Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2024

Rise up

Bijan has been a big part of the Falcons offense through 4 weeks and they love to use him in the passing game. However, this pick is more about the matchup than anything. Through 4 weeks the Buccaneers are allowing the 7th highest target rates to opposing RBs. RBs vs TB: Ekeler: 4 red 52 receiving yards Robinson Jr.: 3 rec 49 receiving yards Montgomery: 5 rec 35 receiving yards Gibbs: 7 rec 22 receiving yards Williams: 4 rec 29 receiving yards Barkley: 2 rec 32 receiving yards Bijan has been over this line in 3/4 games this season and in 13/21 NFL games he has played in. He has also hit in 8/11 games at home in his career and 1/2 in primetime with his only miss vs KC with 21 yards.

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#ProSystem Early season divisional dogs Overall: 106-96-1,52% (ROI:29%) Season:1-5-0,17% (ROI:-63%)

I like the matchup of the Atlanta offense against this Tampa Bay defense. Think we’ll see a strong performance and on the flip side see the Falcons defense cause problems for Tampa Bay, especially in the run game. They’ve seen four extremely tough opponents so far against the rush, and I believe there isn’t a bigger contrast possible between those running games and TB. I think they get the W by a field goal minimum.

Oddsjam

Game Script

Looks like all the touts are on the falcons here tonight, but the public’s on the Bucs. Bucs just beat the breaks off the eagles while the falcons barely edged out the saints at home. The defense slowed down that saints offense and I expect they’ll do the same again at home to the Bucs. Taking 1H as one of my fade the public systems is 68% when fading a Primetime public dog on the road. Also - the whole fade Kirk in prime time is only when he’s a dog. He’s 8-3 as a favorite.

@The_Oddsmaker

🔑 Rachaad White o3.5 receptions +130 (FanDuel) 2u System play. He’s hit the over in 2/4 games. Value: B Grade (+3.99% Edge). 50.5% Win Probability. He is the clear pass catching back for TB and I expect them to throw a lot this game. Great value here

Tailing @wwiseguys

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Giving out on GDD right now

#Tailing @nick_giffen

@GreenDotDaily

Love this straight play for tonight. He has hit this line in every game this year and has 8+ targets in every game. Falcons don’t allow a ton of deep passes so far so expect Godwin to have a big not in the slot

Bq

Sharpest Market Action Play for the Day 🔪📊 Game projected at 41 📉 Under for Divisional Teams on TNF has been 3-0 this season: ⬇️BUF 31 - MIA 10 ⬇️NE 3 - NYJ 24 ⬇️DAl 20 - NYG 15 This is because both teams are more familiar playing each other combined with prime time games historically favouring the under Last year both games between these two teams have went under the total ⚙️17 High Volume Under-Systems Overall: 284-222-3,56% (ROI:8%) Season:11-4-0,73% (ROI:40%)⭐️ Overall: 257-186-5,58% (ROI:11%) Season:16-11-1,59% (ROI:13%)⭐️ Overall: 259-200-5,56% (ROI:8%) Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-36%) Overall: 370-301-8,55% (ROI:6%) Season:13-13-1,50% (ROI:-4%) Overall: 316-254-5,55% (ROI:7%) Season:6-10-0,38% (ROI:-29%) Overall: 293-221-4,57% (ROI:9%) Season:17-16-1,52% (ROI:-2%) Overall: 327-258-4,56% (ROI:7%) Season:9-7-0,56% (ROI:8%) Overall: 269-216-5,55% (ROI:7%) Season:11-11-0,50% (ROI:-5%) Overall: 354-266-6,57% (ROI:10%) Season:14-12-1,54% (ROI:3%) Overall: 314-251-2,56% (ROI:7%) Season:8-5-0,62% (ROI:18%) Overall: 309-247-4,56% (ROI:7%) Season:5-6-0,45% (ROI:-13%) Overall: 400-328-8,55% (ROI:6%) Season:10-12-0,45% (ROI:-13%) Overall: 370-295-5,56% (ROI:7%) Season:11-8-1,58% (ROI:10%) Overall: 313-246-5,56% (ROI:8%) Season:12-8-0,60% (ROI:15%) Overall: 494-406-8,55% (ROI:6%) Season:20-22-1,48% (ROI:-9%) Overall: 165-114-3,59% (ROI:14%) Season:8-7-0,53% (ROI:3%) Overall: 475-377-6,56% (ROI:7%) Season:20-18-1,53% (ROI:1%) If you'd like to see more of these detailed game breakdowns lemme know by dropping a ❤️ Join our 25,000+ Movement! 🚀 https://discord.gg/house-of-degens All slips and updates are posted on X 🐥 https://x.com/VegasIsMyBitchh

All ground my boy

FREE PLAY FOR TODAY. Got this line at 44, unfortunately action doesn’t offer any other lines right now. Still like 43.5!

Tailing @shadybiev

Bijan with some strawberries and bananas

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Buccaneers (3-1) have shown grit in 2024, led by Baker Mayfield's strong play (70.5% completion, 984 yards, 8:2 TD-INT) and chemistry with Chris Godwin (322 yards, 3 TDs). Defensively, they allow 19.5 PPG but struggle against the run. The Falcons, despite adding Kirk Cousins, are inconsistent offensively (22nd in PPG, 18.8) with Cousins throwing 4 TDs and 4 INTs. Tampa's balanced attack gives them the edge.

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/bijan-robinson-player-prop-for-buccaneers-vs-falcons-on-thursday-night-football

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This is pretty much a stimulus check

B. Robinson 25+ Receiving Yards (-130 @ DraftKings) Bijan has cleared this mark in 3 of 4 games this season and his only under still landed above 20 yards. He's averaging 4 targets and 3.8 receptions per game. Tampa has allowed just the 18th most rushing yards this season, but they have allowed the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing TE's. This Atlanta rushing offense has not been effective the last 2 games, and we could easily see a more negative game script here in TB starts hot like they have been. With how unreliable Pitts has been, outside of London there isn't a real second go to target. Bijan should be a prime target out of the backfield, especially if the ground game struggles or they get behind early.

Johnny

Tailing @shadybiev

Sandy

I like backing RB2s on TNF due to the short week. We also get the added bonus of Bijan being limited earlier in the week with his hamstring injury. He did practice in full yesterday and is “good-to-go”, but we likely see a lot of Allgeier here anyways. Not to mention Allgeier has been great with his touches this season. 6.1 YPC and 9th in the NFL in explosive rush rate. Tampa Bay will have Vita Vea here, but their run defense has been pretty bad anyways (he’s only missed one game). On the season, they’re bottom 5 in YPC and explosive run rate allowed. PFF has them graded as the 3rd worst run defense (48.3).

London leads Atlanta with 31 targets and a 26.1% target share. However, his production is heavily skewed toward facing man coverage. London's target share jumps to 35.9% against man coverage looks this season. He has 14 targets vs. man coverage, while Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Kyle Pitts have only combined for 18. But against zone? Different story. London still leads the way in usage, but just barely. Mooney and McCloud are both within 3 targets and 4% target share. McCloud actually has 2 more receptions than London against zone coverage. Both McCloud and Mooney have better yards per route and yards per target numbers. Atlanta just faced two teams that rank top 8 in man coverage rate (Kansas City and New Orleans). Now, they get the defense that leads the league in zone coverage rate. Tampa Bay's 84.4% zone rate is 2.5% higher than the next-closest team (Chargers). The Bucs and Chargers are the only teams above 80%. Even while dominating targets, London has maxed out at 67 receiving yards through 4 games.

Vs Zone coverage, White has 11 catches on 12 targets which is the 2nd highest on the team behind Godwin. He has the highest TGT% on the team vs zone and I think he’s used heavily if trailing. Atlanta has an elite secondary which should limit the deep concepts and increase checkdowns. Interesting fact I found was white played 7 snaps in the slot last week which has increased every week. This tells me the coaching staff has confidence in him and is finding new ways to get him the ball in space where he’s at his best. We saw a lot of 2 rb sets last week, Tampa is not giving up on him and neither am I

C. Otton ⬆️ 3.5 Receptions (+135 @ 365) THE BLITZ 📽️: 3.85 Recs I like this price a lot. Cade is coming off back to back 6 and 7 catch games and gets a very solid matchup this week vs ATL. Here is where Cade ranks in offensive stats for TB: Targets: 3rd Receptions: 3rd Rec Yards: 4th Passing snaps: 1st He's pretty clearly the 3rd option in this passing attack and was last season as well. He is on the field a ton, leading the team in passing snaps, including ahead of Evans and Godwin. He is used to block some, but still runs a route on 86.4% of passing plays. The easiest way to attack ATL's defense is in the middle of the field. Last season they allowed the 4th most receptions to opposing TE's and this season have allowed 12th most so far. Let's look at some more advanced stats and where ATL's defense ranks: aDOT: 2nd lowest Air Yards: 6th fewest Catch Rate Allowed: 2nd most Catch Target %: 2nd highest Wide Target %: 3rd fewest Slot Target %: 3rd highest In summary, this defense tends to allow shorter receptions with a high target and catch rate. They allow a low target % to outside WR's and give up much more to WR's lined up in the slot. This all plays to our advantage. A shorter passing game makes me like receptions more and Otton runs plenty out of the slot. The ATL defense is also capable at bringing pressure, which is another reason why offenses tend to get the ball out quick. They rank 15 in time to pressure and 18th in pressure percentage. This season ATL has allowed the 7th most checkdown throw percentage this season. I think we see Otton continue to be the security blanket in this one. Last season in two games vs this divisional opponent, he had 5 and 6 targets.

This is just too high of odds.

🔬Going Back to London to kick off week 5. Drake sees a TB defense that runs cover 3 the 3rd most in the league 🔬London has one of the top 10-15 Target shares vs zone and his first read target share hit 50% last game. Drake has the 2nd highest first read target share in the NFL over the last 3 weeks 🔬Londons last 3 games vs TB - 10/172, 6/54, 6/120 🔬As long as a game is close or the Falcons are behind i think we see that 6 is actually more like Londons floor rest of season

Over in 3/4, with the miss in a tough spot vs DET. The other three games he’s been consistently great: 10/49, 9/70, 9/62. And now he gets the Falcons who are allowing a ton of volume (23.8 RB rush att per game, and 36 total rushes per game), and with below avg results (22nd in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA in rush defense). Troy Anderson (Falcons off-ball LB) is banged up too - would be a nice bonus if he can’t go. Irving has been better than White all season, and his snap share has been creeping in the right direction. And I like Tampa to keep this one close at least enough to be running the ball in the 4Q. I see him with 11-12 attempts on Thursday, which should have him in the mid 40s.