Anthony Edwards is back in action tonight vs. the Nuggets in a Western Conference playoffs rematch. Last spring, Edwards went HAM on Denver and helped lead the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals. But by the end of the series, Denver had figured out how to contain the explosive new face of the NBA.
Will Edwards get loose vs. Denver's defense or will the Nuggets be able to lock him up? Here's how to bet Anthony Edwards' points tonight.
NBA Prop Best Bet: Anthony Edwards Points Over/Under 26.5 (DraftKings)
Edwards has only gone over this total in eight of his past 27 meetings vs. Denver, including the playoffs. However, when he has gone over, he's gone wave over, reaching 30 points in six of those eight games. Edwards is shooting way more 3s this season — averaging 16.5 3-point attempts per 100 possessions and making 6.9.
In the eight games where Edwards went over this points line, he averaged 3.5 3s per game, including one where he hit zero. If he makes one, he's averaged four per game.
The Nuggets will play their base defense on him, with Christian Braun defending Edwards in isolation and Nikola Jokic playing drop. But the Nuggets switch 1-4 in any action that doesn't involve Jokic. That means that Edwards, if he wants, can switch Braun off of him, get another defender like Michael Porter Jr. or some of the bench wings like Julian Strawther on him, and go to work attacking Jokic after the switch.
Denver's done a good job preventing 3s in pick-and-roll, but Edwards has also created 3s spotting up, and Denver is horrible in that category, allowing the seventh-most catch-and-shoot attempts.
All of this is to say, if Edwards goes over, he's likely to get 30+ and hits a bunch of 3s. Instead of playing his points line vs. Denver straight up, we can do a same game parlay at DraftKings of 30+ points and over 3.5 made 3s for +176. That's much better value given the correlation. Maybe Edwards just dunks all over Denver, but it's likely he'll get his points from deep and put up a big number, no matter if Denver wins or not.
Anthony Edwards Points Prop Pick: Same Game Parlay Anthony Edwards 30+points and Over 3.5 made 3s (+176 at DraftKings)
