Commanders vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2024

Via Jared Smith - The Extra Point

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-picks-today-for-drake-maye-jayden-daniels

Two of the league’s best rushing qb’s face off in this game. I give the advantage to Daniels because he doesn’t need to run to win in this spot. His team is 1st in the league at passing yards from Shotgun, against a defense that is 31st in the league at yards allowed from shotgun. Ravens will pick their poison, and Daniels will make them pay

-111 devig odds with 1% ev giving us value and projection leans to the over with good history and matchup

Henry has been a beast this season with the Ravens as the dynamic duo of him and Lamar has proven tough for opposing defenses to stop. This week Henry will take on the Commanders who have struggled against the run this season. The Commanders defense rank 22nd against the run and have allowed every running back they have faced to go over their longest rush line. RBs that hit their line vs WSH: Irving 31 yard run Moss 15 yard run Chase 16 yard run Conner 20 yard run Ford 16 yard run Henry has hit this line in 4 straight games and it hasn't even been close as every game he has sprung a moster run for AT LEAST 29 yards. Great matchup for Henry to break one yet again for the 5th straight week!

Under in 4/5. Another matchup against a team that plays heavy man coverage (Ravens at the 8th highest rate). Ertz has four of Daniels’ 38 targets against zone, and only 1 of 26 completions (7 yards). BAL has allowed long receptions to TEs - but they’ve also faced the gauntlet of TEs (Kelce, Bowers, Ferguson, Kincaid). Ertz’s route tree looks much different than those guys.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-6-player-prop-picks-lamar-jackson-jonathan-mingo

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Adding .4u’s to this play! Free play for tomorrow! Previously had .1u out.

-5/L5 WR1s vs BAL had a 30+ Long Reception -BAL allowing the 5th highest YPR -55, 66 Long reception in last 3 games -Expecting WAS to be trailing most of the game as they are big road dogs & Lamar has dominated NFC opponents in his career (21-1 record)

Early NFL free play. Stay tuned. I’m either adding units or getting on a different play!

- Baltimore is a top 3 run defense in basically every metric, and they are a massive pass-funnel. Along with Baltimore having an elite offense that should run it up on this awful Commanders defense, this should just be a massive pass volume game here for the Commanders. - Baltimore is allowing 304 pass yards/game, the most in the NFL. - The Ravens play mostly zone, 70.2% of the time, but don't run cover 2 (only 4.8% of the time, 3rd lowest). Vs Covers 3, 4, & 6, Daniels literally had the highest yards/attempt in the NFL (min 20 pass attempts). He is averaging 10.37 yards/attempt vs these coverages. - Brian Robinson has not practiced this week, which is just another thing that if he doesn't go will help with pass volume. - Baltimore should be prepared for Daniels legs and scrambling, given they employ Lamar Jackson. So far this year, QB's rushing vs BAL: Mahomes: 2-3 Minshew: 1- (-1) Dak 2-7: Allen: 5-21 Burrow: 2-1 They just haven't allowed scrambles so far. I don't think Daniels has a big game with his legs here either. - This play just checks all the boxes here, have to play it.

FanDuel

Great read by @moneyplayzz

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-6-luck-rankings-picks-4-games-fit-thresholds