Nuggets vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - June 10, 2023

Nuggets at Heat

12:30 am • ABC

Denver Nuggets

4-1

108

108 - 95

Miami Heat

1-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nuggets 4-1	-3-110	o211.5-110	-146
Heat 1-4	+3-110	u211.5-110	+124

Saturday 12:30 a.m.

June 10, 2023

Kaseya CenterMiami

MIA -195 (4Q)

1.5u

M.Porter o17.5 Pts+Rebs-110

MIA +2.5 (Live)-112

1.5u

MIA +4-130

0.35u

Under 211.5-110

0.91u

Follow all my bets at FTNBets.com!

Under 106.5 (1H)-110

MIA +1.5 (1H)-110

1.1u

MIA +3-105

2.1u

Over 211.5-105

2.1u

K.Caldwell-Pope u1.5 Ast-170

Under in 2-of-3 this series and 6-of-8 playoff road games overall. Could also lose some minutes to Braun.

D.Robinson u1.5 Ast-250

Under in 15-of-20 (75%) playoff games.

A.Gordon u12.5 Pts-125

12 or less in 5-of-8 playoff road games and hasn't cleared this since Love began starting.

DEN o106.5-120

$100.00

Under 106.5 (1H)-106

2.36u

MIA +110 (1Q)

1.65u

Over 210.5-110

MIA +3.5-110

0.5u

D.Robinson u7.5 Pts-130

1.3u

-180 on DK. Min. trending down as MIA tightens rotation. DEN looks to have figured him out & are staying home on shooters, navigating screens better. Caleb + Highsmith can keep him off the court if he’s a liability. #PlayerProps

J.Butler u40.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-122

Just too high of a number with the pace of this series. To put the pace into context - these teams are averaging less than 91 possessions per game, more than 5 possessions slower than the slowest team in the NBA this season. So the bump in Butler’s minutes really doesn’t weigh as heavy in my mind. I know the role is big, but he’s really struggled from an efficiency standpoint on his drives, and Denver has been pretty good closing out on shooters this series. I know Miami will continue to hunt the smaller matchups for Jimmy, but I do expect that to be a defensive focal point/adjustment today. Jimmy hasn’t got much going vs AG at all. In the 14 games since his ankle injury: averaging 36.5 PRA, under in 8/14, incl 3/3 vs DEN.

C.Martin o5.5 Rebs+Ast-125

MIA +3.5-110

1.1u

I think I read the script right.

MIA +1.5 (1H)-112

1.12u

I think I read the script right

J.Murray u25.5 Pts-108

Easiest way MIA can adjust is to stop him & not Jokic. 20 PTS in 1st half & 6 FTs in garbage time. In 2nd half, MIA went small to hedge, blitz, & trap Jamal early in halfcourt poss. More Highsmith min. could help too. #PlayerProps

MIA +110 (1Q)

1.1u

@HPBasketball

Under 106.5 (1H)-112

0.89u

@HPBasketball

DEN o106.5-118

0.5u

C.Braun o4.5 Pts-105

1.05u

Not your typical “Rookie”. Coming off 15 PTS & benefits off cuts in the weakside of Miami’s zone coverage. His toolset & defense are made for this series unlike vs. LAL. Malone & players continue to rave about him. #PlayerProps

B.Brown o9.5 Pts-125

0.8u

J.Butler o26.5 Pts-110

1.43u

Write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-bet-jimmy-butler-nuggets-vs-heat-june-9

DEN -3.5-110

DEN o107.5-110

N.Jokic u30.5 Pts-109

$50.00

MIA +3.5-110

$55.00

DEN o117.5+500

0.5u

Shortest rest spot of the Finals and I think that should impact Miami’s ability to defend even moreso. Can see Denver looking to push the Pace and get out in transition.

J.Butler Double-Double (Yes)+330

0.3u

C.Martin o14.5 Pts+500

0.25u

DEN -3.5-110

DEN o106.5-115

J.Murray o9.5 Ast+255

0.51u

Best Bets: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-finals-odds-best-bets-expert-picks-nuggets-vs-heat-predictions-june-9

J.Murray o7.5 Ast-120

0.83u

Jamal Murray has been incredible throughout the NBA Finals. While he’s an elite scoring threat, his proficiency as a passer has shone through. Murray has recorded 10 assists in each game so far on 18 potential assists per game. The Nuggets are crushing the Heat with the Murray/Jokic Pick and Roll, and Murray is averaging 5.7 assists just to Jokic! This is a huge advantage Denver has and I expect them to continue using this successful play. Murray’s assists prop has climbed in each game so far and now is at 7.5, but it’s simply not high enough given Murray’s usage. I’ll take the 7.5 assists and also play 10+ at (+255 DK). There’s a bit more value in the 10+ than Double Double because Murray’s rebounding has seen an uptick but generally, he’d be getting that through the assists.

DEN o106.5-115

0.65u

N.Jokic u54.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.87u

K.Lowry o15.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-113

0.88u

N.Jokic o12.5 Rebs-132

DEN o106.5-115

0.87u

@wheatonbrando

G.Vincent o12.5 Pts-122

Under 106.5 (1H)-110

0.91u

Finals Game 4 1H under 14-4 (78%) since 2005, including 10-0 when home down 2-1.

Over 210.5-110

2.2u

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NBA Public Betting

Heat are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Heat are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Heat are 24-14 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Heat' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Heat' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	40-39-3	16-25	24-14-3	23-21-3	17-18
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Heat	35-47	21-20	14-27	23-24	12-23
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	1-4	N/A	N/A	35-12	11-24
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 8th	DEN	L 94-109	+3.5 L	U 213	DEN +140
Jun 5th	@DEN	W 111-108	+8 W	O 216.5	MIA +270
Jun 2nd	@DEN	L 93-104	+8.5 L	U 218.5	DEN +290
May 30th	@BOS	W 103-84	+7.5 W	U 204	MIA +230
May 28th	BOS	L 103-104	+2 W	U 209	BOS +105