Guardians vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - October 18, 2022

Guardians at Yankees

8:07 pm • TBS

Cleveland Guardians

2-3

1 - 5

New York Yankees

3-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
N.Cortes			4.50	1-0
A.Civale			81.00	0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 2-3	+1.5-155	o7+103	+150
Yankees 3-2	-1.5+130	u7-124	-178

Tuesday 8:07 p.m.

October 18, 2022

Yankee StadiumBronx

Under 7-120

NYY -0.5 (F5)-120

0.5u

NYY -175 (F5)

0.5u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)+115

1.15u

NYY -170

0.5u

Under 8.5 (Live)-105

Under 9 (Live)+100

0.25u

MGM. With Civale out

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)+172

0.34u

Dk boost

NYY -0.5 (F5)-125

NYY -1.5+132

1.32u

NYY -175

Over 6.5-130

LosOmar

NYY -1-115

Under 7-110

0.91u

#SeanZerillo @Zerillo

NYY -175 (F5)

0.29u

#SeanZerillo @Zerillo

O. Gonzalez o0.5 Hits-180

0.18u

Fanduel. Bet to -186. Sabersim Projects 1.0. And good matchup vs pitch types

NYY -175

CLE +145

0.5u

I’m terrible at baseball. Pure hate bet

N. Cortes u3.5 Ks+130

0.33u

DK. Total closed 4 for Game 1, and wont have nearly as long of a leash on short rest

A. Civale u3.5 Ks-125

0.25u

DK. Sharper books have this at -150. Real chance he faces the lineup one time. Wouldn’t bet much past this price

CLE +150

0.8u

Available at FanDuel. The push back to today did lower the Guardians in my model, primarily because they are rough against lefties. Their win odds went from 50% there to 45.5% today. But that's still above the implied odds of 40%, allowing me to bet them again after yesterday's was voided. I'm handicapping this as if it's a blend of Bieber and Civale, given that they no longer have a starter listed despite saying Civale would start regardless. That's a stout combo, especially when you factor in how good the Guardians' bullpen is. I think this game stays low-scoring, a situation that favors taking the underdog, especially when you're getting pretty favorable odds to do so.

N. Cortes u4.5 Ks-154

0.16u

Fanduel - full K too high - leash should be short

NYY -170 (F5)

0.5u

Fanduel. Bet to -180. Prefer First 3 Innings ML (-150 at CZR). And will look to bet Cleveland Live after the bullpens enter

Under 7-115

0.5u

DK/Caesars. Bet to 6.5 (-103)

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The Guardians are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season -- 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Myles Straw has an OPS of just .564 this season -- second worst in MLB-- first Percentile. Nestor Cortes has allowed an OPS of just .554 (615 PAs) this season -- fourth best among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

Owen Miller is batting just .225 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for fifth worst among hitters with at least 241 total PA's-- third Percentile. Nestor Cortes has a strike rate of 67% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Aaron Civale has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (1 games) -- tied for most among pitchers in MLB -- 100th Percentile.

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .592 (74 Total Bases / 125 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .376 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	80-82	35-46	45-36	62-72	18-9
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	87-69-6	45-33-3	42-36-3	76-54-4	11-14-2
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	8-6	44-37	50-31	76-58	18-9
Guardians	4-6	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 16th	@CLE	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 6.5	NYY -160
Oct 15th	@CLE	L 5-6	-1.5 L	O 6.5	CLE -118
Oct 14th	CLE	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 6	CLE -162
Oct 11th	CLE	W 4-1	-1.5 W	U 7	NYY -200
Oct 5th	@TEX	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 8	TEX -107

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
P
Means is out with elbow
Out
David Fry
C
Fry is out with elbow
Out
Daniel Espino
P
Espino is out with shoulder
Out

Giancarlo Stanton
DH
Stanton is out with elbow
Out

Clarke Schmidt
P
Schmidt is questionable with back
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Civale, P	26	0.1	1	3
LS.Hentges, P	30	1.2	2	1
RT.Stephan, P	33	2.1	4	1
RJ.Karinchak, P	30	2.1	3	0
RE.Clase, P	19	1.1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-4	0	0
2A.Rosario, SS	1-3	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	0	1
4O. González, RF	0-4	0	0
5J.Naylor, DH	0-4	0	0
6G.Arias, 1B	1-4	0	0
7A.Gimenez, 2B	0-4	0	0
8A.Hedges, C	1-2	1	0
8O.Miller, PH	1-1	0	0
8L.Maile, C	1-1	0	0
9M.Straw, CF	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LN.Cortes, P	61	5	2	1
RJ.Loaisiga, P	25	2	2	0
RC.Holmes, P	15	1	2	0
LW.Peralta, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Torres, 2B	0-3	2	0	0
2A.Judge, RF	2-4	1	1	1
3A.Rizzo, 1B	1-3	1	0	1
4G.Stanton, DH	1-4	1	1	3
5J. Donaldson, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
6O.Cabrera, SS	0-4	0	0	0
6O.Cabrera, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7H.Bader, CF	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Trevino, C	1-4	0	0	0
9A. Hicks, LF	0-1	0	0	0
9M. Gonzalez, LF	0-1	0	0	0
9M.Carpenter, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9I.Kiner-Falefa, SS	0-0	0	0	0