

0.48u

@anthonydabbundo

D.Kincaid o2.5 Recs-120

NYJ +2-110

$0.91

Under 45-110

BUF -2-111

2.22u

G.Wilson o5.5 Recs-125

1.25u

MGM. Going with just receptions - check out my write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-bet-garrett-wilson-monday-night-football-bills-vs-jets-september-11

Under 45.5-110

0.91u

Under 45.5-110

0.91u

We’re going undaaaaaaaa! (Worried about this)

BUF -125

DK up 10 Early Win

Under 45.5-110

A.Lazard Anytime TD Scorer+285

0.5u

Bet at DraftKings. 🦎 Time!

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+350

0.5u

Bet at DraftKings. Knox > Kincaid

J.Allen o36.5 Rush Yds-120

1.2u

Over 45.5-108

J.Allen o6.5 Rush Att-140

1.15u

J.Allen o6.5 Rush Att-143

1.43u

Yes I’m laying juice for this - it’s been a rock solid play for me over the last 2 seasons, with two key data points that I see carrying over to the new season. 1. the close/big game narrative - Allen was 10/16 on this line last season, incl 9/12 in games decided by 2 scores. Jets should keep this close (at home, kept both close last season with an inferior offense, and buffalo not materially better) 2. Pushed past this line in both games vs the jets last season, because they were able to generate a ton of pressure (8 of the 33 sacks the Bills allowed were vs the Jets). Allen’s scramble rate shoots up when he’s pressured, and I see the jets able to get that done again with Quinnen Williams. Plus, good history coming out strong in week one - 9+ attempts in each of his last 4 openers. Damien Harris likely to poach some goal line looks, but most of the upside here is with the scrambles. I have him at 8 attempts.

NYJ +2-110

0.91u

Under 45.5-110

0.5u

NYJ +2.5-110

0.91u

Quickslip to FD https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.380224189&selectionId[0]=50202&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

NYJ +2.5-110

0.91u

NYJ +2.5-110

Bet No. 5 in our contest. Go sign up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

Under 45.5-110

NYJ +2.5-110

$0.91

Under 45.5-110

0.91u

@ChrisRaybon

S.Diggs u68.5 Rec Yds-110

0.75u

Bet365 4:44 Thursday.

Under 46.5-115

0.87u

NYJ +106

1.06u

Available at FanDuel. My model views the Bills as the better team -- but once you account for homefield, I have the Jets as slight favorites. Not only do the Jets add Aaron Rodgers, but they return the key contributors to a defense that ranked second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics last year despite poor turnover luck. The Jets' offensive line has been a big issue throughout training camp, but with Mekhi Becton pushing for a starting spot and Duane Brown potentially healthy by Week 1, it may wind up being an overblown narrative. My model still has the Bills third in its power rankings, so this is very much an endorsement of the Jets' outlook rather than indictment of the Bills'.

BUF PK-110

Featured Insight
Jets QBs had a 62.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- ninth-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed a passer rating of 44.4 in the 4th quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- fourth-best in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Jets did not score a rushing touchdown in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- tied for fewest in NFL. The Bills allowed just 1 rushing TDs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- tied for third-fewest in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Jets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Jets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Jets are 3-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Jets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Jets' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Jets	5-10	2-5	3-4	4-6	1-4
Bills	9-5	4-2	5-3	7-3	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Jets	8-6-1	3-4	5-1-1	5-4-1	3-2
Bills	9-5	5-1	4-4	8-2	1-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Jets	4-10	N/A	N/A	4-6	0-5
Bills	11-3	N/A	N/A	9-1	2-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 26th	@NYG	W 32-24	-6 W	O 38	NYJ -240
Aug 19th	TB	L 6-13	-3 L	U 37	TB -148
Aug 12th	@CAR	W 27-0	+3 W	U 35	NYJ +130
Aug 4th	@CLE	L 16-21	-1.5 L	O 33.5	CLE -135
Jan 8th	@MIA	L 6-11	+4 L	U 37	MIA +175

C.J. Mosley
LB
Mosley is out with neck
Out
Tyron Smith
OL
Smith is out with neck
Out

Chuck Clark
S
Clark is questionable with shin
Questionable
Solomon Thomas
DE
Thomas is questionable with knee
Questionable
Zack Bailey
OL
Bailey is out with back
Out
Quinnen Williams
DE
Williams is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Leki Fotu
DT
Fotu is out with knee
Out
Jake Hanson
OL
Hanson is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Alijah Vera-Tucker
G
Vera-Tucker is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Kene Nwangwu
RB
Nwangwu is out with hand
Out
Michael Carter
CB
Carter is out with back
Out

Jordan Phillips
DT
Phillips is out with wrist
Out
Curtis Samuel
WR
Samuel is questionable with ribs
Questionable
Rasul Douglas
CB
Douglas is questionable with knee
Questionable
Matt Milano
LB
Milano is questionable with biceps
Questionable
Taylor Rapp
S
Rapp is questionable with neck
Questionable
Casey Toohill
DE
Toohill is questionable with ribs
Questionable
Damar Hamlin
S
Hamlin is questionable with back
Questionable
Baylon Spector
LB
Spector is questionable with calf
Questionable
Dorian Williams
LB
Williams is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Tylan Grable
OL
Grable is out with groin
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Bills

Total

Jets

314

Total Yards

289

Total Plays

4.6

Yards Per Play

5.5

Bills

Passing

Jets

236

YDS

140

29/41

Comps/Atts

14/22

4.717

YPA

4.68

1/3

TDs/INTs

1/1

5/19

Sacks/Yards

3/23

Bills

Rushing

Jets

Rush Yards

172

Attempts

4.409

YPC

6.143

TDs

Bills

Turnovers

Jets

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Bills

Efficiency

Jets

1/2 50%

Redzone

1/3 33.33%

5/13 0%

3rd Down

5/13 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

1/1 0%

Bills

First Downs

Jets

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Bills

Misc

Jets

5/40

Penalties/Yards

2/10

33:08

Possession

27:50

Could not load odds

See more NFL Odds

MatchupOverUnder
Bills 11-3	o23.5-105	u23.5-106
Jets 4-10	o21.5-112	u21.5-118

Bills vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 12, 2023

Bills at Jets

Buffalo Bills

New York Jets

Bills at Jets Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

Bills

Jets

Bills vs. Jets Previews & Analysis

Monday Night Football Props: Picks for the QBs & Knox

How to Live Bet New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills | NFL MNF Picks & Props | Bet What Happens Live

Bills vs. Jets: Raybon's Monday Night Football Pick

Our Best Bets for Bills vs. Jets on Monday Night

Bills vs. Jets Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Bills vs. Jets Public Betting Percentages

Bills

Public

Jets

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Jets vs. Bills Injury Updates

Jets Injuries

Bills Injuries

Bills vs. Jets Odds Comparison

Bills at Jets Team Totals