Knicks vs. Lakers Odds & Betting Predictions - March 7, 2025

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Is this Lakers team too good to be true? Perhaps – but the NBA is very much about hot and cold streaks and right now they are playing an elite level of basketball. It’s easy to point to the offense, as LeBron is averaging nearly 29 points over his last 15 games while simultaneously finding a great chemistry with Doncic. But the defense has been the story. LA boasts the #1 defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games, while the Knicks are 22nd during that same stretch. The Knicks have had a predictable theme this season – whenever they step up in competition they fall flat. Look no further than a beat down they suffered at the Garden last month to these very Lakers. Last season New York was a reliable dog and a very reliable road team, but the script has flipped on them this season – the Knicks are 3-6 ATS as a road dog and just 14-15 ATS on the road overall. Dare I say my home team is… overrated. Los Angeles is 20-11 ATS at home and on a 12-3 ATS run with the Luka-LeBron duo. These two get up for the big games and this is certainly one of them in primetime.

The New York Knicks and the Los Angeles Lakers will clash from LA on Thursday Night. New York comes into the contest with a record of 40-21. The Knicks have supported the third-best record in the Eastern Conference, trailing the second-place Boston Celtics by 2.5 games. Veteran Jalen Brunson leads the Knicks with 26.1 points per game and 7.4 assists. The Lakers begin the contest with a record of 39-21. That record places JJ Reddick's team second in the Western Conference. Los Angeles has been hot lately, winning seven consecutive games and eight of their last ten. Lebron James leads the squad with 24.9 points per game, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.5 assists Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -4 -110 Few teams in the NBA are playing better basketball right now than the Lakers. Los Angeles has been one of the best home teams in basketball this season ATS (20-11). New York has rarely been an underdog but has struggled as a dog with a 3-6 ATS record. James and company will continue their winning ways on their home floor and earn a cover tonight.

What I love is when your projection doesn’t think that a hot team that has been unstoppable is favored by *enough*. That’s a great feeling. I make this Lakers -4.5 and love the spot. Relevant trends: * Since The Trade, the Lakers are 9th in offense. This season, the Knicks are 29th in defense against top 10 offenses, with a -3 spread differential. * Since the Trade, the Lakers are No.1 in defensive rating. This season, the Knicks are 8-13 straight up with a -4.2 spread differential against top-10 defensive teams. * Overall, the Knicks are 6-11 SU with a -6.9 spread differential against teams top-10 in point differential. They get vanquished by good teams. From a basketball perspective, the Knicks want to get to their pick-and-roll game with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. With Jaxson Hayes at center and playing more mobile wings, the Lakers have been able to switch things a lot easier, which is the best way to defend it. The Lakers have been able to cover for their defensive liabilities significantly better than the Knicks have. Rui Hachimura being out is a problem; it creates the need for Dalton Knecht to play, which the Knicks can take advantage of, but New York hasn’t been elite at hunting out those weaknesses. For the Lakers offensively, the Knicks are really good at containing threes, and that’s been a huge part of the Lakers’ identity since the trade. The Lakers are just 23rd in points in the paint since The Trade, where the Knicks have real weaknesses. I lean a little bit towards a Lakers team total under, but the Knicks defense may prove to be the weaker component.