Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2024

#tailing @nick_giffen

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Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/monday-night-football-prop-for-buccaneers-vs-chiefs-baker-mayfield-completions-bet

Bet365

Pass the Prop play. Check out breakdown over on Player Prop Savant YouTube channel!

N. Gray ⬆️ 21.5 RecY (-115 @ MGM)(+104 w/ boost) THE BLITZ 📽️: 27.78 RecY Let's start by talking about usage/time on the field for Gray. Here are his snap % over the last 4 games: @ LAC: 52% Vs NO: 61% @ SF: 67% @ LV: 72% His snap shares have steadily been rising in an offensive without Rice and the results have been there too. He's cleared this line in all 4 games, averaging just under 40 receiving yards per game. He's had 3 targets or more in 3 of those 4 games and has caught every target (mostly because they are typically high percentage throws). Everyone may be on Kelce today given the matchup, but I'm seeing more value in Gray. TB has allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing TE's per game this season (64.8). What's interesting is they are only allowing 14th most receptions, so their yards per reception allowed is high. They are allowing 12.96 yards per reception to TE's. Hopkins should get more work this week, but shouldn't cut into any of Gray's snaps given the different positions they play. Tampa blitzes at the 4th highest rate this season, which could force the ball out of Mahomes hands early and Gray/Kelce stand to benefit for that.

MNF Play. Writeup coming on X

Gray is over in 4/L4, corresponding with the injury to Rice. L3 weeks, his snap count: 61%, 67%, 72%. A lot of that is blocking, but his route share is trending in the right direction too. Hopkins’ snaps will be up this week, but Insee Gray still factoring in. Watson and Worthy are more big-play, low volume receivers - Gray (along with Kelce, obviously) will mix in more in the intermediate (especially with no JuJu either). Gray is actually the leader amongst active chief’s pass catchers in yards per target. And this is a fantastic matchup: the Bucs allow the third most receiving yards to TEs this season on the highest yards per target. 29th in DVOA vs the position as well (per FTN Fantasy). And this is an achievable line even if the game does get out of hand in the chiefs favor. I do expect KC to dominate possession too.

I mean he keeps doing it

This has also gone up during the day, but I've got the total at 47.8, personally. Both offenses were very efficient in Week 8 despite key injuries at receiver.