Mets vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 14, 2024

Mets at Dodgers

8:08 pm • FOX

New York Mets

2-4

7 - 3

Los Angeles Dodgers

4-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Brasier			5.00	1-1
S.Manaea			4.74	2-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 2-4	+1.5	+1.5-166	o8.5-102	+130
Dodgers 4-2	u8.5	-1.5+140	u8.5-118	-155

Monday 8:08 p.m.

October 14, 2024

Dodger StadiumLos Angeles

LAD +4.5 (Live)+120

1.2u

LAD +114 (Live)

NYM +120

1.2u

Over 4.5 (F5)-108

0.46u

S.Manaea u4.5 Ks+114

0.5u

Over 8.5+100

LAD o4.5 Team Total+105

S.Manaea u5.5 Ks-150

S. Manaea ⬇️ 5.5 K's (-155 @ Fliff/365) THE BAT X 📽️: 4.39 K's Let's start by taking a look at how the starters vs LAD have faired through game 1 and the Padres series: NYM - Senga: 1.1 IP, 0 K's SDP - Darvish: 6.2, 4 K's SDP - Cease: 1.2, 1 K SDP - King: 5 IP, 3 K's SDP - Darvish: 7 IP, 3 K's SDP - Cease: 3.1 IP, 5 K's So not one starter they have seen thus far has cleared this mark. Meanwhile, LAD ranks 22nd in K-rate vs LHP over the last 30 days. Manaea saw LAD earlier this season (4/19) and registered just 3 K's over 5 innings. Manaea has pretty large K splits at home vs on the road. He K's 28.3% at home, but only 21.6% on the road. Unsurprisingly, Manaea K's more lefties than righties, so let's look at the lefties he'll face today: **_K-rate vs LHP_** Ohtani: 23.3% 🟢 Freeman: 15.2% 🟢 Muncy: 28.9% 🟡 So he'll likely only face 3 lefties today and 2 of the 3 are bad matchups for Manaea. Against this current LAD roster, Manaea only holds a 19.4% K-rate over the course of his career. Add into the fact that there may be a shorter leash, especially if he struggles, and there is more urgency to win game 2 for NYM after dropping game 1. I like this spot a lot!

K.Hernandez o0.5 RBI+320

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NYM +120

0.9u

M.Betts o1.5 Total Bases+125

Under 8.5-115

1.5u

Under 8.5-110

0.83u

Bet to 8 (-102)

S.Manaea u5.5 Ks-150

1.5u

Only a 21.6% K% on the road, and now gets a Dodgers team that K’ed at the second lowest rate vs lefties at home this season. Plus, Dodgers with a great history off Manaea, who won’t have a long leash down 0-1 already.

NYM +125

0.63u

Bet to +122

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The Dodgers are 96-53 (.644) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .538.

Will Smith has struck out in just 8% of PA's over the last two weeks -- 11th lowest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Sean Manaea has a strikeout rate of just 17% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- fifth lowest among qualified SPs-- ninth Percentile.

Ryan Brasier has a strike rate of 70% (610/876) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season -- tied for 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% -- 97th Percentile.

Ryan Brasier allowed a just .282 SLG last season -- 13th best among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile. He allowed a SLG of .481 in the 2022 season -- eighth worst among qualified RPs-- third Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	11-5	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12
Mets	7-6	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 14th	NYM	W 9-0	-1.5 W	O 8	LAD -162
Oct 12th	SD	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 8	LAD -155
Oct 10th	@SD	W 8-0	+1.5 W	U 8	LAD +114
Oct 9th	@SD	L 5-6	+1.5 W	O 7.5	SD +122
Oct 7th	SD	L 2-10	-1.5 L	O 8	SD -155

Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.Manaea, P	87	5	7	2
RP.Maton, P	26	1.1	0	0
RR.Stanek, P	26	1.1	1	0
RE.Diaz, P	29	1.1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	1-4	2	1	1
2M.Vientos, 3B	2-5	1	1	4
2L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, LF	0-4	0	0	0
3H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5S.Marte, RF	3-5	1	0	1
6J.Winker, DH	1-3	1	0	0
7J.Iglesias, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
7J.Iglesias, 3B	1-5	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	1-3	1	0	1
8T.Taylor, LF	1-3	1	0	1
9F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Brasier, P	18	1	0	1
RL.Knack, P	55	2	2	5
LA.Banda, P	18	1	1	0
RB.Honeywell, P	57	3	2	0
RE.Henriquez, P	36	2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Ohtani, DH	0-3	0	0	0
2M.Betts, RF	0-4	1	0	0
3T.Hernandez, LF	0-3	1	0	0
4F.Freeman, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
5W.Smith, C	0-4	0	0	0
6T.Edman, SS	3-4	0	0	2
7M.Muncy, 3B	1-2	1	1	1
8K.Hernandez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Pages, CF	1-4	0	0	0