Nets vs. Bulls Odds & Betting Predictions - December 3, 2024

THE BOUNCE 📽️: 27.13 PRA **Why the Line is High** 1. Injuries and Absences: With Brooklyn's roster depleted (DFS, Ben Simmons, Cam Thomas, and Bojan all out), Schroder is expected to take on a larger role offensively and as a facilitator. 2. Matchup Metrics: Chicago’s defense allows the most points and assists and ranks 5th in rebounds allowed per game, while leading the league in pace. On paper, this should create opportunities for Schroder to contribute across the board. 3. Recent Form: Schroder has cleared this mark in 2 of his last 3 games, with high shot volume and efficient three-point shooting (4 threes in each of those two games). --- **Why the Under is a Strong Play** 1. Matchup Specifics: While Chicago allows a lot of production overall, they defend point guards better: 6th-most points allowed to PGs 1st in assists to PGs 20th in rebounds to PGs This suggests Schroder may face defensive challenges comparatively. 2. Three-Point Defense: Schroder’s recent success has been buoyed by hot three-point shooting. However, Chicago ranks 12th in limiting threes to PGs and 16th overall, which could limit his efficiency from deep. 3. Quality of Surrounding Players: With Brooklyn’s roster thinned out, Schroder is more likely to draw defensive attention. His teammates’ ability to finish plays and convert assists could be significantly diminished, making it harder for him to rack up PRA. 4. Blowout Potential: Chicago’s pace and scoring ability could lead to a lopsided game, potentially limiting Schroder’s minutes late if the contest gets out of hand.

Fliff

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Schroder has seen a team-leading 5.2% usage rate bump with Cam Thomas off the floor. His assist rate has jumped by a massive 12%. Schroder is averaging 23.8 points and 8.8 assists per 36 minutes with Thomas on the bench. Ben Simmons is also out. Schroder has gotten usage and assist rate bumps without Simmons as well. With both Simmons and Thomas off the floor, Schroder has a silly 45.7% assist rate across 229 minutes this season. That's not a huge sample, but it's not nothing either. Chicago is a tremendous matchup. They're 29th in defensive rating, 30th in points allowed per game, and 1st in pace. Chicago has allowed the most assists per game. They've given up the 7th-most points and the most assists per game to point guards. It's an awesome spot all around, and Schroder should be heavily involved tonight.

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Ole reliable

You can find this at 26.5 at other places with slightly more juice but I’ll be playing this on Underdog at 25.5. Going half a unit because their injury report hasn’t been released yet. This opened at 26.5 and dropped to 25.5, but I don’t know if it’ll move back up. I expect Ben Simmons to sit and Cam Johnson to play, but this is just a guess. I have no idea on where Dorian Finney-Smith is with his ankle injury. Averaging 18.5 PRA this season over 25 minutes. He did get up to 27 minutes last game before getting ejected in the 4th. This is a favorable matchup for him as Bulls allow the most points, assists and 4th most rebounds per game. Still, they have Trendon Watford to soak up some big minutes and this is a pretty large number for Claxton given his season averages. Taking a shot here even though I do expect them to be short-handed.

Avery