Heat vs. Celtics Odds & Betting Predictions - May 26, 2023

Heat at Celtics

12:30 am • TNT

Miami Heat

4-3

97 - 110

Boston Celtics

3-4

110

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 4-3	+8.5-110	o215-110	+250
Celtics 3-4	-8.5-110	u215-110	-310

Friday 12:30 a.m.

May 26, 2023

TD GardenBoston

C.Martin o14.5 Pts+Ast-110

1.1u

J.Tatum o30.5 Pts-112

1.12u

C.Martin u13.5 Pts-111

0.45u

G.Williams u13.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

0.83u

Over 214.5-110

1.1u

MIA o103.5-108

1.1u

#ProProjection #PropBet #ECF #HeatNation

BOS -8.5-105

M.Strus o19.5 Pts+700

0.15u

Dart throw

G.Williams o8.5 Pts-110

0.55u

BOS -5 (1H)-110

Under 109 (1H)-110

J.Butler u6.5 Ast-140

He’s only cleared this in 1 of 4 games this series despite converting on 24/37 (65%) of his potential assists (52% on the season). Playing without Vincent tonight (who is 11/22 from beyond the arc this series) will most likely increase Butler’s usage rate and hurt his assist rate. Heat have scored 115 pts/g this series but have a team total of 103.5. Good time to fade Butler’s ast and I’m projecting this closer to -180.

Under 215.5-110

0.91u

Via Sean Little

Over 215.5-110

@HPBasketball

J.Tatum u31.5 Pts-130

High #. U 10 of L12 vs. MIA. He scored 33 PTS going 6-12 (50%) on pull-ups (6.8 FGA avg.), but was held to 5 FGA <10 ft. (9.2 FGA avg). Possibly gets Highsmith defense too. No Gabe opens up JB & could get more involved. #PlayerProps

MIA +250

Gentleman 🧹

BOS o111.5-114

0.5u

Over in 8/9 wins during the Playoffs averaging 114.3 in those victories.

BOS o111.5-114

0.5u

BOS o121.5+420

0.4u

Under 109.5 (1H)-110

K.Lowry Double-Double (Yes)+1100

0.1u

B.Adebayo o20.5 Pts+Ast-115

BOS -7.5-115

0.87u

Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

BOS -320

J.Brown u33.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-113

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-prop-pick-fade-jaylen-brown-heat-vs-celtics-may-25

Under 110 (1H)-110

Under 215.5-108

Under 110 (1H)-110

1.27u

Under 215.5-110

1.27u

M.Smart o9.5 Rebs+Ast-145

$72.50

Have to run this one back

G.Williams o6.5 Pts-110

0.83u

Love this look from @JoeDellera

G.Williams o6.5 Pts-110

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-odds-picks-predictions-andersons-bets-for-celtics-vs-heat-game-5-may-25

G.Williams o9.5 Pts+230

0.5u

G.Williams o11.5 Pts+425

0.25u

Escalator SZN

K.Love u10.5 Pts+Rebs-120

1.2u

Spo doesn’t play him in Q2 & Q4 & he’s 63% from 3PT (not sustainable). U1.5 3PM is -234. Avg. 3.5 reb chances L2. Plays 90% of min w/ floor-spacer Al as the C for BOS, & Tatum targets him on defense to bring away from rim. #PlayerProps

G.Williams o11.5 Pts+425

0.25u

G.Williams o9.5 Pts+230

0.25u

G.Williams o6.5 Pts-110

Mins were up last game & shots were flowing. He played the most mins of any BOS big (29.2). Over in 3 this series & in 83% of games w/ 25+ mins. I love over 11.5 (+425 Bet365) - 46% hit rate.

C.Martin o14.5 Pts+185

0.5u

C.Martin u18.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

G.Vincent u18.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

Under 110.5 (1H)-110

0.91u

@ChrisRaybon

G.Vincent u18.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

1.25u

Rolled his ankle in Game 4 & may not be fully healthy. Bound to regress. U2.5 is -148. He’s gone under 19 PRA in 12/15 games this happened playing 27+ MIN. Butler more ball handling, turns him into a SG avg. 3.3 pAST L4. #PlayerProps

Under 110.5 (1H)-110

0.91u

Eastern Conference 1H unders in Game 5-on 45-15 (75%) since 2018 when O/U in 114 or below. Last 3 1Hs in this series 104, 107, 106.

BOS -300

See this being in the -350 range closer to tip

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NBA Public Betting

Celtics are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Celtics are 2-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Celtics are 19-19 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Celtics' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 22 of Celtics' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Celtics	42-36-4	23-17-1	19-19-3	41-34-4	1-2
Heat	40-39-3	16-25	24-14-3	23-21-3	17-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Celtics	43-38-1	22-19	21-19-1	42-36-1	1-2
Heat	35-47	21-20	14-27	23-24	12-23

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Celtics	16-3	N/A	N/A	63-16	1-2
Heat	1-4	N/A	N/A	35-12	11-24

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 24th	@MIA	W 116-99	+1.5 W	U 216.5	BOS +100
May 22nd	@MIA	L 102-128	-4.5 L	O 214	MIA -180
May 20th	MIA	L 105-111	-9.5 L	O 214.5	MIA -450
May 18th	MIA	L 116-123	-8.5 L	O 212.5	MIA -377
May 14th	PHI	W 112-88	-6 W	U 201.5	BOS -245