Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 22, 2024

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Targeting one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. BAL defense pass rate over expected this season ranks 2nd highest (+7.0%). BAL run defense ranks 1st in YPC allowed and 3rd in YBC/attempt. Their pass defense is much worse. 2nd highest pass YPA allowed and 6th highest completion rate over expected allowed. 5/6 QBs have cleared their passing yards lines as a result (see graphic).

Oddsjam

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4.03% ev and projection leans to the over

@nick_giffen

logging leans

Ravens need this win for the division. Baltimore seems quite disrespected with this number.

Giving out on GDD

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Flowers leads the team with a 26.6% target share, and no other player is above 15%. He has been at or above a 25% target share in all but one game. Flowers faces a Tampa Bay defense that has been torched through the air. They have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game. Starting cornerback Jamel Dean has been ruled out for tonight's game with a hamstring injury. On offense, Tampa Bay seems equipped to hang with Baltimore. They just hung 51 points on New Orleans and come in as the second-highest scoring offense in the league through Week 6. Opponents keeping pace with the Ravens is important when it comes to the passing game.

Baker is over this line in 2/L3 games as he has gotten some really good matchups vs weak secondaries. This week he draws another vs one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Ravens come into this game ranked 31st in passing yards allowed, giving up an average of 275.7 yards per game through the air. Baker is over this line in 3/6 games this season and will be at home, where he plays his best ball. At home this season, Baker is over this line in 2/3 games with 289 and 347 yards, but looking back to his past 10 at home, he has hit this line in 7/L10. The Ravens have allowed every single QB except Josh Allen to go over this line against them. QB's against the Ravens pass defense: Jayden Daniels 269 yards 2 TDs Joe Burrow 392 yard 5 TDs Dak Prescott 379 yards 2 TDs Gardner Minshew 276 yards 1 TD Patrick Mahomes 291 yards 1 TD The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL, so I expect the Bucs to be airing it out in primetime.

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Looks like Mike Evans good to go

Evans has cleared this line in 3/6 games. Two misses make sense - DEN (Surtain) and NO (his bff Lattimore). The other was against DET where baker only threw 19 passes in a flukey gamescript. This should be a solid spot vs BAL - the Ravens have allowed the third most receiving yards to WRs per game this season (187). They also rank third to last against deep balls. The Bucs won’t be able to run much in this one - BAL is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game and rank 3rd in DVOA (per FTN). But against the pass, the Ravens have struggled with outside receivers: McLaurin + Brown 111 yards, Chase + Higgins 276 yards, Davante 110, Lamb 67 (all outside). Love this buy low spot.

Sandy

I’m so done with this NFL bullshit man

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Johnny

TAN pod / best bets

Exec Decision

Planting an early flag. Bucs outright.