Phillies vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - August 22, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Cristopher Sanchez is on the bump for the Phillies, making his 25th start of the season with a solid 9-8 record and a 3.46 ERA. His 1.25 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, and 6.9 K/9 is a sign that he's maintained control over the last 140 1/3 innings. He was dominant in his very last outing, going the complete game while giving up 1 earned run on 2 hits with no walks and 4 strikeouts in a 5-1 victory over the Nationals. The Braves will counter Schwellenbach with Spencer, who is 4-6 on the year with a 4.04 earned run average in his 14th start. He has a good WHIP at 1.07 with a 1.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 over 75 2/3 innings pitched. He has made one start against the Phillies in his career: six innings, a little run in six frames, and 6-0 in K/BB. The conditions also lend well to the pitchers with a center field wind blowing in that can help further stifle offense. The under trend has been prevalent for the Braves of late—7 in the last ten of their games— and the first two games of this series played below the total with just 5 and 4 total runs. Adding in to that is the fact that hitters from both teams are becoming extremely familiar with one another and with the game headed to Atlanta—the Braves hold the 2nd best -rated bullpen to maintain a low-scoring environment. Given the strong pitching performances, favorable weather conditions, and recent trends, a low-scoring game is a likely outcome in this matchup.

Duvall comes into this game 1 for his last 29 with 17 Ks. Only in there to hit against a lefty, but he has 10 hits in 51 PAs vs lefties against Sanchez’ three main pitches (changeup, sinker, slider). He won’t stay in to face a righty (.146 vs righties - Kelenic would come in). Yes, Sanchez struggles on the road. But even giving Duvall a home bump, I project value on this one down to +120.

windy unders Overall: 710-477-46,60% (ROI:15%) Season:22-26-1,46% (ROI:-11%)

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Flat to -105