Phillies vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - August 21, 2024
Phillies at Braves
11:20 pm • NBCS-PHStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | ![]() | 3.25 | 11-10 | |
![]() | ![]() | 3.57 | 14-8 |
Phillies at Braves Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Phillies 0-1 | -1.5+151 | o8-101 | -112 | |
![]() Braves 0-1 | +1.5-180 | u8-118 | -107 |
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Truist ParkAtlanta
Phillies vs. Braves Expert Picks
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Zense
185d ago
Last 30d: 55-55-2 (+4.3u)
PHI -112
0.89u
#5Starsmlb
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Picks Office
186d ago
Last 30d: 86-90-2 (-15.3u)
Under 8-115
0.87u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
The Phillies have an opportunistic offense that stands 8th in runs per game at 4.86 and 6th in batting average at .257, even though recently they have been spotty, most against strong pitching. This was evident in their loss yesterday against Atlanta 1-3, where they were held to five hits and a run. Even the top of its order—including stars Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper—went a combined 0-for-12 with seven strikeouts, showing vulnerability against quality pitching.
The Phillies have been pretty strong this year, especially when it comes to pitching, particularly out of the bullpen, sitting at 3.71 ERA. That bullpen could make major contributions tonight if Nola has the grind to put on a good start. He was solid against Atlanta in his career and currently has a 3.45 ERA with 142 strikeouts; through the last few outings, he looks able to shut down the Braves.
To the opposite side, even though Atlanta has been much less consistent overall, ranking 16th in runs per game at 4.32 and 17th in batting average at .241. Not having Austin Riley – who will miss the remainder of the regular season with a fractured wrist – makes a huge difference on what this offense is capable of doing. Of course, Marcell Ozuna still leads them in homers and average, with 37 and .309, respectively, , but the lineup around him has remained spotty, as evidenced by just three runs scored yesterday.
Fried, the Braves' starter, has not been in excellent form since his injury, but he still remains a rather capable pitcher. His history against Philadelphia is 4.17 ERA, indicating that he can at least establish a quality start, especially at home where the Braves have seen the Under hit frequently—36-15-1 for the last 52 home games.
Atlanta's staff, including a bullpen with an ERA of 3.69 (3rd in MLB) and WHIP of 1.23 (9th), can contain the Philadelphia offense. Another fact is that the Braves' defense has been stout, committing only 53 errors this season to stay at 5th in MLB. That further cuts down on the chance of unearned runs.
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Tanner McGrath
186d ago
Last 30d: 49-56-1 (-13.5u)
Under 7.5-105
1u
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Proptology _
186d ago
Last 30d: 4-2-0 (+3.1u)
B.Harper o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-120
1.2u
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Rocket Plays
186d ago
Last 30d: 38-54-3 (+9.0u)
N.Castellanos o1.5 Total Bases+115
1u
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Top Shelf Action 🥃
186d ago
Last 30d: 541-522-15 (+47.2u)
Under 7.5-102
0.98u
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Shady Biev
186d ago
Last 30d: 169-185-7 (-17.0u)
PHI -115
2u
Scott Rickenbach
186d ago
Last 30d: 88-77-3 (+1.4u)
PHI -107
0.93u
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Billy Ward
186d ago
Last 30d: 12-21-0 (-3.6u)
Over 0.5 (1st Inn)+105
1u
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Sean Zerillo
186d ago
Last 30d: 39-48-1 (-1.2u)
Under 8+100
0.5u
Flat to -101
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Boomer Betz
186d ago
Last 30d: 159-121-4 (+59.7u)
PHI +102
1.02u
Phillies vs. Braves Previews & Analysis
Phillies vs. Braves Notes
Keys to the Game
The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Matchup Contrasts
Matt Olson is batting just .197 on breaking pitches from RHP since the 2022 season -- 10th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 30% of the time since the 2022 season -- tied for 10th highest among starting pitchers with at least 179 total CB-- 93rd Percentile.
Marcell Ozuna has an OPS of .860 since the 2022 season -- 13th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Jose Ruiz has allowed an OPS of .786 (628 PAs) since the 2022 season -- fifth worst among qualified RPs-- third Percentile.
Today's Starting Pitchers
Hitters have chased 663 of Aaron Nola's 1,437 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 179 total IP; League Avg: 32% -- 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has 114 three-pitch strikeouts since the 2022 season -- most among pitchers in MLB -- 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has walked 4 of 18 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days -- highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% -- second Percentile.
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Phillies vs. Braves Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Braves vs. Phillies Injury Updates
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Braves Injuries
- Ronald AcunaOF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
- Austin RileyIF
Riley is out with hand
Out
- Spencer StriderP
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
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Phillies Injuries
- Max KeplerOF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
- Jesus LuzardoP
Luzardo is out with back
Out
Phillies vs. Braves Box Score
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PITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 100 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | |
![]() | 4 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | |
![]() | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
![]() | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
![]() | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
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PITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 91 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
![]() | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
![]() | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
![]() | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Phillies vs. Braves Odds Comparison
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Phillies at Braves Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
![]() Phillies 0-1 | o3.5-140 | u3.5+110 |
![]() Braves 0-1 | o3.5-125 | u3.5-105 |