Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - November 10, 2024

🔑 Broncos LIVE ML +162 (FanDuel) 1u The Broncos historically have played Mahomes really well. I’m liking what I’m seeing out of their defense and their offense is moving the ball well. Good value here. The Chiefs have played with fire all year, I think their 1st L is coming today

VIP members are on the #Broncos +7.5 I am going for the “ premium double dip” to win both bets.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-10-anytime-touchdown-round-robin-parlay-pick-prediction

FOLLOW ME ON X @PropBomb Clear strength vs. weakness target here. Brutal matchup for Javonte Williams who’s line is set for just 9.5 carries with positive coach speak that RB Audric Estime could be getting more touches to lower volume and upside. Chiefs rush defense has been elite ranking 2nd best in limiting 10+ yard LongRush (7.7% rate) with two of their 10/ 182 carries coming from Lamar and Baker. As for Javonte’s sake - he hasn’t looked great lately, most recently failing to generate big YPC vs. a terrible Panthers rush defense. Amongst qualified RBs with at least 75 carries, Javonte’s 2.06 yards after carry/attempt ranks 30th out of 31st and most importantly his 7.8% rate of 10+ LongRush ranks 28th out of 31. #PlayerPro

🔬 The broncos are 8 point favorites and should be able to make this a game where they can lead from start to finish. The normal “find Kelce” on broken plays, plays from behind or 3rd downs when he sits in an opening shouldn’t be necessary that’s why I’m not playing receptions here. However….. 🔬Kelce should be able to make the best of the catches he does get, 87 has 157% more yards per route run vs 1 high coverage which the broncos deploy at the leagues 4th highest rate. 🔬Tight end performances of note vs broncos - Otton 7/47 , Bowers 8/97

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-week-10-bets-for-derek-carr-demario-douglas

We are showing an A+ grade for this in our player projections tool for a reason

Kansas City is the best run defense in the league. They've held running backs to the fewest yards per carry and the fewest yards per game. The Chiefs are 2nd in both yards before contact and yards after contact per attempt. They're also 2nd in stuff rate. It's a brutal matchup. Denver's backfield is as crowded as it's been since the short-lived Tyler Badie run. Badie led the team in carries out of nowhere in Week 3 and looked to be securing a larger role, but he got hurt in Week 4 and has been on IR since then. Williams maintained his lead-back status from there, but new challengers have emerged. Jaleel McLaughlin has played more than 30% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, something he hadn't done since Week 5. Audric Estime also played a season-high 10% of the snaps last week. Williams' 54% snap rate in Week 9 was his lowest since Week 3. He earned just half of the running back carries. Estime largely played in garbage time, which could be a factor once again in this spot. Denver is on the road as a touchdown underdog against the last remaining undefeated team. Williams will need the Broncos to keep it close, have success against the best run defense in the league, and choose to prioritize him over the other backs. Just seems like there's a lot that needs to go right for him.

Chiefs are doing a lot of work on late downs, but at least some of that is sustainable given how savvy both Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are. Have this total at 45 despite 10 mph winds.