Rays vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - August 24, 2024

Small to +165

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice It's clear, starting with Bobby Miller, the right-hander for the Dodgers isn't in amazing form. Again, one digs deeper at the context. It wasn't like Miller came into the game trailing off an excellent performance against the St. Louis Cardinals, in which he allowed four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings and really battled with his command. His underlying metrics indicated potential for a bounce-back. His ability to generate swings on pitches in the strike zone, with a ZoneSw% of 71.8%, and his tendency to pitch on the corners, with an Edge% of 40.4%, outlines that he is able to give up weak contact, especially against a Rays lineup that has really been anemic against right-handed pitching. The Rays are batting a mere .204 with a meager .186 slugging percentage against righties, one of the worst marks in the league. It's a big part of why, despite that many plate appearances with men on base, the Rays sit 28th in runs per game at 3.85 and 27th in batting average at .230. Additionally, with a strong Dodgers bullpen ready to step into action, what can be fertile struggles from Miller could be mitigated by these failures of the Rays to capitalize on such opportunities. For the most part, though, the Dodgers' bullpen has been really good of late, having allowed an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP above 0.83 in their last three games, which would appear to strike off the damage that Miller may allow in the early going. On the mound for Tampa Bay, a lefty Tyler Alexander will try to continue his recent stretch of effectiveness, sporting a 5.17 ERA but showing signs of effectiveness of late. Alexander does have a 1.28 WHIP, so he has been pretty good at limiting baserunners. He also has walked only 5.5 percent of batters, which is extremely important to prevent big innings. Now, in his last five appearances, Alexander's ERA stands at a very respectable 2.25, indicating his effectiveness over the last few appearances compared with his overall stats this season. For the most part, the Dodgers are really good offensively, falling to .222 with a .322 OBP and .303 SLG against lefties. Even with stars like Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in their lineup, the Dodgers still haven't been able to string together any runs consistently against lefties—and that could be big in this game. The recent trends further support the Under. Tampa Bay has gone under in seven of their past eight Friday games, which indicates they lean toward low-scoring affairs to start the weekend. The Under has also hit in 16 of the last 21 meetings between these teams, as there is a trend for low-scoring games when these clubs go at it. Despite the Dodgers' surge of late in terms of offense, the Under has cashed when they face lefties, because their production falls off with southpaws on the hill. Lastly, the bullpens; both have elite bullpens in good form of late. The Rays sport an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP at 1.07, showing shut-down ability late. On the Dodgers side, their bullpen has been even more impressive, which again will keep this game under the total when considering things could go awry with these starters early on.